Sea Ice Extent (Global Antarctic and Arctic) – Day 186 – 2016

If you graph Arctic sea ice from 2005 and 2010 there are two different stories.

Arctic Sea Ice Extent for Day 186 From 2010

 

Arctic Sea Ice Extent for Day 186 From 2005

South / North

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6 thoughts on “Sea Ice Extent (Global Antarctic and Arctic) – Day 186 – 2016

    1. Yes, that’s what happens with cycles.

      Funny that…

      Someone ought tell the climate “scientists” that there are very few linear processes in nature, so cherry-picking convenient portions of cyclic functions, linear-regressing them to Armageddon and running round screeching about the sky falling doesn’t work indefinitely.

    2. Arctic ice extent now is just a little below 2014.
      I think this is good because
      /1/ in 2014, at the end of the melt season the ice extent was nearly repeating the good conditions of 2013, it could happen again
      /2/ solar radiations are now *much lower* than 2014 (in fact, similar to 2006 or 1996, both years of minimum of their respective cycles). Neutron flux and sort-length UV are showing the same trend as the F10.7 flux and ssn.
      There is even an interesting video of Adap2030 YT channel referring to this “unexpected phenomenon”

      I’m betting it’s the L-P effect starting to manifest, but have no deeper reasons to believe this than the fact that their original work pointed to 2015-16 when the effect would start to manifest.
      I believe low solar radiation is a key component for a larger extent of Arctic ice in mid September.
      September 2013, was the month of *lowest solar activity since early 2011* (the lowest month of the entire maximum of the present cycle), and only now, in 2015, we’re having levels that are even lower.
      I hope some non usual recovery happen in the next two months that could bring the ice extent back to 2013 levels.
      If we consider only solar radiations it could certainly happen, but we must always keep an eye on the NP local weather and the possibility of storms, like in 2012.

      I don’t think anything even close to 2012 will happen, but local weather is usually very unpredictable and the ice extent is still a bit low / vulnerable.
      I was reading some blogs of people who are following the Arctic ice yesterday, and even those who are wishing for low ice extents in September don’t think that anything near 2012 will happen.
      They think 2016 will not make the “top 3 list” (now having 2011, 2007 and 2012, as the lowest).
      As usual, no words there about the Sun.

    1. The AMO is a main driver of Arctic sea ice levels. The top of the AMO is reasonably flat for several years, then starts to curve down

      Other things affect the arctic sea ice, like El Ninos, storms etc etc, but the general trend from now should, unfortunately for the people living up there, be a steady INCREASE in sea ice area.

      This will of course drive the alarmist into a frenzy ! 🙂

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