My Swedish is poor. But the graph is clear. Spitsbergen temperatures are in synch with the AMO. Some translated text below graph. (Thanks)
Contributing to making this part of the report a worrying reading is that the natural climate variations are not included in the used climate models. This is depressing, as it is well known that the air temperature around Svalbard is clearly influenced by the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), which is a natural and periodic variation. This impact is actually mentioned in the report, and this realization ought to have been exploited.
Both the AMO and the air temperature in Longyearbyen have largely covaried since 1898 (see figure). The natural climate variations are thus far from unimportant, and explain better than all CO2-controlled climate models what actually takes place here in Longyearbyen.
AMO is known from measurements since 1856, and geological surveys show that AMO has been in unbroken function for at least the past 8000 years. So it is not likely that AMO will stop in the near future. AMO is currently passing a peak, and will in all likelihood decline over the next 30-35 years. We can all imagine how it will affect the Svalbard temperature. So the natural phenomenon of AMO ought to be included in the report’s assessment of the future climate in Longyearbyen with great emphasis, but does not.
The graphs start from 1950 to show a full 66 year cycle of the PDO and AMO.
I’m graphing anomalies from the mean for all. Sea Ice is in millions of sq km.
PDO versus Arctic Extent – note that the satellite record for sea ice starts at peak of PDO
AMO versus Antarctic Extent
The AMO for each month as of Dec 2015. Some months the AMO is still high. Some it is low.
Sep/Oct/Nov/Dec only go up to 2014 of course. 2005 was the peak AMO (approximately).
And its downhill to same kind of late 70s cold that made people think a new ice age was coming.
The good news. It should be another 25 years to reach bottom. The bad news. 2005 style warmth is 60 years away.
The AMO syncs up with climate change very nicely. This is just a view I like. The deepest blue sections are the 1970s.
1978/79 was the coldest winter in US history.
UPDATE: Sorry about the title. Not sure what happened. Fixed now.
The AMO is definitely linked with climate cycles. And probably has more to do with Arctic Sea Ice than any other factor. This is loess trend of each month of the AMO on the same graph.
The winter months started trending down around 2005/2008. Spring months have been flattish since the same time. Only July-Sept have stayed high. June has been flat.
The first four months of 2014 were all negative.
Same graph, but from 1856 and 1979. The spread in months now seems to be repeating the pattern way back in 1856. But that could be an endpoint artifact.
Same graphs, but the data and the trends.
The graph is in thise post compares sea ice extent for just one day of each year – 138 to the AMO for the month day 138 is in – in this case May. There isn’t any AMO data for May 2014 yet.
AMO data comes from NOAA, Sea Ice data comes from NSIDC.
The red is the May AMO – Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The blue is Antarctic Sea Ice Extent just for day 138.
The dashed lines are the liner trends for each.
Click on the graph for a larger size.