Is the USA warming? The NOAA data says”It depends” – Part 1

Part 1 of 3. Update: Part 1a has all the graphs.

There is an article on WUWT called “Drats! Down the warmhole the warming went” about a new paper from Harvard. I’ve blogged about the NOAA data that shows some states have been cooling here, here and here.

There is also an article on WUWT called “Climate scientists who have been claiming Texas is warming are totally wrong.” I commented with some of the links of my articles to show that Texas is not the only state that isn’t warming.

So rather than continuing to investigate the states one state at a time on the NOAA Climate At a Glance page I thought it would be best to download the raw data here, and analyze it with R myself.

So I read the state.README file, created a state to statecode mapping file from the info in the stae.README and started analyzing.

First step was to graph Arkansas, one of the states I looked a previously. as you can see both the NOAA and I think Arkansas is cooling at -.03F/decade since 1895.

The green line is the trend, the blue line is the default loess fit, the red line is the data, the black line is the average for the whole period, and the faint top and bottom grey lines are max and min.

I think we can agree that Arkansas warmed until about 1921, stayed warm until round 1955, cooled until around 1980 and them warmed up again but never matched the 20s/30s/40s.

So then I graphed all of the continental states (Alaska and Hawaii aren’t in the file, but regional and national summaries are). And then I wrote some code to count which states were cooling from 1895 to 2011 and which were warming.

6 of the 48 were cooling. 3 had a trend of 0.  And 5 had a trend of .01F/decade.

Considering that NOAA/NCDC tend to adjust the heck out of the data to make the present warmer, to find that 30% of the 48 states were cooling to flat from all the way back in 1895 makes me think that the USA is not warming. Parts of it are. Parts of it are not. It is only by putting all of this data in the meat grinder of averaging it all that you can torture out the claim that the USA is warming.

Here are the warming states. 

4 thoughts on “Is the USA warming? The NOAA data says”It depends” – Part 1

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