USHCN 2.5 – Estimated Warming By Year and Month

Published on by sunshinehours1

This is the 3rd or 4th post on USHCN warming. You can read more here.

Today I have taken the Final data from 1895 to 2013 and am comparing the average for each month Estimated to Real in Celsius.

As you can see, in all cases the Estimated data is warmer. What a shock! (Not really).

Month Estimated Real Estimated minus Real
Jan 0.17 -1.02 1.19
Feb 1.95 0.8 1.15
Mar 6.39 5.42 0.97
Apr 11.53 10.85 0.68
May 16.45 15.96 0.49
Jun 21.05 20.54 0.51
Jul 23.61 23.21 0.4
Aug 22.86 22.37 0.49
Sep 18.94 18.42 0.52
Oct 12.97 12.45 0.52
Nov 6.5 5.82 0.68
Dec 1.5 0.54 0.96

The next table is just the difference for each year and month. If Estimated is larger than Real, then the color will be red, otherwise blue. If the difference is more than 1 or -1, then bold will emphasize.

Red means the Estimated data is hotter than the non-estimated for that year and month.

Blue is much rarer than red. And bold blue is very rare indeed.

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1895 0.12 -0.29 0.04 0.06 -0.38 0.22 -0.2 -0.21 -0.31 0.09 0.26 0.67
1896 0.78 0.9 1.08 1.21 0.84 0.54 0.15 0.29 0.39 0.43 0.4 0.1
1897 -0.24 0.48 0.66 0.23 -0.14 -0.07 0.03 -0.11 0.44 -0.11 -0.19 0.9
1898 -0.27 0.16 -0.24 0.16 -0.41 -0.05 0 0.23 0.03 -0.82 -0.93 -0.35
1899 0.17 -0.03 0.39 -0.37 -0.33 -0.54 -0.28 -0.23 0.14 -0.47 0.18 0.26
1900 0.89 0.97 1.35 0.56 -0.35 -0.05 -0.11 -0.22 -0.34 -0.74 -0.23 0.48
1901 1.57 1.74 1.16 0.43 0.24 -0.07 0.16 0.26 -0.22 -0.05 0.17 0.42
1902 1.25 0.74 -0.3 0.37 0.25 -0.1 0.09 0.18 0.01 -0.25 -0.6 0.87
1903 0.26 0.58 0.17 0.68 -0.27 0.45 0.44 0.69 0.38 0.6 0.53 1.15
1904 1.16 2.62 2.11 1.34 0.67 0.92 0.39 0.92 0.34 0.29 0.7 0.72
1905 0.84 1.04 0.67 -0.12 -0.07 -0.3 0.04 0.21 0.02 -0.99 -0.05 -0.09
1906 -0.59 0.19 -0.05 0.05 -0.43 0.06 0.39 0.45 0.22 0.03 -0.27 0.69
1907 -0.59 0.76 -0.06 0.16 -0.05 -0.34 -0.56 -0.55 -0.55 0.05 -0.19 -0.5
1908 0.6 1.07 1.28 0.34 -0.38 -0.63 -0.21 -0.25 -0.4 -0.58 -0.04 -0.34
1909 -0.14 -0.15 0.05 -0.62 -1.05 -0.93 -0.42 -0.63 -0.62 -0.2 -0.81 -0.28
1910 0.45 0.01 -0.19 -0.14 0.18 0.26 0.16 0.04 0.41 -0.71 -0.45 0.86
1911 -0.29 -0.92 0.64 0.23 -0.73 -0.1 -0.48 -0.48 -0.59 -1.21 -0.93 -1.71
1912 0.52 0.77 -0.39 -1.29 -0.63 -0.29 -0.21 0.11 -0.8 -1.14 -0.63 -1.13
1913 -0.49 0.49 0.01 -0.33 0.13 0.1 0.35 0.11 0.11 0.05 -0.23 -0.81
1914 0.3 -0.11 0.46 -0.09 -0.24 0.02 0.35 0.51 0.03 -0.25 0.53 0.33
1915 0.32 0.27 0.92 -0.3 -0.32 -0.81 -0.32 0.4 -0.19 -0.2 0.21 0.87
1916 -0.95 1.24 1.12 0.31 -0.29 0.34 -0.04 0.15 0.11 -0.18 -0.07 -0.13
1917 -0.26 1.36 0.54 0.37 0.52 0.84 0.39 0.42 0.96 1.34 0.75 2.01
1918 1.65 1.44 0.36 0.67 -0.23 0.64 0.4 0.48 0.65 0.89 0.26 0.45
1919 0.38 0.68 0.44 0.33 0.26 0.25 0.06 0.27 0.32 0.06 -0.15 0.11
1920 -0.23 0 0.04 -0.12 0.35 0.35 0.36 -0.03 -0.31 -0.24 -1.1 -1.55
1921 -0.48 0.04 -0.06 -0.22 0.16 0.07 0.24 0.49 1.12 0.9 1.9 1.18
1922 0.74 1.04 0.84 0.06 0.24 0.96 1 0.29 -0.28 -0.31 -0.52 0.79
1923 1.07 0.4 0.58 0.63 0.44 0.57 0.64 0.43 0.57 -0.28 0.35 0.61
1924 1.11 0.85 0.35 0.55 0.4 0.72 -0.13 0.17 0.21 0.08 0.78 1.65
1925 1.15 1.3 0.76 0.57 0.84 0.72 0.54 -0.03 0.1 1.05 0.39 0.56
1926 0.62 0.8 0.26 0.37 0.12 0.05 -0.19 0.18 0.13 0.11 0.68 0.87
1927 0.66 1.66 1.22 1.51 1.05 0.39 0.3 0.39 0.75 0.72 0.56 1.4
1928 1.72 1.14 0.81 0.82 0.23 0.48 -0.13 0.52 0.33 0.75 0.16 0.79
1929 1.2 1.5 1.22 0.28 0.4 0.32 0.56 0.33 1.16 0.81 0.71 0.9
1930 1.6 1.2 1.13 1.28 0.41 0.44 0.42 0.18 0.71 0.38 0.9 1.29
1931 0.72 1.08 0.95 1 1 1.09 1.11 1.02 0.71 0.89 1.55 2.38
1932 2.79 3.21 2.77 0.53 0.34 0.07 0.08 -0.3 0.02 0.64 1.28 1.63
1933 0.5 1.75 0.86 0.16 0.35 0.15 0.17 -0.39 0.27 0.81 0.81 1.63
1934 0.72 0.89 0.46 0.32 0.33 0.65 0.26 0.35 0.35 0.27 -0.09 0.07
1935 1.64 1.13 1.69 0.54 0.41 0.23 0.19 0.38 0.29 0.4 -0.41 0.98
1936 1.35 0.82 0.89 0.12 -0.08 0.03 -0.12 0.82 0.31 0.39 -0.11 0.94
1937 -1.3 0.45 1.19 0.47 0.35 0.17 0.21 0.71 1 1.11 0.74 1.24
1938 1.14 0.36 -0.11 0.11 0.35 0.45 0.52 0.63 0.61 0.71 2.21 1.6
1939 2.08 2.43 1.33 1.17 0.59 0.91 0.39 0.04 1.17 0.95 1 1.01
1940 2.19 1.81 2.04 1.62 1.01 0.94 0.65 0.96 0.9 0.83 1.36 1
1941 1.98 1.7 1.58 0.55 0.33 0.68 0.31 0.76 0.63 0.8 0.75 0.99
1942 1.53 1.4 1.28 0.6 1.13 1.01 0.65 0.73 0.52 0.81 1.12 1.96
1943 2.79 2.13 2.21 1.56 1.28 0.86 0.74 1.49 1.44 1.31 1.83 2.08
1944 1.86 3.17 2.79 2.1 1.24 1.75 1.66 1.47 1.37 0.97 0.62 1.64
1945 2.6 1.55 0.5 1.36 1.42 1.22 1.12 0.81 1.41 1.34 1.29 1.8
1946 1.31 1.42 0.78 0.69 0.85 0.64 0.35 0.53 0.46 1.09 1.63 1.11
1947 1.74 1.8 1.67 1.74 1.46 1.74 0.69 0.94 1.15 0.95 1.7 1.24
1948 1.74 1.75 2.07 1.99 1.39 1.58 1.42 1.2 1.15 1.41 1.58 2.71
1949 3.09 2.72 2.35 1.18 1.07 1.23 1.26 1.09 0.95 1.21 1.12 1.58
1950 2.17 1.89 1.21 1.02 0.96 0.61 0.48 0.18 0.42 0.39 0.19 -0.22
1951 0.1 0.24 -0.1 0.11 0.53 0.86 0.83 0.98 1.05 0.39 0.94 1.45
1952 1.74 1.23 1.03 0.49 0.87 1.05 0.57 0.88 1.18 1.36 1.27 1.84
1953 2.57 2.28 1.89 1.42 1.54 1.23 1.07 1.05 1.05 1.23 1.3 2.37
1954 3.03 1.96 1.8 1.71 1.14 1 0.98 1.3 1.56 1.55 1.07 1.56
1955 2.4 2.56 2.84 1.47 1.44 0.89 0.53 0.56 0.73 1.07 2.66 2.38
1956 2.34 2.75 2.63 2.04 1.64 0.94 0.8 0.99 1.35 0.9 0.89 1.51
1957 2.08 1.76 0.49 0.71 0.67 0.82 0.23 0.81 1.06 0.76 0.64 0.99
1958 1.26 1.86 0.85 0.66 0.8 0.91 0.49 0.23 0.34 0.51 1.05 1.97
1959 1.71 1.83 1.35 1.03 0.5 0.41 0.48 0.23 0.93 1.37 1.87 1.03
1960 1.63 1.78 1.47 1.58 1.6 1.22 0.62 1.09 1.09 1.07 1.2 0.73
1961 0.49 1.19 1.12 1.15 0.97 0.6 0.76 0.49 0.44 0.66 1.3 1.82
1962 2.18 2.52 1.54 1.73 2.17 1.69 1.39 1.52 1.58 1.67 1.54 1.83
1963 2.97 2.51 1.71 1.53 1.51 0.88 0.69 0.99 1.1 0.9 1.32 2.04
1964 1.83 1.6 2 1.69 1.12 1.32 0.59 0.73 1.34 0.82 1.69 2.19
1965 2.19 2.71 2.31 2.27 1.35 1.15 0.95 1.06 1.98 1.16 1.98 1.28
1966 1.9 1.88 1.31 1.23 0.77 0.31 0.4 0.6 0.48 0.55 1.27 1.16
1967 1.9 2.34 2.17 1.23 0.92 0.35 0.62 0.92 0.69 0.7 0.78 0.62
1968 2.15 2.09 1.05 0.98 0.35 0.16 0.44 0.32 0.07 0.59 0.06 0.38
1969 1.2 0.12 0.42 0.02 0.14 0.44 -0.02 0.43 0.16 -0.12 0.04 -0.31
1970 0.61 0.1 0.39 0.06 -0.03 -0.4 -0.28 -0.37 -0.24 -0.07 0.57 0.81
1971 0.61 -0.16 0.34 -0.45 -0.37 -0.25 -0.54 -0.32 -0.37 -1.2 -0.15 -0.25
1972 0.54 0.3 0.29 -0.46 -0.11 0.12 0.66 0.05 0.6 0.97 0.67 1.59
1973 0.97 1.11 0.38 0.35 0.47 -0.01 -0.28 0.31 -0.33 -0.02 0.53 0.92
1974 1.64 0.14 1.1 1.02 1.64 0.84 0.26 1 1.16 0.67 0.15 0.7
1975 2.37 1.31 0.6 0.76 0.69 0.95 0.51 0.8 1.21 0.78 0.9 1.61
1976 2.12 1.92 1.16 1.12 0.65 0.57 0.81 0.71 0.79 0.43 1.05 1
1977 2.2 1.74 0.42 0.29 -0.14 0.6 0.18 0.55 0.32 0.39 0.14 1.96
1978 2.17 2.74 1.95 0.79 0.33 0.32 0.58 0.6 1.02 1.25 1.09 1.57
1979 2.13 2.65 1.21 1.24 0.65 0.53 0.57 0.73 0.79 0.68 0.28 0.05
1980 -0.13 0.89 0.32 0.28 0.41 1.01 1.3 0.62 0.44 0.59 0.33 0.88
1981 0.91 0.81 0.4 0.72 0.05 0.43 0.51 0.57 0.67 0.8 1.03 1.76
1982 3.21 2.28 1.64 1.23 0.59 0.57 0.39 1.14 1.49 1.42 2.14 2.52
1983 1.18 1.55 1.46 1.44 1.45 1.44 1.46 0.99 1.3 1.18 1.04 1.53
1984 1.56 1.75 1.82 1.23 1.24 1.03 0.73 0.6 1.22 1.37 0.91 1.72
1985 2.37 1.79 1.2 0.64 0.51 0.5 0.14 0.11 0.13 0.37 -0.62 -0.18
1986 0.22 0.82 0.45 0.1 -0.06 0.22 0.38 0.07 0.19 -0.23 0.19 0.12
1987 -0.03 -0.03 -0.06 0.21 -0.38 0.02 0.33 0.21 0.24 0.8 0.19 0.5
1988 0.16 0.84 0.53 0.42 -0.14 0.48 0.27 0.21 0.53 1.23 0.87 1.19
1989 1.3 1.43 1.7 1.43 0.76 0.45 0.61 0.46 0.96 0.33 0.65 0.85
1990 0.6 1.47 1.06 0.71 0.89 0.23 0.31 0.29 0.13 0.52 0.54 0.53
1991 0.2 0.43 -0.87 -0.35 -0.11 -0.55 -0.22 -0.15 0.66 -0.31 0.72 -0.14
1992 -0.31 -0.15 -0.29 0.34 0.13 0 0.24 0.3 0.02 -0.07 -0.69 -0.15
1993 -0.78 0.22 0.13 -0.41 -0.05 -0.46 0.05 -0.06 0.04 0.34 0.6 0.75
1994 1.62 1.72 1.15 0.88 0.45 0.34 0.48 0.31 0.37 0.74 1.25 0.81
1995 1.36 0.96 0.67 0.06 -0.14 0.36 -0.05 -0.33 0.09 -0.08 0.94 1.04
1996 1.23 1.51 0.81 0.66 -0.12 -0.02 0.44 0.14 -0.01 -0.28 0.68 0.19
1997 0.43 0.7 0.1 0.42 0.73 -0.22 0.16 0.47 0.04 0.61 0.84 0.44
1998 0.76 -0.3 0.62 0.23 -0.39 -0.34 -0.13 -0.17 -0.43 0.31 1.3 0.54
1999 0.65 1.02 0.27 0.69 0.46 0.48 0.2 0.77 0.6 0.44 0.49 0.43
2000 1.46 1.21 0.3 0.8 0.16 0.42 0.39 0.84 0.51 0.89 1.11 1.13
2001 1.69 1.95 1.58 1.16 0.53 1.21 1.28 0.81 1.21 1.1 1.56 1.36
2002 1 1.19 1.1 1.45 1.06 1.28 1.28 1.33 0.82 2.34 1.58 1.46
2003 2.79 2.3 1.38 1.1 1.24 1.19 1.57 1.19 0.86 1.23 0.87 1.95
2004 2.17 1.21 2 1.3 0.97 1.6 1.12 1.4 0.83 1.03 0.71 1.55
2005 2.55 1.57 2.26 0.74 1.36 0.32 0.74 1.3 0.52 0.95 0.61 1.22
2006 -0.1 1.36 1.29 0.17 0.5 0.26 -0.05 0.21 0.52 0.54 0.54 0.35
2007 0.37 1.33 0.96 0.86 0.58 0.45 0.05 0.29 0.03 0.14 1.04 1.63
2008 1.17 1.8 1.6 -0.1 -0.18 0.48 0.19 0.28 0.22 0.37 0.6 1.99
2009 2.74 1.54 1.3 0.67 0.26 0.84 0.93 0.7 0.86 0.6 1.15 1.07
2010 2.51 1.8 1.06 0.51 0.51 0.99 0.36 0.87 0.28 0.62 0.47 1.59
2011 2.17 1.84 1.87 0.96 -0.12 0.82 0.79 1.02 1.27 1.38 1.19 1.29
2012 2.1 2.83 0.95 1.39 0.96 1.33 0.63 1.2 1.13 1.63 1.56 1.56
2013 1.64 1.56 2.02 1.36 0.69 0.97 0.7 0.85 1.04 1.04 2.05 2.56

One thought on “USHCN 2.5 – Estimated Warming By Year and Month”

  1. hmm Feb 2012 raw vs adjusted were a massive ~+3C yet the NSDC for month ranks as 71/119?

    NOAA Feb report has it as 4th warmest winter (not Feb from what I see) since 1895

    Wonder how ‘adjustments’ were major factor in this? (as an aside do daily temps illuminate this at all? )

    With increased ground changes (more concrete/asphalt)/ AC use etc I fail to see how such a massive upward adjustment is justified, tho some ‘spatial’ crap excuse will no doubt be used.

    Massive disconnect happening between what we’re experiencing and what they say. I’m reminded of a film quote (apol for language in advance)

    ‘Don’t piss down my back and tell me it’s raining.’

    Reply

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