Tag: oscillation

I don’t know what it means, but I’ve been aware of an oscillation pattern in Antarctic Sea Ice Extent for some time.

A while ago I noted the time between oscillations. Today I am just noting the size of the oscillations.

The current satellite record only started around 1978 (and only a partial years data exists). And until 1986, data only exists for alternating days.

Consider that the AMO is about 66 years long. And 1982 (the end of the big oscillations in the early part of the satellite record) is about 33 years ago I wonder if the big oscillation pattern will come to an end soon in the same way it came to an end after 1982? (Update: Or will it oscillate for 33 years?)

We don’t what happened off to the left of the graph (the pre-satellite era) with certainty. Or why these oscillations were once huge, and then settled down and then resumed their large oscillations again.

Click for larger.

 

 

I don’t know what it means, but I’ve been aware of an oscillation pattern in Antarctic Sea Ice Extent for some time. A week or two ago I made a slight change in one of my graphs to annotate the peaks and valleys with the year and now the pattern jumps out at you even more.

This graph is for day 95, but the pattern is similar in other parts of the year.

There has been since 1988 a  4 or 5 year oscillation where the ice extent goes to a valley in between peaks.  And the magnitude of the oscillation is growing.

These are not small oscillations. Sea Ice Extent as of today is 7,000,000 sq km.  The 2011 valley is 4,700,000 sq km. That is a 50% jump in sea ice on day 95 from 2011 to 2014.

I know the AMO has peaked and is poised to start down (it may take a few more years). But to repeat myself, I’m not sure what it means.

Click for larger.