sunshine hours

January 6, 2016

Sea Ice Extent (Global Antarctic and Arctic) – Day 5

Global_Sea_Ice_Extent_2016_Day_5_1981-2010 Antarctic_Sea_Ice_Extent_2016_Day_5_1981-2010 Arctic_Sea_Ice_Extent_2016_Day_5_1981-2010

South / North

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1 Comment »

  1. 2003 seems to be the last full year running near or at the long-term 1981-2010 extent average (as tracked on NSIDC’s Charctic interactive website) so it seems that in the limited data set of satellite records, the peaks have been running flatter, later, and the summer melt season more dramatic. But the ice-up also seems to be just as dramatic, so extent isn’t proving much other than the summer melt has a much wider variability (>3M km-2 for a 2SD range). As I see it, it’s only been in the last decade that extent has fallen dramatically and most notably during the summer melt season. We also can see from PIOMAS’s monthly record that since 2010, overall Arctic volume has been on a general upwards trend. All very interesting, but could it be the result of solar cycle degradation and not CO2-induced climate change?

    Consider this graph prediction for SC24 made back in 2007:

    … and now the current ICES graph for SC24 through Dec 2015:

    If one looks at the overall graph of solar cycles dating back to 1750:

    … and solar irradiance since 1610:

    … a person could make the argument that the cold period of the late 1960’s to ~1980 had more to do with a [relatively] weaker sunspot count and nominally weaker solar TOA irradiance. We already see that SC24 is as weak if not weaker than predicted on the lower threshold for the solar cycle’s intensity. And a 1.5W/m2 reduction in solar irradiance adds up to a whole heap of less incoming IR radiation. Perhaps because of the lower solar cycle intensity beginning in 2010 that has translated into thicker Arctic sea ice and if SC25 is additionally as weak as predicted, a return to historical norms in both extent and volume will ensue. Isn’t it reasonable to postulate that extent is more or less directly related to the intensity of the TOA irradiance? I sure think so.

    Comment by AZ1971 — January 6, 2016 @ 1:26 PM | Reply


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