UK Paper Claims Pause Never Happened

The Daily Mail says:

Global warming is WORSE than we thought because the famous ‘pause’ between 1995 and 2013 never happened, claim experts

The UAH satellite data says otherwise.

Of course there are many global temperature sets and most have eradicated the pause.

But even the IPCC discussed “the pause” back in 2013.

And the Daily Mail wrote about it.

“Yet the leaked report makes the extraordinary concession that over the past 15 years, recorded world temperatures have increased at only a quarter of the rate of IPCC claimed when it published its last assessment in 2007.

Back then, it said observed warming over the 15 years from 1990-2005 had taken place at a rate of 0.2C per decade, and it predicted this would continue for the following 20 years, on the basis of forecasts made by computer climate models.

But the new report says the observed warming over the more recent 15 years to 2012 was just 0.05C per decade – below almost all computer predictions. “

graphic

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IPCC Statement About Last 3 Decades

“Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850”

My Response (using HADCRUT4 data)

Decade Mean Anomaly C

1850 -0.32
1860 -0.33
1870 -0.26
1880 -0.30
1890 -0.36
1900 -0.41
1910 -0.39
1920 -0.25
1930 -0.12
1940 0.00
1950 -0.06
1960 -0.05
1970 -0.08

Each of the 4 decades after the 1870s were successively COLDER at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850

Why did it take until the 1920s to get as warm as the 1870s?

Each of the 3 decades after the 1900s were successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850

But the next 3 decades after the 1940s were COLDER than the 1940s.

Why?

Explain your work.

IPCC AR5 Admits They Have No Clue What Caused the 15 Year Pause in Warming

From the leaked AR5 Summary:

“The observed reduction in warming trend over the period 1998–2012 as compared to the period 1951–1 2012, is due in roughly equal measure to a cooling contribution from internal variability and a reduced trend in radiative forcing (medium confidence). The reduced trend in radiative forcing is primarily due to volcanic eruptions and the downward phase of the current solar cycle. However, there is low confidence in quantifying the role of changes in radiative forcing in causing this reduced warming trend. {Box 9.2; 10.3.1; Box 10.2}”

Translation: It was the sun. Or super secret volcanoes. Or something.

IPCC AR5 Admits They Have No Clue About the Arctic and the Antarctic

From the leaked AR5 Summary:

There is robust evidence that the downward trend in Arctic summer sea ice extent since 1979 is now better simulated than at the time of the AR4, with about one-quarter of the models showing a trend as large as, or larger than, the trend in the observations. Most models simulate a small decreasing trend in  Antarctic sea ice extent, albeit with large inter-model spread, in contrast to the small increasing trend in 30 observations. {9.4.3}

“one-quarter of the models showing a trend as large as, or larger than, the trend in the observations”

Translation: 75% of the models were wrong about Arctic Sea Ice. But we’ll claim we got it right when we only got it right 25% of the time.

“Most models simulate a small decreasing trend in  Antarctic sea ice extent

Translation: None of the models got Antarctic Sea Ice right.

What a joke.