Tag: Arctic Sea Ice

A late surge in Antarctica means 2017 won’t be the lowest maximum. That honor stays with 1986.

These are the Antarctica records for max and min sorted by max descending.

(Preliminary for 2017 because it may climb some more)

Year	Min	Max	day Max	day Min	Avg Anomaly
2014	3.548	20.201	263	52	1.146198915341
2013	3.679	19.608	274	50	0.893678367396
2012	3.111	19.478	266	54	0.387147239929
2006	2.487	19.36	264	51	-0.169014783289
2009	2.671	19.299	267	53	0.418664668766
2005	2.804	19.295	272	49	0.064952339999
1998	2.772	19.244	258	56	0.108445490684
2000	2.582	19.159	272	49	0.129936857415
2004	3.259	19.124	252	51	0.344207349218
1980	2.521	19.092	267	57	-0.380114783289
2007	2.723	19.086	272	50	0.057179737259
2010	2.842	18.998	249	47	0.476864668766
1999	2.707	18.981	273	51	0.130755079725
2011	2.319	18.954	266	53	-0.129354509316
1985	2.602	18.931	254	50	-0.009151681391
2015	3.544	18.912	275	49	0.784128253241
1981	2.694	18.856	261	51	-0.200536701097
1996	2.597	18.831	267	56	0.151838496759
1994	3.083	18.827	243	43	0.144042750958
1983	2.843	18.811	263	55	-0.247642180549
1997	2.264	18.792	265	58	-0.239875057261
1988	2.639	18.785	277	55	-0.119385162225
1995	3.33	18.762	269	55	0.164829052328
1993	2.281	18.71	263	50	-0.209987386028
2003	3.626	18.68	268	48	0.339360559177
1991	2.554	18.671	273	58	-0.085053139453
1982	2.89	18.55	246	54	0.016407547259
1987	3.01	18.524	258	52	-0.184921590324
2016	2.578	18.518	241	48	-0.46177898958
2001	3.441	18.494	271	50	0.042697545478
1992	2.492	18.467	255	54	-0.218672432202
1990	2.784	18.379	273	53	-0.220332591508
1984	2.382	18.37	266	58	-0.168233781332
1979	2.911	18.361	256	48	0.078581100978
2008	3.692	18.298	247	51	0.622117185284
1989	2.723	18.274	266	51	-0.204247660001
2002	2.697	18.116	252	51	-0.408318892878
2017	2.075	18.06	281	60
1986	2.953	18.027	261	65	-0.548503824385

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Antarctica is still climbing (a little). 19,000 sq km more and it won’t set a record for lowest maximum.

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I’ve had a request for global sea ice.

 

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2017 is on track for the lowest Antarctic maximum. But there is a bit of a late surge.

It is unlikely that another 79,000 sq km of ice will appear. But you never know.

 

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Cycles.

After 40 years, a large ice-free area appears again in the Southern Ocean in mid-winter

US-American scientists have calculated that the Weddell Polynya would probably not occur again because of climate change.

Higher precipitation levels in the region and melting ice would decouple the surface from the deeper water layers.

However, in several studies applying the “Kiel Climate Model” and other computer models, the research group in Kiel described the polynya as part of long-term natural variability, which would occur again sooner or later. “The fact that now a large, ice-free area can be observed in the Weddell Sea confirms our theory and gives us another data point for further model studies,” says Dr. Martin.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/09/170929093337.htm

 

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I haven’t called the Antarctic maximum yet because it isn’t unusual for the day of max to be later than 271.

Plus there is a bit of a surge going on.

However, if things don’t change it would be the lowest maximum by about 40,000 sq km. (which occurred in 1986).

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If things hold (and 110,000 sq km of ice would have to melt), day 255 (five days ago) will be the day of Arctic minimum for 2017.

That would still be only the 8th lowest.

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If things hold (and they may), day 255 (three days ago) will be the Arctic minimum for 2017.

That would still be only the 8th lowest.

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