What Would 2C of Warming By 2036 Look Like?

Michael Mann: “our planet would cross the dangerous warming threshold of two degrees C in 2036, only 22 years from now. ” (h/t Jeff Id)

Using HADCRUT4 and WoodForTrees I graphed the data from 1850 t0 2014, and then added in 2C of warming by 2036.

What a joke.

Update: The biggest rise over 22 years was March 1976 to February 1998 = 1.193C. The 4th biggest was March 1856 to February 1878 = 0.913C.


5 thoughts on “What Would 2C of Warming By 2036 Look Like?

  1. Looking at Michael Mann’s article and in particular the accompanying figure at the beginning of his article, he was clearly referring to 2C above pre-industrial levels not 2C above current levels.

    The current figure is about 0.8C above pre-industrial temperatures (using the average HADCRUT4 values for 1850-1900) so Michael Mann’s point should be plotted at about 1.7 rather than 2.5 on your figure above.

    Interestingly Mann’s increase from current levels is 1.2C over 22 years which is approximately the same figure you quote above for the increase from March 1976 to February 1998.

  2. The dates chosen in the preceding comment were prime examples of the picking of low hanging fruit. Anyone can play the same game. I likewise encourage those whose memories are not sufficiently long enough to recall that Feb 1875 was 0.93C cooler and Feb 1947 was 0.48C cooler than Feb 2014.

    In particular the measurements prior to 1900 are “noisy” compared to the data after 1900 (see http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1850/derivative ). This is most likely due to the limited number of stations compared to the number used later in the record.
    As a consequence, the period 1850 to 1900 is the peak of the cherry picking season that allows the extraction of any required result by a suitable choice of dates. Other dates outside this period, as evidenced by the use of Feb 1944, can also be used.

    I can only guess as to why this non-sequitur , along with 1945 etc. was introduced into the discussion. Was is simply to divert from the misleading chart at the top of the blog and the corrections needed?

    Is there any other reason?

    1. The peak of a cycle is important. The AMO matches the peak of the warming cycles better than CO2 which has no correlation to the climate cycles.


      Pretending that 1878 and 1944 are just cherry picking is childish, but typical of the AGW Cult. It is no coincidence that 1878 and 1944 are 66 years apart.

      The last cool cycle (1945-1980) was 35 years long. It is very likely that it won’t even have started warming again by 2036.

      If CO2 was the driver it wouldn’t have stopped warming after 1945.

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