National Post Tries to Scare Canadians – And Fails If you Look Carefully

National Post has published some maps claiming Canada is going to suffer from “scorching summers”.

I’ve hit my online paper article limit so I’ll post the tweet.

The animated gif starts with a scary January, lots of red. And article/tweet predicts “warm winters, scorching summers”.

Note that they are using “mean temperatures”, not maximums.

But if you capture the monthly images , when do you notice about the summer months?

June/July/Aug are not scary and all red. They are pretty high up on the scale (which means the lowest change)

 

And I repeat. This is mean temperatures. Not max. And having looked at the data I know many of the BC cities have a very low rate of maximum change versus minimum.

It is the minimums that are climbing in a lot of cities and the max isn’t.

Here is my original hometown of Kelowna. Tmax has barely changed since 1900 (and in fact dropped from 1900 to 1950 and then climbed a bit since then.

The ratio of Tmin change to Tmax change is 10.8 to 1. Look at the Tmin climb. Huge. 7C warmer.

 

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Save Lives – Raise the Temperature

The concept of “Excess Winter Deaths” is straightforward. Winter kills.

You could save 3 people a day from dying in the winter by raising temps 5C.

If the temperature went up 5C in Ontario, it would kill 4 people a day in summer.

If the temperature went up 5C in Ontario, it would save 7 people a day in winter.

In warm seasons, each 5°C increase in daily mean temperature was associated with a 2.5% increase in nonaccidental deaths (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.3% to 3.8%) on the day of exposure (lag 0). In cold seasons, each 5°C decrease in daily temperature was associated with a 3.0% (95% CI 1.8% to 4.2%) increase in nonaccidental deaths, which persisted over 7 days (lag 0-6). The cold-related effects (lag 0-6) were stronger for cardiovascular-related deaths (any cardiovascular death: 4.1%, 95% CI 2.3% to 5.9%; ischemic heart disease: 5.8%, 95% CI 3.6% to 8.1%), especially among people less than 65 years of age (8.0%, 95% CI 3.0% to 13.0%). Conversely, heat most strongly increased respiratory-related deaths during admission to hospital (26.0%, 95% CI 0% to 61.4%).

Across Ontario, each 5°C change in daily temperature was estimated to induce 7 excess deaths per day in cold seasons and 4 excess deaths in warm seasons.

Interpretation: Heat contributed to excess deaths in Ontario, although the effect of cold weather appeared to be greater. Further work is required to better define high-risk subgroups, which might include the homeless and people with inadequately heated housing.

 

Fort McMurray – Jeff Masters – Hot Days Histogram

The other day I did a post point out that it did get hot in Fort McMurray in April and May.

That post (and this) is using data from Environment Canada for 1908 to 1944.

Remember what Jeff Masters said:

“Fort McMurray saw record daily highs of 91°F on Tuesday and 89°F on Wednesday. The city gets this warm on only about five days in a typical year, and those days are usually in July or August (even then, the average daily high is between 70°F and 75°F)”

I’ve done two sets of histograms using the 75F (24C) boundary suggested by Jeff Masters. One for April/May and One for July/Aug.

In April/May 1944 there were 14 days 24C  and above.

In July/Aug 1944 there were 40 days 24C  and above.

HotDay_Histogram_ - April May - Hot Day HistogramHotDay_Histogram_ - July Aug - Hot Day Histogram

Fort McMurray – April and May

The other day I did a post pointing out that most of the really hot temperature records in Canada occurred 1936 to 1941.

Then I did a post about  Jeff Masters at Wunderground  claiming it never got this hot in Fort McMurray before in May.

I had only found monthly data before 1944. Reader Fred found pre-1944 daily data under the name “Ft McMurray”.

Jeff Masters said:

“Fort McMurray saw record daily highs of 91°F on Tuesday and 89°F on Wednesday. The city gets this warm on only about five days in a typical year, and those days are usually in July or August (even then, the average daily high is between 70°F and 75°F)”

Lets look at the data! Wow!!!!! And this was before 80,000 people and all the UHI moved in.

10 Warmest April Days Before 1944

Date Max Temp C Max Temp F
1939-04-29 35 95
1939-04-28 28.3 82.9
1941-04-30 27.8 82
1941-04-26 27.2 81
1941-04-29 27.2 81
1924-04-26 26.7 80.1
1915-04-29 26.1 79
1931-04-29 26.1 79
1915-04-24 25.6 78.1
1943-04-14 25.6 78.1

10 Warmest May Days Before 1944

Date Max Temp C Max Temp F
1936-05-29 36.7 98.1
1916-05-21 33.9 93
1936-05-28 33.3 91.9
1944-05-04 33.3 91.9
1934-05-25 32.8 91
1944-05-28 32.8 91
1919-05-19 32.2 90
1936-05-26 32.2 90
1940-05-23 32.2 90
1924-05-14 31.7 89.1

For fun, lets look at the whole year.

Date Max Temp C Max Temp F
1941-07-18 38.9 102
1916-07-02 37.8 100
1916-07-31 36.7 98.1
1924-07-02 36.7 98.1
1936-05-29 36.7 98.1
1937-06-29 36.7 98.1
1944-06-29 36.7 98.1
1941-07-15 35.6 96.1
1941-07-16 35.6 96.1
1918-07-10 35 95
1924-07-01 35 95
1939-04-29 35 95
1939-08-04 35 95
1916-06-30 34.4 93.9
1917-07-16 34.4 93.9
1919-06-20 34.4 93.9
1927-07-24 34.4 93.9
1930-07-14 34.4 93.9
1910-06-11 33.9 93
1916-05-21 33.9 93
1916-08-26 33.9 93
1925-06-28 33.9 93
1925-08-02 33.9 93
1926-07-05 33.9 93
1936-06-23 33.9 93

Fort McMurray and Climate Change and “Scientists”

Yesterday I did a post pointing out that most of the really hot temperature records in Canada occurred 1936 to 1941.

Today I noticed that Jeff Masters at Wunderground  was claiming it never got this hot in Fort McMurray before in May.

I’ll just post a few quick facts.

  1. The monthly data for Fort McMurray only goes back to 1944. I doubt daily goes further back.
  2. The really hot years were the 1936 – 1941 years. So temperature records missed the 1936-1941 period.

Here are the ten warmest May’s (in terms of TX = Tmax) in For McMurray from 1944 on.

Year Month Tx Tn Tm
1986 5 34.8 -3 11.6
1944 5 32.8 -7.8 12
1961 5 32.8 -5.6 10
1971 5 32.8 -5.6 12.3
1995 5 32.8 -6.7 10.5
2003 5 31.3 -5.4 9.3
1972 5 31.1 -6.7 12
1987 5 30.8 -6.9 11.1
1948 5 30.6 -4.4 11.1
1980 5 30.6 -3.8 11.2

Fort McMurray and Climate Change

Fort McMurray Alberta, Canada is burning. 1,600 homes so far.

Some people have already started blaming “Climate Change”.

Here is wikipedia’s list of hottest temperatures ever recorded in Canada. 1937, 1936, 1941 …. You have to go to the bottom of the list to find one from 1960 and one from 1961. Look up dustbowl (but be careful … wikepedia and others blame the following temperatures on bad plowing techniques)

Date Recorded Location Temperature
July 5, 1937 Midale, Saskatchewan 45.0 °C
July 5, 1937 Yellow Grass, Saskatchewan 45.0 °C
July 11, 1936 St. Albans, Manitoba 44.4 °C
July 11, 1936 Emerson, Manitoba 44.4 °C
July 5, 1937 Fort Qu’Appelle, Saskatchewan 44.4 °C
July 16, 1941 Lillooet, British Columbia 44.4 °C
July 16, 1941 Lytton, British Columbia 44.4 °C
July 17, 1941 Lillooet, British Columbia 44.4 °C
July 17, 1941 Lytton, British Columbia 44.4 °C
July 17, 1941 Chinook Cove, British Columbia 44.4 °C
July 29, 1934 Rock Creek, British Columbia 43.9 °C
July 5, 1936 Midale, Saskatchewan 43.9 °C
July 11, 1936 Emerson, Manitoba 43.9 °C
July 11, 1936 Morden, Manitoba 43.9 °C
July 4, 1937 Rosetown, Saskatchewan 43.9 °C
July 5, 1937 Regina, Saskatchewan 43.9 °C
July 16, 1941 Oliver, British Columbia 43.9 °C
June 23, 1900 Cannington, Saskatchewan 43.3 °C
June 25, 1919 Dauphin, Manitoba 43.3 °C
July 31, 1926 Fort Qu’Appelle, Saskatchewan 43.3 °C
July 24, 1927 Greenwood, British Columbia 43.3 °C
July 25, 1931 Fort Qu’Appelle, Saskatchewan 43.3 °C
July 5, 1936 Estevan, Saskatchewan 43.3 °C
July 7, 1936 Emerson, Manitoba 43.3 °C
July 11, 1936 Waskada, Manitoba 43.3 °C
July 11, 1936 Virden, Manitoba 43.3 °C
July 11, 1936 Brandon, Manitoba 43.3 °C
July 11, 1936 Greenfell, Saskatchewan 43.3 °C
July 5, 1937 Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan 43.3 °C
July 5, 1937 Grenfell, Saskatchewan 43.3 °C
July 5, 1937 Francis, Saskatchewan 43.3 °C
July 5, 1937 Regina, Saskatchewan 43.3 °C
July 5, 1937 Estevan, Saskatchewan 43.3 °C
July 5, 1937 Carlyle, Saskatchewan 43.3 °C
July 12, 1937 Regina, Saskatchewan 43.3 °C
July 27, 1939 Oliver, British Columbia 43.3 °C
July 17, 1941 Oliver, British Columbia 43.3 °C
July 17, 1941 Skagit River, British Columbia 43.3 °C
July 19, 1941 Elbow, Saskatchewan 43.3 °C
July 19, 1941 Lumsden, Saskatchewan 43.3 °C
August 6, 1949 Rosetown, Saskatchewan 43.3 °C
July 19, 1960 Newgate, British Columbia 43.3 °C
August 5, 1961 Maple Creek, Saskatchewan 43.3 °C

 

Polar Bears Are Morons (Maybe Not)

A study claims Polar Bears are swimming longer, tiring them out and that maybe cause them problems.

The Polar Bear Science Blog points out the obvious:

So, despite what may be implied during media moments, Beaufort Sea polar bears were  not frantically trying to reach the sea ice from land so that they could attempt to keep feeding over the summer – most of their swimming was done during breakup in July and August from one bit of pack ice to another and they showed no evidence of harm from doing so.

What do you think? Do you think they swim like this (avoiding all ice floes):

PB1

Or like this (jumping on ice floes for a rest when they need it):

 

PB2