HADCET – Top 60 Year Warming Trends By Month

The other day I did a post about HADCET data by month showing how some of the months have a 350 year flat trend.

The next day I did a post about the  top 18 year warming trends at anytime in the 350 year history of HADCET.

How about 60 years? Surely the key period in global warming propaganda is 1950 on. You might expect them all to be around 1950 to 2000 or so wouldn’t you? Well, if you believe in global warming you might. But if you haven’t been taken in, you might not.

Well, only two months (July and August) were from the modern era.  October was close, but 1912 to 1971 doesn’t fit the AGW cult criteria.

Eight of  the months  started the trend in the 1600s. One in the 1700s.

So much for CO2 as the cause of “unprecedented warming”. The warming was for the most part very precedented.

Click for a bigger graph.

HADCET Top 60 Year Warming Trends By Month 1663 to 2013

HADCET – Top 18 Year Warming Trends By Month

Yesterday I did post about HADCET data by month showing how some of the months have a 350 year flat trend.

Today I thought I would look at the top 18 year warming trends at anytime in the 350 year history of HADCET. Why 18 years? Well, 1980 to 1998 was 18 years.

You might expect them all to be around 1980 to 1998 wouldn’t you? Well, if believe in global warming you might. But if you haven’t been taken in, you might not.

Only one recent month made it in the top. February 1983 to 2000. 2.53C per decade. Helped by the 5th coldest February in 1986 and the 3rd warmest February in 1998. That was an 8C rise.

But the next closest was January 1959 to 1976.  And five of the trends start in the 1600s! One in the 1700s. And four in the 1800s.

There is nothing unusual about the warm in the 1980s to 1990s.

Click for a bigger graph.

HADCET Top 18 Year Warming Trends By Month 1663 to 2013

 

HADCET – How Far Can You Go Back? June 1663 to June 2013 has a flat trend

I was looking at the HADCET data by month out of curiousity and I noticed that the month of June had a pretty flat trend for a long, long time.

So I thought to myself, how far can I go back with HADCET and get a flat or just slightly flat trend for individual months?

The graph below (click for full size) has a graph for each month. The months are grouped by season. And the data for each month is the the furthest back you can go with a trend of 0C/decade or lower.

The grand champion is June. The trend is 0C/decade from 1663 to 2013.

Wow.  Not much of a “Global Warming Signal” in a 350 year flat trend is there?

2nd longest is February with 0C/Decade trend from 1846 to 2013.

3rd longest is December with a -0.003C/Decade trend from 1907 to 2012.

4th is July from 1981. 5th is March from 1986. 6th and 7th is January and August from 1987.  May from 1988. October and November from 1994, September from 1995, And April from 2001,

I always wonder why CO2 is such a selective month.

HADCET How Far Can You Go Back 1663 to September 2013  Less Than or Equal to 0C. per Dec.

MET Throws Hissy Fit Over Winter Temprature Predictions

“We saw similar headlines last year and instead winter 12/13 ended up being only the 43rd coldest on record with an average temperature of 3.3C and flooding until the turn of the year.”

Technically correct, but HADCET March 2013 was the 11th coldest March since 1659.

December 2013 was 3.3C colder than the warmest December.  January 2013 was 4C colder than the warmest January . And February 2013 was 4.7C colder than the warmest February.

No sign of global warming in HADCET for the winter months.

“While we have seen a return to more normal, cooler temperatures for this time of year, this is no indication of what we can expect over the next four months with regards to temperatures ”

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/10/12/winter-forecasting-responding-to-the-headlines/

Lets look at the last 15 years of HADCET for each month. What would you predict? 

HADCET  Last 15 Years

HADCET September 2013 – Only 128 Years Were Warmer

 HADCET (Central England Temperature) Sep 2013 was tied for 129th warmest out of 352 at 13.7C. The warmest September was 16.8C  in 2006. The 2nd warmest was 16.6C in 1729!!!!

The barplot is the Septembers since 1659. The temperature is the anomaly from the 1981 to 2010 average.

The yellow bars are the years warmer than September 2013. Green bars indicate a tie with September 2013. Click for bigger.

HADCET (since 1659) monthly mean - Sep

HADCET Aug 2013 – Tied For 41st Warmest out of 351

 HADCET (Central England Temperature) Aug 2013 was tied for 41st warmest.

2013 was tied with 1704 1727 1743 1792 1807 1831 1835 1856 and 1937.

The barplot is the Augusts since 1659. The temperature is the anomaly from the 1981 to 2010 average.

The yellow bars are the years warmer than August 2013. Green bars indicate a tie with August 2013. Click for bigger.

HADCET (since 1659) monthly mean - Aug