USHCN 2.5 – Estimated Data Is Warming Data – USA 1945 to 1980

I’ve been posting on USHCN and the effect of “estimating” or “Infilling” on  the Final data.

Earlier today I showed that Estimating/Infilling made the 1980-2014 trend steeper upwards.

Now I will show the opposite: When the trend is down, infilling makes the trend steeper downwards.

I repeat … this is the Final data after all the other adjustments. About 15% of the data is Estimated from neighboring stations.

I will post all the monthly graphs … but just discuss the first – January.

The data is 1945 to 1980. So it covers a period of cooling.

The trend of REAL data is –0.58C/decade. That’s the 39,766 values referenced in the legend.

Then they add in about 15% Estimated data with a trend of  -0.79C/decade. That’s the 3987 values.

The net result is a new trend of -0.61C/decade.

Presto. Magic. A -0.58C trend is now a -0.61C trend.

Not a big change. But it is always there.  But the red line is almost always well above the others. Sometimes by 2C.

(Click on graphs for larger).

USA USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1945-1980) Jan

USA USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1945-1980) Feb

USA USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1945-1980) Mar

USA USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1945-1980) Apr

USA USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1945-1980) May

USA USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1945-1980) Jun

USA USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1945-1980) Jul

USA USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1945-1980) Aug

USA USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1945-1980) Sep

USA USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1945-1980) Oct

USA USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1945-1980) Nov

USA USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1945-1980) Dec

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