BBC: Heatwaves “More Likely” claim is ruined by the data

Paul Homewood discusses BBC claims that Heatwaves are more likely due to climate change. And because 2014 was the “hottest” year.

So I decided to look at the HADCET MAXTEMP data.

Not the average. The maximum.

I then arbitrarily set the heatwave boundary at 25C.

And then calculated the number of days over 25 and the longest stretch (ie Heatwave).

Guess what? 2014 barely ranks. Only 8 days above 25.  1911 had 29! (See large table at bottom for 25C heatwaves)

What if I set the Heatwave definition at 30C? There are only 8 years that have days over 30C.

1976 is the winner. And 1976 was 39 years ago! (Corrected from 30)

The 30C days and temps.

“1976-07-01” “1976-07-02” “1976-07-03” “1976-07-04” “1976-07-05” “1976-07-06” “1976-07-07”
“30.6” “31.8” “33.2” “31.4” “31.4” “31.6” “30.4”

30C Heatwaves

Year Days Longest Heatwave
1976 9 7
1995 5 4
1975 4 2
1906 3 3
1948 3 3
2006 3 2
1923 2 2
1990 2 2

25C Heatwave.

Year Days Longest Heatwave
1976 33 16
1995 33 10
1911 29 4
2006 26 7
1947 25 10
2003 23 10
1949 22 6
1933 21 6
1893 19 6
1921 19 6
1955 19 5
1975 19 8
1983 18 7
1989 18 7
1899 17 4
1887 16 3
1959 16 3
1990 16 4
1997 16 7
2013 16 8
2005 15 5
1884 14 5
1900 14 3
1935 14 4
1999 14 5
2001 13 5
1941 12 3
1878 11 6
1897 11 4
1898 11 5
1934 11 8
1970 11 5
1984 10 5
1901 9 5
1925 9 3
1942 9 4
1982 9 2
1991 9 3
1994 9 3
1996 9 5
2004 9 2
1906 8 5
1929 8 3
1957 8 4
1960 8 3
1969 8 3
1986 8 4
2014 8 5
1896 7 2
1919 7 2
1923 7 3
1944 7 3
1952 7 2
1973 7 4
1886 6 3
1895 6 2
1908 6 3
1914 6 2
1926 6 4
1937 6 2
1940 6 4
1945 6 3
1946 6 5
1961 6 2
2010 6 2
2011 6 3
1881 5 2
1885 5 4
1918 5 3
1930 5 4
1948 5 5
1953 5 2
1977 5 5
1987 5 2
1992 5 2
1998 5 4
2000 5 3
2009 5 4
1891 4 4
1902 4 2
1904 4 2
1912 4 3
1922 4 2
1928 4 2
1932 4 2
1936 4 3
1939 4 4
1943 4 2
1950 4 4
1963 4 2
1968 4 2
2008 4 2
1894 3 2
1905 3 2
1917 3 2
1978 3 2
1980 3 2
1988 3 2
2002 3 2
1880 2 2
1924 2 2
1972 2 2
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2 Comments

  1. There you go destroying another good BBC scare story with FACTS, that just won’t do you know. Everyone knows the BBC, Guardian and even the Met Office are not in the slightest interested in facts.

    Reply

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