Antarctic Ice Extent Anomaly % vs PDO

This graph compares Anomaly Percent (ie if the anomaly is 1,000,000 sq km and the mean is 10,000,000 the value would be 10%)

Antarctic anomaly_pct vs PDO

 

 

 

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3 thoughts on “Antarctic Ice Extent Anomaly % vs PDO

  1. The very warm PDO of the last ~2 years is the main cause of the strong oscillations of the Antarctic ice extent, from the quite stable previous state of positive anomalies since 2012.
    The increasing ice extent anomalies should return after the PDO goes down to neutral and negative again in about 6 months, more or less.

    One thing I don’t understand though is why it got so warm, especially at the end of 2014 and beginning of this year.
    A possible reason is a spike of the EUV (E10.7 index) that happened exactly during this period, which was also the highest – in the present solar cycle – since the end of 2011,

    from,
    http://www.spacewx.com/solar_cycle_trends.html
    The first spike of E10.7 flux corresponds to the Sun’s N. Pole maximum, the second spike is more prominent and corresponds to the the stronger S.Pole maximum.

    The magnetic NP of the Sun has been around zero micro-T since it crossed zero in 2011 (http://www.solen.info/solar/polarfields/polar.html)

    This is more than 4 years of low fields, after crossing. I believe it could be an indication of the LP-effect being proved correct.
    The anomalous PDO+ could be an indication of chaotic behavior due to the anomalous intensity of the NS-poles of the Sun.

  2. Why should the PDO return to normal or negative values in ± 6 months? The PDO has been stuck in high mode for four years and is prone to far more variability than is the AMO, which if anything should be reaching its peak about now and then headed into its negative phase. Should the PDO go negative while the AMO is also negative, then there is strong evidence that the global mean temperature also falls – as evidenced from a quick analysis on WoodForTrees.org.

    Of course, the stronger correlation is between the AMO and global temperatures – and we all know that the AMO turned negative and should remain so for the next couple decades at least. What that – along with a declining strength in the sun, and the prospect of a PDO turning negative – all means, is anybody’s guess. But the bookies in Las Vegas probably have some pretty high odds on it being “colder” rather than “warmer”.

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