GWPF is having a contest to guess 2019’s Temperature.
My chart of HADCRUT temperatures is below. Note how close Feb 2018 came to Feb 1878! .403 to .528
With GWPF readers having trounced the Met Office at predicting temperatures for 2018, it will very interesting to see if you can do just as well for 2019.
So we hereby announce the 2019 HadCRUT temperature prediction competition. Once again, the opportunity is there to win some magnificent prizes: more whisky, and your choice of a book from the growing range of GWPF titles.
Of course the real prize on offer is to do better than the boys in Exeter. The Met Office are again being very aggressive on the warming front. They are predicting a 0.19°C warming next year (!), plus or minus 0.12°C. So their predicted range is 0.67-0.91°C.
So will carbon dioxide sweep all before it as they think? Will temperatures creep back further, shoot back up again, or will they keep sliding away? Will El Nino kick in, or will La Nina dominate? Your guess is probably as good as mine, but – if experience is anything to go by – probably better than the Met Office’s.
To enter, simply fill in the form below. Please make sure to enter just a single number representing the HadCRUT4 global average for 2019, in anomaly format, to two decimal places. The current value is 0.60. In the event of a draw, the judges will pull a name out of a hat.
HadCRUT4 is a gridded dataset of global historical surface temperature anomalies relative to a 1961-1990 reference period.
HADCRUT4 Feb 1878 0.403C
HADCRUT4 Feb 2014 0.299C
Michael Mann: “our planet would cross the dangerous warming threshold of two degrees C in 2036, only 22 years from now. ” (h/t Jeff Id)
Using HADCRUT4 and WoodForTrees I graphed the data from 1850 t0 2014, and then added in 2C of warming by 2036.
What a joke.
Update: The biggest rise over 22 years was March 1976 to February 1998 = 1.193C. The 4th biggest was March 1856 to February 1878 = 0.913C.
1878 to 1944 is 66 years. 1944 to 2010 is also 66 years. Let us put those peaks in temperature (using HADCRUT4 Global) in perspective.
1944 is red. 1878 is blue. Every year of HADCRUT4 is on the graph. The temperature is the anomaly from the 1961-1990 mean in Celsius. Click for bigger.
40 Years of Rising CO2 … 1940 to 1979. Officially CO2 measurements only started in the 50s, but I think one can extrapolate backwards.
CO2 didn’t have much effect. The Temperature trend over those 40 years was -0.026C per decade. About -0.1C for the 40 years.
Lets take a look at the same graph without the CO2 part.
Winter temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere are dropping as much as 2.5C / decade over the last 7 years.
Yesterday my post was a look at the northern hemisphere by month over the last 7 years.
Today I am looking at the same time frame, but I am using the gridded HADCRUT4 data for Dec/Jan/Feb only. You will have to click on the image to get the full effect.
There are 7 latitude bands with yellow highlighting. The trend in those is from -.44C/decade to -2.49C/decade. And note the green 0 line. 0 is the 1961-1990 average, Anywhere the graph or trend crosses the green line it is colder than the 1961-1990 average. It was pretty cold in the 60s and 70s.
I wish I didn’t live in the 50th parallel.
Do you live in the Northern Hemisphere.? Did anyone tell you that in the midst of record CO2 levels HADCRUT4 shows massively dropping winter temperatures?
At the bottom of this post is a graph of HADCRUT4 Northern Hemisphere only temperatures for each month for the last 7 years.
Did you know December was cooling at -.9C per decade? By 2100 December could be 8C colder?
Did you know January was cooling at -.73C per decade?
Did you know March was cooling at -.56C per decade?
Did you know February was cooling at -.19C per decade?
Did you know November was cooling at -.2C per decade?
Did you know October was cooling at -.17C per decade?
Did you know April was cooling at -.17C per decade?
I’m glad I have a wood stove.