BBC: Heatwaves “More Likely” claim is ruined by the data

Paul Homewood discusses¬†BBC claims that Heatwaves are more likely due to climate change. And because 2014 was the “hottest” year.

So I decided to look at the HADCET MAXTEMP data.

Not the average. The maximum.

I then arbitrarily set the heatwave boundary at 25C.

And then calculated the number of days over 25 and the longest stretch (ie Heatwave).

Guess what? 2014 barely ranks. Only 8 days above 25.  1911 had 29! (See large table at bottom for 25C heatwaves)

What if I set the Heatwave definition at 30C? There are only 8 years that have days over 30C.

1976 is the winner. And 1976 was 39 years ago! (Corrected from 30)

The 30C days and temps.

“1976-07-01” “1976-07-02” “1976-07-03” “1976-07-04” “1976-07-05” “1976-07-06” “1976-07-07”
“30.6” “31.8” “33.2” “31.4” “31.4” “31.6” “30.4”

30C Heatwaves

Year Days Longest Heatwave
1976 9 7
1995 5 4
1975 4 2
1906 3 3
1948 3 3
2006 3 2
1923 2 2
1990 2 2

25C Heatwave.

Year Days Longest Heatwave
1976 33 16
1995 33 10
1911 29 4
2006 26 7
1947 25 10
2003 23 10
1949 22 6
1933 21 6
1893 19 6
1921 19 6
1955 19 5
1975 19 8
1983 18 7
1989 18 7
1899 17 4
1887 16 3
1959 16 3
1990 16 4
1997 16 7
2013 16 8
2005 15 5
1884 14 5
1900 14 3
1935 14 4
1999 14 5
2001 13 5
1941 12 3
1878 11 6
1897 11 4
1898 11 5
1934 11 8
1970 11 5
1984 10 5
1901 9 5
1925 9 3
1942 9 4
1982 9 2
1991 9 3
1994 9 3
1996 9 5
2004 9 2
1906 8 5
1929 8 3
1957 8 4
1960 8 3
1969 8 3
1986 8 4
2014 8 5
1896 7 2
1919 7 2
1923 7 3
1944 7 3
1952 7 2
1973 7 4
1886 6 3
1895 6 2
1908 6 3
1914 6 2
1926 6 4
1937 6 2
1940 6 4
1945 6 3
1946 6 5
1961 6 2
2010 6 2
2011 6 3
1881 5 2
1885 5 4
1918 5 3
1930 5 4
1948 5 5
1953 5 2
1977 5 5
1987 5 2
1992 5 2
1998 5 4
2000 5 3
2009 5 4
1891 4 4
1902 4 2
1904 4 2
1912 4 3
1922 4 2
1928 4 2
1932 4 2
1936 4 3
1939 4 4
1943 4 2
1950 4 4
1963 4 2
1968 4 2
2008 4 2
1894 3 2
1905 3 2
1917 3 2
1978 3 2
1980 3 2
1988 3 2
2002 3 2
1880 2 2
1924 2 2
1972 2 2
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