'Academics are baffled'. Let me help them:
It was very cold. The government has pushed up energy bills to pay for #renewables because scientists tell us it's going to be very warm. The sick & elderly die from cold-related illnesses in under-heated homes.https://t.co/ZDGVbE8Ioy
— Jaime Jessop (@Balinteractive) May 14, 2018
In a recent study a team of scientists led by Prof. Pierre Gosselin assessed 112,793 people aged 65 years and older who had been diagnosed with heart failure in Quebec between 2001 and 2011. Over an average of 635 days, the researchers measured the mean temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and air pollutants in the surrounding environment and studied the data to see if there was any relationship.
Their results: for each decrease of 1°C in the daily mean temperature of the previous 3 and 7 days, the risk of heart failure events is increased of about 0.7%. In other words, a drop of 10°C in the average temperature over 7 days, which is common in the province of Quebec because of seasonal variations, is associated with increased risk to be hospitalized or to die for the main cause of heart failure of about 7% in elderly diagnosed with this disease.
The concept of “Excess Winter Deaths” is straightforward. Winter kills.
You could save 3 people a day from dying in the winter by raising temps 5C.
If the temperature went up 5C in Ontario, it would kill 4 people a day in summer.
If the temperature went up 5C in Ontario, it would save 7 people a day in winter.
In warm seasons, each 5°C increase in daily mean temperature was associated with a 2.5% increase in nonaccidental deaths (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.3% to 3.8%) on the day of exposure (lag 0). In cold seasons, each 5°C decrease in daily temperature was associated with a 3.0% (95% CI 1.8% to 4.2%) increase in nonaccidental deaths, which persisted over 7 days (lag 0-6). The cold-related effects (lag 0-6) were stronger for cardiovascular-related deaths (any cardiovascular death: 4.1%, 95% CI 2.3% to 5.9%; ischemic heart disease: 5.8%, 95% CI 3.6% to 8.1%), especially among people less than 65 years of age (8.0%, 95% CI 3.0% to 13.0%). Conversely, heat most strongly increased respiratory-related deaths during admission to hospital (26.0%, 95% CI 0% to 61.4%).
Across Ontario, each 5°C change in daily temperature was estimated to induce 7 excess deaths per day in cold seasons and 4 excess deaths in warm seasons.
Interpretation: Heat contributed to excess deaths in Ontario, although the effect of cold weather appeared to be greater. Further work is required to better define high-risk subgroups, which might include the homeless and people with inadequately heated housing.
Warming did it. Cooling did it.
“The Earth has known several mass extinctions over the course of its history. One of the most important happened at the Permian-Triassic boundary 250 million years ago. Over 95% of marine species disappeared and, up until now, scientists have linked this extinction to a significant rise in Earth temperatures. But researchers have now discovered that this extinction took place during a short ice age which preceded the global climate warming.”
The daily surface mass balance on the Greenland Ice Sheet is well above normal.
On August 1, the Danish Meteorological Institute’s measuring station registered an appalling -30.7 ° C at the ice cap’s summit.
“This is the lowest temperature for July we have from this station,” said John Cappelen.
The previous record was -27.7 ° C on 30 July 1992.
I came across a new paper trying to claim that increased temperatures caused by global warming will kill more “old people” in Beijing.
In the supplementary data they posted the graph of daily mortality.
First thing I noticed is that deaths peak in January and bottom out in the summer.
Yes there are some summertime spikes. But it appears that something like 60 more people die per day die in January than in July.
It seems to me that if winters are warmer, lives will be saved.
According to the NOAA, May 2016 was ranked 49th coldest out of 122.
That is essentially a tie with May 2015. The warmest May Tmax’s were 1934, 1936, 2012 and and 1939.
The following map shows state rankings. 122 = warmest. 1 would be coldest.
Note the states ranked 7th and 8th coldest. Wow. Not much El Nino effects …