MET Throws Hissy Fit Over Winter Temprature Predictions

“We saw similar headlines last year and instead winter 12/13 ended up being only the 43rd coldest on record with an average temperature of 3.3C and flooding until the turn of the year.”

Technically correct, but HADCET March 2013 was the 11th coldest March since 1659.

December 2013 was 3.3C colder than the warmest December.  January 2013 was 4C colder than the warmest January . And February 2013 was 4.7C colder than the warmest February.

No sign of global warming in HADCET for the winter months.

“While we have seen a return to more normal, cooler temperatures for this time of year, this is no indication of what we can expect over the next four months with regards to temperatures ”

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/10/12/winter-forecasting-responding-to-the-headlines/

Lets look at the last 15 years of HADCET for each month. What would you predict? 

HADCET  Last 15 Years

HADCET September 2013 – Only 128 Years Were Warmer

 HADCET (Central England Temperature) Sep 2013 was tied for 129th warmest out of 352 at 13.7C. The warmest September was 16.8C  in 2006. The 2nd warmest was 16.6C in 1729!!!!

The barplot is the Septembers since 1659. The temperature is the anomaly from the 1981 to 2010 average.

The yellow bars are the years warmer than September 2013. Green bars indicate a tie with September 2013. Click for bigger.

HADCET (since 1659) monthly mean - Sep

HADCET Aug 2013 – Tied For 41st Warmest out of 351

 HADCET (Central England Temperature) Aug 2013 was tied for 41st warmest.

2013 was tied with 1704 1727 1743 1792 1807 1831 1835 1856 and 1937.

The barplot is the Augusts since 1659. The temperature is the anomaly from the 1981 to 2010 average.

The yellow bars are the years warmer than August 2013. Green bars indicate a tie with August 2013. Click for bigger.

HADCET (since 1659) monthly mean - Aug

HADCET May 2013 – Tied For 79th Coldest out of 351

HADCET (Centreal England Temperature) May 2013 was tied for 79th coldest out of 351 with an average temperature of 10.4C. The warmest May was 15.1C in 1833.

2013 was tied with 1748,1783,1843,1851,1861,1880 and 1967.

The barplot is the 351 May’s since 1659. The temperature is the anomaly from the 1981 to 2010 average.

The most interesting thing about the following graph is the cluster of red bars from 1994 to 2009 which were all above average.

They were not hotter than previous years. They were just not interspersed with cold May’s. The two cold May’s in 2010 and 2013 are a return to normal with cold and hotter May’s occurring beside each other.

HADCET (since 1659) monthly mean - May

 

 

HADCET – March 2013 is tied for 12th coldest March Since 1659

The HADCET dataset is the longest instrumental record of temperature in the world.

One of the minor problems with HADCET is they calculate anomalies from the 1961-1990 average.

This is HADCET (March Only) with anomalies calculated from the most recent 30 years average: 1981 to 2010.

HADCET (since 1659) monthly mean - MAR

15 Coldest March’s (pretty ancient company)

Year MAR
1674 1
1785 1.2
1748 1.8
1883 1.9
1667 2
1845 2
1786 2.1
1789 2.1
1837 2.3
1747 2.5
1770 2.5
1784 2.7
1892 2.7
2013 2.7
1701 2.8

HADCET June July and August trend for 350 years is a measly .009C per decade

HADCET is the Central England Temperature record maintained by the UK Met. The seasonal mean data is available here.

If you graph JJA (June, July and August) the trend is a measly .009C per decade.

The two warmest years are 1976 and 1826. 2011 JJA was 14.8C, below the mean, and 3C colder than 1976.

We were told we were going to fry as “Global Warming” gets going.