USHCN – Page 2 – sunshine hours

USHCN 2.5 – OMG … The Old Data Changes Every Day

Published on June 22, 2014June 22, 2014 by sunshinehours13 Comments

Yesterday I did a post about old USHCN changing from month to month.

So I thought why compare data sets from one day to the next. Certainly they can’t be changing old data every day … could they?

So I compared the June 21 2014 TAvg Final dataset (ushcn.tavg.latest.FLs.52i.tar.gz) from here to the same file from June 22 2014

And just to keep it manageable. I compared only the data from Jan 1998.

And here we are … the data even for 1998 changes from day to day.

Consider the “SANDPOINT EXP STN” station. On June 21 the monthly average temperature for Jan 1998 was -1.33C. On June 22 2014 it was -0.89C for an increase in temperature of .44C.

These are all the records where the temperature changed or the Error Flag changed.

11 got warmer. 4 got colder. And even the non-Estimated data changes. OMG. How can you actually analyze the data if the past temperature changes every day.

Year	STATE	NAME	Station	LATITUDE	LONGITUDE	ELEVATION	Month	DATA1	E1	Version1	DATA2	E2	Version2	dif
1998	FL	ARCADIA	USH00080228	27.2181	-81.8739	9.1	1	17.61	E	v2.5.0.20140621	17.63	E	v2.5.0.20140622	0.02
1998	ID	PRIEST RIVER EXP STN	USH00107386	48.3514	-116.8358	725.4	1	-2.77		v2.5.0.20140621	-2.78		v2.5.0.20140622	-0.01
1998	ID	SANDPOINT EXP STN	USH00108137	48.2928	-116.5578	640.1	1	-1.33	a	v2.5.0.20140621	-0.89	a	v2.5.0.20140622	0.44
1998	MI	NEWBERRY 3S	USH00205816	46.3133	-85.5106	259.1	1	-9		v2.5.0.20140621	-8.86		v2.5.0.20140622	0.14
1998	NC	ELIZABETH CITY	USH00312719	36.3097	-76.205	2.4	1	7.93	a	v2.5.0.20140621	7.94	a	v2.5.0.20140622	0.01
1998	NY	SARATOGA SPRINGS 4 SW	USH00307484	43.0331	-73.8167	94.5	1	-3.19		v2.5.0.20140621	-3.17		v2.5.0.20140622	0.02
1998	TN	CROSSVILLE ED & RESEARCH	USH00402202	36.0147	-85.1311	551.7	1	5.14	a	v2.5.0.20140621	5.17	a	v2.5.0.20140622	0.03
1998	VA	BREMO BLUFF	USH00440993	37.7092	-78.2886	68.6	1	6.25	d	v2.5.0.20140621	6.24	d	v2.5.0.20140622	-0.01
1998	VA	FARMVILLE 2 N	USH00442941	37.3264	-78.3864	137.2	1	4.94	a	v2.5.0.20140621	4.93	a	v2.5.0.20140622	-0.01
1998	VA	HOPEWELL	USH00444101	37.2992	-77.2772	12.2	1	7.27	b	v2.5.0.20140621	7.29	b	v2.5.0.20140622	0.02
1998	VA	NORFOLK INTL AP	USH00446139	36.9033	-76.1922	9.1	1	8.18		v2.5.0.20140621	8.33		v2.5.0.20140622	0.15
1998	VA	WILLIAMSBURG 2 N	USH00449151	37.3017	-76.7039	21.3	1	6.96	a	v2.5.0.20140621	6.98	a	v2.5.0.20140622	0.02
1998	WA	NORTHPORT	USH00455946	48.9114	-117.8069	423.7	1	-2.13		v2.5.0.20140621	-2.14		v2.5.0.20140622	-0.01
1998	WI	MANITOWOC	USH00475017	44.0869	-87.6522	178	1	-4.12	E	v2.5.0.20140621	-4.11	E	v2.5.0.20140622	0.01
1998	WI	WATERTOWN	USH00478919	43.1742	-88.7364	251.5	1	-3.94		v2.5.0.20140621	-3.93		v2.5.0.20140622	0.01

USHCN 2.5 – 1998 Keeps Getting Warmer

Published on June 21, 2014June 21, 2014 by sunshinehours11 Comment

This is another post on USHCN warming. You can read more here.

USHCN puts out a monthly dataset every day. For the last month or so I was using the data I downloaded on on 20140509. I have been using the Final tavg data.

Today I downloaded the 20140621 version from here: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/v2.5

I thought … why not map both sets and compare the average temperature for the USA in Jan 1998 between the two sets of data.

In the legend I placed the count of Real versus Estimated and the average.

I was shocked. They are still warming 1998!

On May 9 the mean of the Estimated data was 2.5C and the mean of the Real Data was 1.74 … which is a .76C spread.

On June 21 the mean of the Estimated data was 2.72C and the mean of the Real Data was 1.7 … which is a 1.02C spread.

OMG. They keep changing the data. And they are still warming 1998!!!

USHCN 2.5 – Estimated Warming By Year and Month

Published on June 11, 2014June 11, 2014 by sunshinehours11 Comment

This is the 3rd or 4th post on USHCN warming. You can read more here.

Today I have taken the Final data from 1895 to 2013 and am comparing the average for each month Estimated to Real in Celsius.

As you can see, in all cases the Estimated data is warmer. What a shock! (Not really).

Month	Estimated	Real	Estimated minus Real
Jan	0.17	-1.02	1.19
Feb	1.95	0.8	1.15
Mar	6.39	5.42	0.97
Apr	11.53	10.85	0.68
May	16.45	15.96	0.49
Jun	21.05	20.54	0.51
Jul	23.61	23.21	0.4
Aug	22.86	22.37	0.49
Sep	18.94	18.42	0.52
Oct	12.97	12.45	0.52
Nov	6.5	5.82	0.68
Dec	1.5	0.54	0.96

The next table is just the difference for each year and month. If Estimated is larger than Real, then the color will be red, otherwise blue. If the difference is more than 1 or -1, then bold will emphasize.

Red means the Estimated data is hotter than the non-estimated for that year and month.

Blue is much rarer than red. And bold blue is very rare indeed.

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
1895	0.12	-0.29	0.04	0.06	-0.38	0.22	-0.2	-0.21	-0.31	0.09	0.26	0.67
1896	0.78	0.9	1.08	1.21	0.84	0.54	0.15	0.29	0.39	0.43	0.4	0.1
1897	-0.24	0.48	0.66	0.23	-0.14	-0.07	0.03	-0.11	0.44	-0.11	-0.19	0.9
1898	-0.27	0.16	-0.24	0.16	-0.41	-0.05	0	0.23	0.03	-0.82	-0.93	-0.35
1899	0.17	-0.03	0.39	-0.37	-0.33	-0.54	-0.28	-0.23	0.14	-0.47	0.18	0.26
1900	0.89	0.97	1.35	0.56	-0.35	-0.05	-0.11	-0.22	-0.34	-0.74	-0.23	0.48
1901	1.57	1.74	1.16	0.43	0.24	-0.07	0.16	0.26	-0.22	-0.05	0.17	0.42
1902	1.25	0.74	-0.3	0.37	0.25	-0.1	0.09	0.18	0.01	-0.25	-0.6	0.87
1903	0.26	0.58	0.17	0.68	-0.27	0.45	0.44	0.69	0.38	0.6	0.53	1.15
1904	1.16	2.62	2.11	1.34	0.67	0.92	0.39	0.92	0.34	0.29	0.7	0.72
1905	0.84	1.04	0.67	-0.12	-0.07	-0.3	0.04	0.21	0.02	-0.99	-0.05	-0.09
1906	-0.59	0.19	-0.05	0.05	-0.43	0.06	0.39	0.45	0.22	0.03	-0.27	0.69
1907	-0.59	0.76	-0.06	0.16	-0.05	-0.34	-0.56	-0.55	-0.55	0.05	-0.19	-0.5
1908	0.6	1.07	1.28	0.34	-0.38	-0.63	-0.21	-0.25	-0.4	-0.58	-0.04	-0.34
1909	-0.14	-0.15	0.05	-0.62	-1.05	-0.93	-0.42	-0.63	-0.62	-0.2	-0.81	-0.28
1910	0.45	0.01	-0.19	-0.14	0.18	0.26	0.16	0.04	0.41	-0.71	-0.45	0.86
1911	-0.29	-0.92	0.64	0.23	-0.73	-0.1	-0.48	-0.48	-0.59	-1.21	-0.93	-1.71
1912	0.52	0.77	-0.39	-1.29	-0.63	-0.29	-0.21	0.11	-0.8	-1.14	-0.63	-1.13
1913	-0.49	0.49	0.01	-0.33	0.13	0.1	0.35	0.11	0.11	0.05	-0.23	-0.81
1914	0.3	-0.11	0.46	-0.09	-0.24	0.02	0.35	0.51	0.03	-0.25	0.53	0.33
1915	0.32	0.27	0.92	-0.3	-0.32	-0.81	-0.32	0.4	-0.19	-0.2	0.21	0.87
1916	-0.95	1.24	1.12	0.31	-0.29	0.34	-0.04	0.15	0.11	-0.18	-0.07	-0.13
1917	-0.26	1.36	0.54	0.37	0.52	0.84	0.39	0.42	0.96	1.34	0.75	2.01
1918	1.65	1.44	0.36	0.67	-0.23	0.64	0.4	0.48	0.65	0.89	0.26	0.45
1919	0.38	0.68	0.44	0.33	0.26	0.25	0.06	0.27	0.32	0.06	-0.15	0.11
1920	-0.23	0	0.04	-0.12	0.35	0.35	0.36	-0.03	-0.31	-0.24	-1.1	-1.55
1921	-0.48	0.04	-0.06	-0.22	0.16	0.07	0.24	0.49	1.12	0.9	1.9	1.18
1922	0.74	1.04	0.84	0.06	0.24	0.96	1	0.29	-0.28	-0.31	-0.52	0.79
1923	1.07	0.4	0.58	0.63	0.44	0.57	0.64	0.43	0.57	-0.28	0.35	0.61
1924	1.11	0.85	0.35	0.55	0.4	0.72	-0.13	0.17	0.21	0.08	0.78	1.65
1925	1.15	1.3	0.76	0.57	0.84	0.72	0.54	-0.03	0.1	1.05	0.39	0.56
1926	0.62	0.8	0.26	0.37	0.12	0.05	-0.19	0.18	0.13	0.11	0.68	0.87
1927	0.66	1.66	1.22	1.51	1.05	0.39	0.3	0.39	0.75	0.72	0.56	1.4
1928	1.72	1.14	0.81	0.82	0.23	0.48	-0.13	0.52	0.33	0.75	0.16	0.79
1929	1.2	1.5	1.22	0.28	0.4	0.32	0.56	0.33	1.16	0.81	0.71	0.9
1930	1.6	1.2	1.13	1.28	0.41	0.44	0.42	0.18	0.71	0.38	0.9	1.29
1931	0.72	1.08	0.95	1	1	1.09	1.11	1.02	0.71	0.89	1.55	2.38
1932	2.79	3.21	2.77	0.53	0.34	0.07	0.08	-0.3	0.02	0.64	1.28	1.63
1933	0.5	1.75	0.86	0.16	0.35	0.15	0.17	-0.39	0.27	0.81	0.81	1.63
1934	0.72	0.89	0.46	0.32	0.33	0.65	0.26	0.35	0.35	0.27	-0.09	0.07
1935	1.64	1.13	1.69	0.54	0.41	0.23	0.19	0.38	0.29	0.4	-0.41	0.98
1936	1.35	0.82	0.89	0.12	-0.08	0.03	-0.12	0.82	0.31	0.39	-0.11	0.94
1937	-1.3	0.45	1.19	0.47	0.35	0.17	0.21	0.71	1	1.11	0.74	1.24
1938	1.14	0.36	-0.11	0.11	0.35	0.45	0.52	0.63	0.61	0.71	2.21	1.6
1939	2.08	2.43	1.33	1.17	0.59	0.91	0.39	0.04	1.17	0.95	1	1.01
1940	2.19	1.81	2.04	1.62	1.01	0.94	0.65	0.96	0.9	0.83	1.36	1
1941	1.98	1.7	1.58	0.55	0.33	0.68	0.31	0.76	0.63	0.8	0.75	0.99
1942	1.53	1.4	1.28	0.6	1.13	1.01	0.65	0.73	0.52	0.81	1.12	1.96
1943	2.79	2.13	2.21	1.56	1.28	0.86	0.74	1.49	1.44	1.31	1.83	2.08
1944	1.86	3.17	2.79	2.1	1.24	1.75	1.66	1.47	1.37	0.97	0.62	1.64
1945	2.6	1.55	0.5	1.36	1.42	1.22	1.12	0.81	1.41	1.34	1.29	1.8
1946	1.31	1.42	0.78	0.69	0.85	0.64	0.35	0.53	0.46	1.09	1.63	1.11
1947	1.74	1.8	1.67	1.74	1.46	1.74	0.69	0.94	1.15	0.95	1.7	1.24
1948	1.74	1.75	2.07	1.99	1.39	1.58	1.42	1.2	1.15	1.41	1.58	2.71
1949	3.09	2.72	2.35	1.18	1.07	1.23	1.26	1.09	0.95	1.21	1.12	1.58
1950	2.17	1.89	1.21	1.02	0.96	0.61	0.48	0.18	0.42	0.39	0.19	-0.22
1951	0.1	0.24	-0.1	0.11	0.53	0.86	0.83	0.98	1.05	0.39	0.94	1.45
1952	1.74	1.23	1.03	0.49	0.87	1.05	0.57	0.88	1.18	1.36	1.27	1.84
1953	2.57	2.28	1.89	1.42	1.54	1.23	1.07	1.05	1.05	1.23	1.3	2.37
1954	3.03	1.96	1.8	1.71	1.14	1	0.98	1.3	1.56	1.55	1.07	1.56
1955	2.4	2.56	2.84	1.47	1.44	0.89	0.53	0.56	0.73	1.07	2.66	2.38
1956	2.34	2.75	2.63	2.04	1.64	0.94	0.8	0.99	1.35	0.9	0.89	1.51
1957	2.08	1.76	0.49	0.71	0.67	0.82	0.23	0.81	1.06	0.76	0.64	0.99
1958	1.26	1.86	0.85	0.66	0.8	0.91	0.49	0.23	0.34	0.51	1.05	1.97
1959	1.71	1.83	1.35	1.03	0.5	0.41	0.48	0.23	0.93	1.37	1.87	1.03
1960	1.63	1.78	1.47	1.58	1.6	1.22	0.62	1.09	1.09	1.07	1.2	0.73
1961	0.49	1.19	1.12	1.15	0.97	0.6	0.76	0.49	0.44	0.66	1.3	1.82
1962	2.18	2.52	1.54	1.73	2.17	1.69	1.39	1.52	1.58	1.67	1.54	1.83
1963	2.97	2.51	1.71	1.53	1.51	0.88	0.69	0.99	1.1	0.9	1.32	2.04
1964	1.83	1.6	2	1.69	1.12	1.32	0.59	0.73	1.34	0.82	1.69	2.19
1965	2.19	2.71	2.31	2.27	1.35	1.15	0.95	1.06	1.98	1.16	1.98	1.28
1966	1.9	1.88	1.31	1.23	0.77	0.31	0.4	0.6	0.48	0.55	1.27	1.16
1967	1.9	2.34	2.17	1.23	0.92	0.35	0.62	0.92	0.69	0.7	0.78	0.62
1968	2.15	2.09	1.05	0.98	0.35	0.16	0.44	0.32	0.07	0.59	0.06	0.38
1969	1.2	0.12	0.42	0.02	0.14	0.44	-0.02	0.43	0.16	-0.12	0.04	-0.31
1970	0.61	0.1	0.39	0.06	-0.03	-0.4	-0.28	-0.37	-0.24	-0.07	0.57	0.81
1971	0.61	-0.16	0.34	-0.45	-0.37	-0.25	-0.54	-0.32	-0.37	-1.2	-0.15	-0.25
1972	0.54	0.3	0.29	-0.46	-0.11	0.12	0.66	0.05	0.6	0.97	0.67	1.59
1973	0.97	1.11	0.38	0.35	0.47	-0.01	-0.28	0.31	-0.33	-0.02	0.53	0.92
1974	1.64	0.14	1.1	1.02	1.64	0.84	0.26	1	1.16	0.67	0.15	0.7
1975	2.37	1.31	0.6	0.76	0.69	0.95	0.51	0.8	1.21	0.78	0.9	1.61
1976	2.12	1.92	1.16	1.12	0.65	0.57	0.81	0.71	0.79	0.43	1.05	1
1977	2.2	1.74	0.42	0.29	-0.14	0.6	0.18	0.55	0.32	0.39	0.14	1.96
1978	2.17	2.74	1.95	0.79	0.33	0.32	0.58	0.6	1.02	1.25	1.09	1.57
1979	2.13	2.65	1.21	1.24	0.65	0.53	0.57	0.73	0.79	0.68	0.28	0.05
1980	-0.13	0.89	0.32	0.28	0.41	1.01	1.3	0.62	0.44	0.59	0.33	0.88
1981	0.91	0.81	0.4	0.72	0.05	0.43	0.51	0.57	0.67	0.8	1.03	1.76
1982	3.21	2.28	1.64	1.23	0.59	0.57	0.39	1.14	1.49	1.42	2.14	2.52
1983	1.18	1.55	1.46	1.44	1.45	1.44	1.46	0.99	1.3	1.18	1.04	1.53
1984	1.56	1.75	1.82	1.23	1.24	1.03	0.73	0.6	1.22	1.37	0.91	1.72
1985	2.37	1.79	1.2	0.64	0.51	0.5	0.14	0.11	0.13	0.37	-0.62	-0.18
1986	0.22	0.82	0.45	0.1	-0.06	0.22	0.38	0.07	0.19	-0.23	0.19	0.12
1987	-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.21	-0.38	0.02	0.33	0.21	0.24	0.8	0.19	0.5
1988	0.16	0.84	0.53	0.42	-0.14	0.48	0.27	0.21	0.53	1.23	0.87	1.19
1989	1.3	1.43	1.7	1.43	0.76	0.45	0.61	0.46	0.96	0.33	0.65	0.85
1990	0.6	1.47	1.06	0.71	0.89	0.23	0.31	0.29	0.13	0.52	0.54	0.53
1991	0.2	0.43	-0.87	-0.35	-0.11	-0.55	-0.22	-0.15	0.66	-0.31	0.72	-0.14
1992	-0.31	-0.15	-0.29	0.34	0.13	0	0.24	0.3	0.02	-0.07	-0.69	-0.15
1993	-0.78	0.22	0.13	-0.41	-0.05	-0.46	0.05	-0.06	0.04	0.34	0.6	0.75
1994	1.62	1.72	1.15	0.88	0.45	0.34	0.48	0.31	0.37	0.74	1.25	0.81
1995	1.36	0.96	0.67	0.06	-0.14	0.36	-0.05	-0.33	0.09	-0.08	0.94	1.04
1996	1.23	1.51	0.81	0.66	-0.12	-0.02	0.44	0.14	-0.01	-0.28	0.68	0.19
1997	0.43	0.7	0.1	0.42	0.73	-0.22	0.16	0.47	0.04	0.61	0.84	0.44
1998	0.76	-0.3	0.62	0.23	-0.39	-0.34	-0.13	-0.17	-0.43	0.31	1.3	0.54
1999	0.65	1.02	0.27	0.69	0.46	0.48	0.2	0.77	0.6	0.44	0.49	0.43
2000	1.46	1.21	0.3	0.8	0.16	0.42	0.39	0.84	0.51	0.89	1.11	1.13
2001	1.69	1.95	1.58	1.16	0.53	1.21	1.28	0.81	1.21	1.1	1.56	1.36
2002	1	1.19	1.1	1.45	1.06	1.28	1.28	1.33	0.82	2.34	1.58	1.46
2003	2.79	2.3	1.38	1.1	1.24	1.19	1.57	1.19	0.86	1.23	0.87	1.95
2004	2.17	1.21	2	1.3	0.97	1.6	1.12	1.4	0.83	1.03	0.71	1.55
2005	2.55	1.57	2.26	0.74	1.36	0.32	0.74	1.3	0.52	0.95	0.61	1.22
2006	-0.1	1.36	1.29	0.17	0.5	0.26	-0.05	0.21	0.52	0.54	0.54	0.35
2007	0.37	1.33	0.96	0.86	0.58	0.45	0.05	0.29	0.03	0.14	1.04	1.63
2008	1.17	1.8	1.6	-0.1	-0.18	0.48	0.19	0.28	0.22	0.37	0.6	1.99
2009	2.74	1.54	1.3	0.67	0.26	0.84	0.93	0.7	0.86	0.6	1.15	1.07
2010	2.51	1.8	1.06	0.51	0.51	0.99	0.36	0.87	0.28	0.62	0.47	1.59
2011	2.17	1.84	1.87	0.96	-0.12	0.82	0.79	1.02	1.27	1.38	1.19	1.29
2012	2.1	2.83	0.95	1.39	0.96	1.33	0.63	1.2	1.13	1.63	1.56	1.56
2013	1.64	1.56	2.02	1.36	0.69	0.97	0.7	0.85	1.04	1.04	2.05	2.56

USHCN 2.5 – How Much Of The Data is Estimated?

Published on June 7, 2014 by sunshinehours13 Comments

I’ve been dabbling in the USHCN data to see how much is Estimated and how much is Real. You can read more here.

This is California (Nevada is there because of the shape of California) for the 12 months of 2013. The red stations (with name and elevation) are Estimated. The blue stations (no name to save space) are “real“.

For just California December 2013, 18 out of 43 are Estimated. The Estimated stations average 8.12C and the “Real” stations average 7.02. Click image for full size.

USHCN 2.5 – Estimated Data Is Warming Data – Arizona

Published on June 5, 2014 by sunshinehours12 Comments

An addendum to yesterdays post about “Estimated” data.

These are the 9 months in Arizona with the biggest change due to Estimated data. I’ll focus on December (the top graph). Remember, this is the Final data after all the other adjustments.

About 15% of the data is Estimated from neighboring stations.

The trend of REAL data is negative -.04C/decade.

Then they add in about 15% Estimated data with a trend of +0.43C/decade.

The net result is a new trend of +0.02C/decade.

Presto. Magic. A downward trend is now an upward trend. (Click on graph for larger)

USHCN 2.5 – Estimated Data Is Warming Data

Published on June 4, 2014June 4, 2014 by sunshinehours16 Comments

Over at Steven Goddard’s blog he is trying to point out how much USHCN data is “Estimated”.

From the readme.txt file: " 'E' indicates the data value is an estimate from surrounding values; no original value is available;"

So I had a copy of the data from last month because of a previous post.

So I thought … take the Final data and graph each month comparing data with an E flag to all the data without an E flag.

Surprise. Estimated data is Warming Data. And that is ignoring all the manipulation in going from Raw to Final data.

USHCN 2.5 Adjustments (Final – Raw)

Published on May 10, 2014 by sunshinehours12 Comments

Over at Nick Stokes blog they are trying to tear down a graph used by WUWT and Steven Goddard. They have made a valid point that the last few skyrocketing points may be because of late data.

But I thought I would take a look at monthly adjustments to tavg, tmin and tmax. Each of these 3 graph sets show the Final Temperature minus the Raw Temperature.

1) As you can see the USHN adjustments cool the past (especially the warm 20s/30s/40s).

2) I don’t know why they adjust tmax so much.

3) I really, really want to know why Dec/Jan/Feb (and to a lesser degree Nov and Mar) are so heavily manipulated. The adjustments can change by .5C from year to year. Bizarre.

Click for bigger.