The AMO and Temperature

My Swedish is poor. But the graph is clear. Spitsbergen temperatures are in synch with the AMO. Some translated text below graph. (Thanks)

Grafen viser temperatursvinginger tilbake til slutten av 1800-tallet. Foto: Skjermdump

Contributing to making this part of the report a worrying reading is that the natural climate variations are not included in the used climate models. This is depressing, as it is well known that the air temperature around Svalbard is clearly influenced by the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), which is a natural and periodic variation. This impact is actually mentioned in the report, and this realization ought to have been exploited.

Both the AMO and the air temperature in Longyearbyen have largely covaried since 1898 (see figure). The natural climate variations are thus far from unimportant, and explain better than all CO2-controlled climate models what actually takes place here in Longyearbyen.

AMO is known from measurements since 1856, and geological surveys show that AMO has been in unbroken function for at least the past 8000 years. So it is not likely that AMO will stop in the near future. AMO is currently passing a peak, and will in all likelihood decline over the next 30-35 years. We can all imagine how it will affect the Svalbard temperature. So the natural phenomenon of AMO ought to be included in the report’s assessment of the future climate in Longyearbyen with great emphasis, but does not.

PDO AMO Arctic Antarctic

The graphs start from 1950 to show a full 66 year cycle of the PDO and AMO.

I’m graphing anomalies from the mean for all. Sea Ice is in millions of sq km.

PDO versus Arctic Extent  – note that the satellite record for sea ice starts at peak of PDO

AMO versus Antarctic Extent


AMO Update as of April 2014

UPDATE: Sorry about the title. Not sure what happened. Fixed now.

The AMO is definitely linked with climate cycles. And probably has more to do with Arctic Sea Ice than any other factor. This is loess trend of each month of the AMO on the same graph.

The winter months started trending down around 2005/2008. Spring months have been flattish since the same time. Only July-Sept have stayed high. June has been flat.

The first four months of 2014 were all negative.

AMO From 2000 as of 2014 April

Same graph, but from 1856 and 1979. The spread in months now seems to be repeating the pattern way back in 1856. But that could be an endpoint artifact.

AMO From 1856 as of 2014 April

AMO From 1979 as of 2014 April


Same graphs, but the data and the trends.

AMO From 1856 as of 2014 April (all lines) AMO From 1979 as of 2014 April (all lines) AMO From 2000 as of 2014 April (all lines)

AMO (May) vs Antarctic Sea Ice Day 138

The graph is in thise post compares sea ice extent for just one day of each year – 138 to the AMO for the month day 138 is in – in this case May. There isn’t any AMO data for May 2014 yet.

AMO data comes from NOAA, Sea Ice data comes from NSIDC.

The red is the  May AMO – Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The blue is Antarctic Sea Ice Extent just for day 138.

The dashed lines are the liner trends for each.

Click on the graph for a larger size.

Antarctic Sea Ice Extent for Day 138 From 1979 (infilled)  + AMO

Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Oscillation Pattern Return

I don’t know what it means, but I’ve been aware of an oscillation pattern in Antarctic Sea Ice Extent for some time.

A while ago I noted the time between oscillations. Today I am just noting the size of the oscillations.

The current satellite record only started around 1978 (and only a partial years data exists). And until 1986, data only exists for alternating days.

Consider that the AMO is about 66 years long. And 1982 (the end of the big oscillations in the early part of the satellite record) is about 33 years ago I wonder if the big oscillation pattern will come to an end soon in the same way it came to an end after 1982? (Update: Or will it oscillate for 33 years?)

We don’t what happened off to the left of the graph (the pre-satellite era) with certainty. Or why these oscillations were once huge, and then settled down and then resumed their large oscillations again.

Click for larger.

Antarctic Sea Ice Extent for Day 125 From 1979 (infilled) BIG OSCILLATIONs



Joe Bastardi: Arctic sea ice anomaly in the summer is forecast to be near or above normal

Big story:

There is a huge event being forecasted this year by the CFSV2, and I don’t know if anyone else is mentioning this. For the first time in over a decade, the Arctic sea ice anomaly in the summer is forecast to be near or above normal.”

Read here:

Major Arctic Sea Ice Story Lurking, But Is Anyone Watching?


(h/t NorthwestPassage)


Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Oscillation Pattern

I don’t know what it means, but I’ve been aware of an oscillation pattern in Antarctic Sea Ice Extent for some time. A week or two ago I made a slight change in one of my graphs to annotate the peaks and valleys with the year and now the pattern jumps out at you even more.

This graph is for day 95, but the pattern is similar in other parts of the year.

There has been since 1988 a  4 or 5 year oscillation where the ice extent goes to a valley in between peaks.  And the magnitude of the oscillation is growing.

These are not small oscillations. Sea Ice Extent as of today is 7,000,000 sq km.  The 2011 valley is 4,700,000 sq km. That is a 50% jump in sea ice on day 95 from 2011 to 2014.

I know the AMO has peaked and is poised to start down (it may take a few more years). But to repeat myself, I’m not sure what it means.

Click for larger.


Antarctic Sea Ice Extent for Day 95 From 1980 - Oscilation