The graphs start from 1950 to show a full 66 year cycle of the PDO and AMO.
I’m graphing anomalies from the mean for all. Sea Ice is in millions of sq km.
PDO versus Arctic Extent – note that the satellite record for sea ice starts at peak of PDO
AMO versus Antarctic Extent
The AMO for each month as of Dec 2015. Some months the AMO is still high. Some it is low.
Sep/Oct/Nov/Dec only go up to 2014 of course. 2005 was the peak AMO (approximately).
And its downhill to same kind of late 70s cold that made people think a new ice age was coming.
The good news. It should be another 25 years to reach bottom. The bad news. 2005 style warmth is 60 years away.
The AMO syncs up with climate change very nicely. This is just a view I like. The deepest blue sections are the 1970s.
1978/79 was the coldest winter in US history.
UPDATE: Sorry about the title. Not sure what happened. Fixed now.
The AMO is definitely linked with climate cycles. And probably has more to do with Arctic Sea Ice than any other factor. This is loess trend of each month of the AMO on the same graph.
The winter months started trending down around 2005/2008. Spring months have been flattish since the same time. Only July-Sept have stayed high. June has been flat.
The first four months of 2014 were all negative.
Same graph, but from 1856 and 1979. The spread in months now seems to be repeating the pattern way back in 1856. But that could be an endpoint artifact.
Same graphs, but the data and the trends.
The graph is in thise post compares sea ice extent for just one day of each year – 138 to the AMO for the month day 138 is in – in this case May. There isn’t any AMO data for May 2014 yet.
AMO data comes from NOAA, Sea Ice data comes from NSIDC.
The red is the May AMO – Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The blue is Antarctic Sea Ice Extent just for day 138.
The dashed lines are the liner trends for each.
Click on the graph for a larger size.
I don’t know what it means, but I’ve been aware of an oscillation pattern in Antarctic Sea Ice Extent for some time.
A while ago I noted the time between oscillations. Today I am just noting the size of the oscillations.
The current satellite record only started around 1978 (and only a partial years data exists). And until 1986, data only exists for alternating days.
Consider that the AMO is about 66 years long. And 1982 (the end of the big oscillations in the early part of the satellite record) is about 33 years ago I wonder if the big oscillation pattern will come to an end soon in the same way it came to an end after 1982? (Update: Or will it oscillate for 33 years?)
We don’t what happened off to the left of the graph (the pre-satellite era) with certainty. Or why these oscillations were once huge, and then settled down and then resumed their large oscillations again.
Click for larger.