sunshine hours

August 18, 2015

Sea Ice Extent – Day 229 – Antarctica’s Drop is not that Weird

Is Antarctica’s big drop strange? No.

For day 229  since around 2002 there has been 2-3 big jumps up in a row followed by a single very large drop and then more jumps up.

Antarctic Sea Ice Extent for Day 229 From 1978

South / North

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8 Comments »

  1. Interesting point, thanks.
    Interesting also that the trend upward is quite steady, despite the oscillations.
    I noted in the Cryosphere graph

    that in 2010, another year of El Nino, there was a similar drop in the Antarctic ice approximately at this time of the year.

    Comment by Dmh — August 18, 2015 @ 11:27 AM | Reply

  2. So what happened in or around y. 2000 that started the jump upwards in Antarctic extent? Up until that time there’s no discernible trend despite the known general upward strengthening of global temperatures between 1950-2000. Trenberth says “internal variability” overshadows the effects of CO2, but a multi-decadal lag time is bollocks. Thoughts as to what’s going on circa 2000? UAH/RSS show no global temperature increase either since that time. Lag effects from the super-El Niño of 1997-98? If so, how does it manifest itself in step-up fashioned extent?

    Comment by AZ1971 — August 18, 2015 @ 4:41 PM | Reply

    • AMO is a good choice.

      Comment by sunshinehours1 — August 18, 2015 @ 7:27 PM | Reply

    • I think solar radiations are an important component of the answer.
      The aa-index dropped dramatically since 2003, solar activity entered a new phase back to what it was at the beginning of the XX century and before,

      (not to mention the Linvingston-Penn effect and the predictions of even lower cycles after the present one)

      Lowering solar cycles are cooling Earth’s climate very fast.
      The large ENSO of 1997-98, was a sign (not a cause, IMO) of a step change of Earth’s climate from a warming phase into the present “hiatus” or “slightly cooling” phase,

      and the PDO is just reflecting these changes. There was a big spike in 1997-98 too similar to the present one,

      but now the S. Pacific and Atlantic oceans are majorly cold or neutral,

      In my opinion the present problems with the Polar icecaps are temporary and should revert until the end of this year.

      Comment by Dmh — August 21, 2015 @ 10:12 AM | Reply

    • Just to compare with the present El Nino, here is Bob Tisdale animation of the strong ENSO episode of 1997-2001

      from this post (2011)
      https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2011/07/26/enso-indices-do-not-represent-the-process-of-enso-or-its-impact-on-global-temperature/

      Note that, at its strongest phase, all oceans were warm or neutral, the entire world warmed as a whole.
      This is very different from what is happening now where we have important cold anomalies in Antarctica and good portions of the Atlantic and S. Pacific.

      Comment by Dmh — August 21, 2015 @ 11:16 AM | Reply

  3. Its from the PDO

    Comment by njsnowfan — August 18, 2015 @ 6:26 PM | Reply

  4. Bruce,
    Can you do PDO and Antarctica sea ice chart.
    Alarmist starting a feeding frenzy of the dip.
    Also pDO and ice debunks fresh waters from melting land glaciers caused the increase since 1979.

    Comment by njsnowfan — August 19, 2015 @ 4:31 AM | Reply

  5. […] https://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2015/08/18/sea-ice-extent-day-229-antarcticas-drop-is-not-that-w… I think solar radiations are an important component of the answer. The aa-index dropped […]

    Pingback by Nothing is happening with the Sun? | dmhscratch1 — August 21, 2015 @ 10:17 AM | Reply


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