Category: NOAA

June 2012 – Not that hot

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According to the NOAA, the warmest June in USA history was 1933.

Followed by 1918, 1994, 1988, 2002, 2006, 1952, 2010, 1931, 1934, 1911, 1936 and then in 14th place: 2012.

Even with the NOAA cooling the past, the 1930s were hot.

 

 

 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/na.html

 

Outgoing Longwave Radiation – 5 year averages

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An addition to this post on 5 year averages. But today I am using Outgoing Longwave Radiation from the NOAA. I had to first calculate the 1971-2000 anomalies. I started using that baseline because Canadian data that I downloaded already had the 1971-2000 normals calculated.

Why OLR? Read this post by the Inconvenient Skeptic. “The warmer the Earth is, the faster it loses energy to space.”

I am using Northern Hemisphere Data because so far, my “5 year averages” posts have been in the USA, Canada and the UK.

 

 

 

 

USA/NOAA 5 year averages plotted using all monthly anomalies

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Update: I posted the follow up using data from BC here.

I took the NOAA state data and calculated the 1971-2000 average for each month and then calculated the anomalies. I then graphed every monthly anomaly and calculated the 5 year average backwards using the most recent anomaly as the start point.

Washington State is not uncommon.  The last 5 years were -.3F colder than the 1971-2000 average. Which puts the last 5 years colder than ~1898-1908, and colder than ~1940.

It is also 1.1F colder than the previous 5 years.

The thing that struck me about this graph is that previous 5 years were not hotter than many, many other periods. By not hotter I mean the positive anomalies were not larger. What made the previous 5 years “warmer” was the absence of really large negative anomalies. The recent 5 year period saw the first -5F anomaly since 1995.

NOAA Warmest Months For Each State

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Warmest Months (first one – ties ignored)

Yellow Ones not from this century

State Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Alabama 1950 1927 1907 1967 1933 1914 1930 2007 1925 1919 1985 1933
Arizona 2003 1995 2004 1989 2000 1896 2003 2011 1899 2003 1995 1896
Arkansas 1907 1976 2012 1896 1962 1953 1954 1954 1925 1963 1909 1984
California 1986 1963 1934 1926 2001 1896 1899 1967 2009 2003 1995 1950
Colorado 2003 1954 2004 1946 1934 2002 2003 2011 1998 1963 1949 1980
Connecticut 1932 1998 2012 1921 1991 1925 1913 1913 1961 1913 2006 2001
Delaware 1950 1976 1921 2011 2004 2010 2011 1900 1930 2007 1985 1984
Florida 1937 1932 1907 1908 1905 1998 1998 2010 1925 1919 1986 1931
Georgia 1950 1927 2012 2002 1896 1952 1986 2007 1925 1919 1985 1931
Idaho 1953 1934 1934 1934 1897 1918 2007 2003 1990 1988 1999 1917
Illinois 2006 1998 2012 2010 1962 1934 1936 1947 1925 1963 1931 1923
Indiana 2006 1954 2012 1896 1896 1934 1936 1947 1925 1947 1931 1923
Iowa 2006 1954 2012 1915 1934 1933 1936 1947 1931 1963 2001 1931
Kansas 2006 1930 2012 1981 1962 1952 1934 1936 1931 1963 1999 1957
Kentucky 1950 1932 2012 1896 1896 1952 1901 2007 1925 1919 1931 1923
Louisiana 1950 1932 1907 1967 1933 2011 1998 2011 1911 1919 1927 1933
Maine 1913 1981 1946 2010 1911 1930 1952 1937 1961 1913 1931 1900
Maryland 1950 1976 1921 1994 2004 1943 1955 1900 1930 2007 1985 1984
Massachusetts 1913 1998 1946 1945 1944 1930 1955 1937 1961 1947 1926 2006
Michigan 2006 1998 2012 1915 1896 1919 1921 1947 1908 1900 2001 1923
Minnesota 2006 1998 2012 1915 1977 1933 1936 1900 1897 1963 2001 1939
Mississippi 1950 1932 1907 1896 1896 1914 1930 1924 1925 1919 1927 1933
Missouri 2006 1930 2012 1981 1962 1952 1934 1936 1931 1963 1909 1931
Montana 2006 1991 1986 1987 1934 1988 1936 1971 1998 1963 1949 1896
Nebraska 2006 1954 2012 1981 1934 1933 1936 1937 1897 1963 1999 1908
Nevada 2003 1995 1934 1934 2001 1918 1931 1934 2009 1988 1949 1917
New Hampshire 1932 1981 1946 1941 1911 1976 1955 1937 1961 1947 2006 2006
New Jersey 1932 1998 2012 2010 1991 2010 1955 2005 1961 2007 2006 2006
New Mexico 1909 1957 1910 2002 1996 1990 2003 2011 2010 1950 1927 1980
New York 1932 1984 2012 1921 1911 1949 1921 1955 1961 1947 1931 2006
North Carolina 1950 1927 1945 2002 1896 1952 1993 1900 1921 1919 1985 1956
North Dakota 2006 1954 1910 1987 1977 1988 1936 1983 1897 1963 2001 1939
Ohio 1932 1998 2012 1896 1991 1934 1934 1947 1931 1947 1931 1923
Oklahoma 2006 1954 2012 2006 1896 1953 2011 2011 1931 1963 1999 1965
Oregon 1953 1963 1934 1934 1992 1918 1906 1967 2011 1988 1999 1933
Pennsylvania 1932 1998 2012 1921 1944 1943 1955 1900 1931 1947 1931 1923
Rhode Island 1932 1984 2012 2010 2010 2010 2010 2005 1961 1947 1975 1928
South Carolina 1974 1927 1945 2002 1896 1952 1993 2007 1925 1919 1985 1956
South Dakota 2006 1954 2012 1895 1934 1933 1936 1937 1897 1963 1999 1939
Tennessee 1950 1927 2012 1896 1962 1952 1930 2007 1925 1919 1985 1931
Texas 1923 2000 1907 1967 1996 2011 2011 2011 1911 1947 1927 1933
Utah 2003 1907 2004 1992 1934 2007 2003 2007 1990 1988 1949 1917
Vermont 1932 1981 2012 1945 1975 1949 1921 1937 1961 1947 1909 2006
Virginia 1950 1976 1945 1954 1953 2010 1934 1900 1930 1919 1985 1956
Washington 1953 1991 1992 1934 1958 1992 1906 1967 1967 1901 1899 1900
West Virginia 1950 1932 2012 1954 1896 1943 1901 1900 1900 1919 1985 1956
Wisconsin 2006 1998 2012 1915 1977 1933 1921 1947 1931 1963 2001 1923
Wyoming 1953 1954 1986 1943 1934 1988 2007 2003 1998 1963 1949 1896
Northeast Region 1932 1998 2012 1921 1911 1943 1955 1937 1961 1947 1931 2006
East North Central Region 2006 1998 2012 1915 1977 1933 1936 1947 1931 1963 2001 1923
Central Region 2006 1930 2012 1896 1962 1952 1934 1936 1925 1947 1931 1923
Southeast Region 1950 1927 1945 1954 1896 1952 1993 2007 1925 1919 1985 1931
West North Central Region 2006 1954 1910 1987 1934 1988 1936 1983 1998 1963 1999 1939
South Region 1923 1930 1907 2006 1896 1953 2011 2011 1911 1947 1909 1933
Southwest Region 2003 1995 2004 1989 1934 1896 2003 2011 2010 1950 1949 1980
Northwest Region 1953 1963 1934 1934 1958 1918 2007 1967 1990 1988 1899 1917
West Region 2003 1963 1934 1934 2001 1896 1931 1958 2009 2003 1995 1950
USA Contiguous 48 States 2006 1954 2012 2006 1934 1933 1936 1983 1998 1963 1999 1939

NOAA/NCDC manipulating the data to cool the past and make the present seem warmer

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Important:

“Temperatures from 1930-50 have been reduced by nearly a degree fahrenheit, while temperatures since 1970 have been adjusted up by up to a quarter of a degree. The total adjustment, with the pluses and minuses offsetting each other, is fairly small, but the change between 1930 and 2010 is significant.”

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/06/11/christopher-burt-cant-see-the-elephant-in-the-room/

 

“Essentially the state temperatures now shown by NCDC are lower than the originally recorded ones, which are still available online.”

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/06/08/ncdc-cooling-the-past-again/

 

 

 

Warmest May by state according to the NOAA

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States with the warmest May before 1900

Georgia 76.2 1896
Idaho 58.2 1897
Indiana 68.4 1896
Kentucky 71.5 1896
Michigan 62.4 1896
Mississippi 77 1896
North Carolina 72.3 1896
Oklahoma 75 1896
South Carolina 76.5 1896
West Virginia 67.3  1896  

States with the warmest May from 1900 to 1999

Alabama 76.1 1933
Arkansas 74.1 1962
Colorado 59.5 1934
Connecticut 63.1 1991
Florida 78.6 1905
Illinois 69.5 1962
Iowa 68.8 1934
Kansas 71.2 1962
Louisiana 77.3 1933
Maine 57.6 1911
Massachusetts 61.4 1944
Minnesota 64 1977
Missouri 72.1 1962
Montana 59.6 1934
Nebraska 68.5 1934
New Hampshire 59.7 1911
New Jersey 66.1 1991
New Mexico 66.8 1996
New York 61.6 1911
North Dakota 63.1 1977
Ohio 67.5 1991
Oregon 58.6 1992
Pennsylvania 64.8 1944
South Dakota 68.3 1934
Tennessee 72.7 1962
Texas 78.4 1996
Utah 61.8 1934
Vermont 59.9 1975
Virginia 68.8 1953
Washington 60 1958
Wisconsin 63 1977
Wyoming 57.5 1934

States with the warmest May this century

Arizona 72.1 2000
California 69.6 2001
Delaware 69.2 2004
Maryland 69 2004
Nevada 62.1 2001
Rhode Island 61.8 2010

May is cooling

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May is cooling in parts of Canada and the USA. Looking at the NOAA monthly data for May, this is the recent trend (over 10 years or more).

Any ideas why?

Highlighted are more than -1F/decade cooling.

Alabama May is cooling at -0.21F/decade from 1933 to 2012
Arizona May is cooling at -4.2F/decade from 2000 to 2012
Arkansas May is cooling at -0.31F/decade from 1998 to 2012
California May is cooling at -3.41F/decade from 2001 to 2012
Colorado May is cooling at -2.58F/decade from 2000 to 2012
Connecticut May is cooling at -0.11F/decade from 1979 to 2012
Florida May is cooling at -0.04F/decade from 1995 to 2012
Georgia May is cooling at -0.19F/decade from 1933 to 2012
Idaho May is cooling at -3.53F/decade from 2001 to 2012
Illinois May is cooling at -0.26F/decade from 1998 to 2012
Indiana May is cooling at -0.06F/decade from 1998 to 2012
Iowa May is cooling at -0.62F/decade from 1985 to 2012
Kansas May is cooling at -0.71F/decade from 1998 to 2012
Kentucky May is cooling at -0.2F/decade from 1998 to 2012
Louisiana May is cooling at -0.31F/decade from 1998 to 2012
Maine May is cooling at -0.36F/decade from 1998 to 2012
Massachusetts May is cooling at -0.1F/decade from 1975 to 2012
Michigan May is cooling at -0.71F/decade from 1998 to 2012
Minnesota May is cooling at -1.26F/decade from 1985 to 2012
Mississippi May is cooling at -0.1F/decade from 1933 to 2012
Missouri May is cooling at -0.43F/decade from 1998 to 2012
Montana May is cooling at -2.46F/decade from 2000 to 2012
Nebraska May is cooling at -1.09F/decade from 1998 to 2012
Nevada May is cooling at -4.51F/decade from 2001 to 2012
New Hampshire May is cooling at -0.4F/decade from 1975 to 2012
New Mexico May is cooling at -3.07F/decade from 2000 to 2012
North Carolina May is cooling at -0.14F/decade from 1933 to 2012
North Dakota May is cooling at -2.12F/decade from 1985 to 2012
Oklahoma May is cooling at -0.56F/decade from 1996 to 2012
Oregon May is cooling at -3.57F/decade from 2001 to 2012
Pennsylvania May is cooling at -0.12F/decade from 1930 to 2012
South Carolina May is cooling at -0.17F/decade from 1933 to 2012
South Dakota May is cooling at -1.44F/decade from 1985 to 2012
Tennessee May is cooling at -0.14F/decade from 1932 to 2012
Texas May is cooling at -1.16F/decade from 1998 to 2012
Utah May is cooling at -4.18F/decade from 2000 to 2012
Vermont May is cooling at -0.47F/decade from 1975 to 2012
Virginia May is cooling at -0.17F/decade from 1930 to 2012
Washington May is cooling at -2.38F/decade from 2001 to 2012
WestVirginia May is cooling at -0.13F/decade from 1932 to 2012
Wisconsin May is cooling at -0.82F/decade from 1998 to 2012
Wyoming May is cooling at -3.07F/decade from 2000 to 2012

Regions:
Northeast Region May is cooling at -0.02F/decade from 1930 to 2012
East North CentralRegion May is cooling at -0.87F/decade from 1998 to 2012
Central Region May is cooling at -0.04F/decade from 1932 to 2012
Southeast Region May is cooling at -0.13F/decade from 1933 to 2012
WestNorth Central Region May is cooling at -1.78F/decade from 1998 to 2012
South Region May is cooling at -0.75F/decade from 1998 to 2012
Southwest Region May is cooling at -3.47F/decade from 2000 to 2012
Northwest Region May is cooling at -3.19F/decade from 2001 to 2012
West Region May is cooling at -3.82F/decade from 2001 to 2012

National

National( contiguous 48 States) May is cooling at -0.78F/decade from 2000 to 2012