AGW “Experts” Are Idiots!

Experts: Global warming means more Antarctic ice (h/t Marc Morano)

“This subtle growth in winter sea ice since scientists began measuring it in 1979 was initially surprising, they say, but makes sense the more it is studied.”

Translation: It was embarrassing us, so we’ll make something up.

“A warming world can have complex and sometimes surprising consequences,”

Translation: Antarctica is cooling, we don’t know why, so we will claim it is warming.

“”It sounds counterintuitive, but the Antarctic is part of the warming as well.”

Translation: More Ice = Warming and Less Ice = Warming. Our scam wins either way!

“But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be paying attention to it and shouldn’t be talking about it.”

Translation: We ignored the records in 2006 and 2012 and finally a few bloggers embarrassed us so much about 2012 that we had our buddy Seth Borenstein make up some crap.

“Antarctica’s weather peculiarities, on the other hand, don’t have much effect on civilization.”

Translation: It threatens our gravy train of grant money so we kept quiet about it.

“And the wind works in combination with the ozone hole, the huge gap in Earth’s protective ozone layer that usually appears over the South Pole”

Translation: We plan to ignore the ozone hole over the Arctic … which we never predicted either.

“Antarctic sea ice is also getting snowier because climate change has allowed the air to carry more moisture.

Guffaw.

“Winter sea ice has grown by about 1 percent a decade in Antarctica. ”

Actually, only one year before 1998 (1980 had 3) had days over 19 million sq km of Antarctic Ice. 2006 had 30 and 2012 had 28.

“computer models have long predicted that Antarctica would not respond as quickly to global warming as other places. ”

Translation; Models said it would melt too. Our models are crap.

“Scientists on the cruise with Maksym are spending eight to 12 hours a day on the ice bundled up against the fierce wind with boots that look like Bugs Bunny’s feet.”

Translation: Clown Feet would be more appropriate.

HADCRUT4 – The Scammers Are Getting Shameless

HADCRUT4 is the new Met Office dataset designed to replaced HADCRUT3. Why do they need to replace HADCRUT3?

Because the trend for the last 15 years in HADCRUT3 is negative and therefore it must be exterminated – like the Medieval Warming Period.

The following graph compares HADCRUT4 to HADCRUT3. (Click for a larger version)

Take note of the following:

1) HADCRUT3 and HADCRUT4 overlaps until about 2002 with minor differences.

2) For some reason, after 2002, there appears to be corrections of .1 to .2C. Why was the data ok in 1997-2002 and suddenly it was so bad it had to be “corrected”.

3) What justifies a .2C adjustment up in 2007? Thats 40% higher!

4) Every place a red line is well above the blue they have adjusted up to make the the “new dataset”  hotter.

5) HADCRUT3 trend (the dashed line) was negative (-.016C/Decade). HADCRUT4 is positive (.033C/Decade).

USCRN vs NOAA September 2012

USCRN vs NOAA September 2012 update.

The USCRN is a new ‘state of the art’ United States Climate Reference Network. The USCRN “consists of 114 stations developed, deployed, managed, and maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the continental United States for the express purpose of detecting the national signal of climate change.”

This is the monthly Mean from both NOAA and USCRN for September 2012 for the 48 continental states.

16 states show USCRN stations warmer than NOAA (bold) and 32 show NOAA warmer than USCRN.

NOAA – USCRN = NOAA state temperature average minus USCRN state temperature average.

Ignoring area weighting, the NOAA temperature averaged 0.80F warmer than USCRN.

State NOAA USCRN NOAA – USCRN
Alabama 73 71.72 1.28
Arizona 73.7 74.61 -0.91
Arkansas 73.1 71.24 1.86
California 72.7 72.37 0.33
Colorado 59.6 59.76 -0.16
Florida 79.5 80.36 -0.86
Georgia 74.1 74.97 -0.87
Idaho 59.3 61.88 -2.58
Illinois 64.7 61.52 3.18
Indiana 64.1 64.76 -0.66
Iowa 61.8 63.14 -1.34
Kansas 67.6 66.02 1.58
Kentucky 67 67.19 -0.19
Louisiana 77.2 75.83 1.37
Maine 56.4 55.58 0.82
Michigan 58.5 54.86 3.64
Minnesota 57.1 54.23 2.87
Mississippi 74.2 71.24 2.96
Missouri 66.7 65.84 0.86
Montana 58.4 55.72 2.68
Nebraska 63.4 62.83 0.57
Nevada 65.4 67.52 -2.12
New Hampshire 58.3 59.45 -1.15
New Mexico 66.1 64.17 1.93
New York 60 59.63 0.37
North Carolina 69.8 66.26 3.54
North Dakota 57.2 57.98 -0.78
Ohio 63.2 62.24 0.96
Oklahoma 74.1 71.73 2.37
Oregon 60.9 61.34 -0.44
Pennsylvania 62.3 64.4 -2.1
Rhode Island 62.9 61.88 1.02
South Carolina 73.4 74.03 -0.63
South Dakota 62.5 61.34 1.16
Tennessee 69 64.22 4.78
Texas 76.7 76.84 -0.14
Utah 64.1 63.75 0.35
Virginia 67.1 68.36 -1.26
Washington 60.6 58.28 2.32
West Virginia 64 57.2 6.8
Wisconsin 57.8 57.56 0.24
Wyoming 58.3 58.22 0.08

NOAA September 2012 Was Average (compared to the last 15 years)

September 2012 in the continental USA was almost exactly average compared to the last 15 years.

September 2012 was 3F colder than September 1998. The trend for Septembers since 1997 was dropping -.31F / decade.

From 1895 to 2012, 22 Septembers were warmer (1998 was the warmest).

Some of the warmer Septembers were: 1931,1933,1939,1922,1925,1938,1921,1947,1897,1954,1960,1963,1936,1906.

1897?

NSIDC Ignored Antarctica in 2006 Too

Antarctic Sea Ice Extent set an all time record in 2012. The previous record was set in 2006. In 2006 there were 30 days where the ice extent was over 19 million sq km. That record has not been broken and was 9 days more than the previous record holder (1998).

So what did the NSIDC have to say about it in 2006?

Nothing.

They mentioned the Arctic a lot. And Al Gore’s movie. And that there was going to be an open house. But they ignored Antarctica. If they were scientists and not propagandists shouldn’t they be interested in both poles and maximum records too?

 

 

28 days of 19 million sq km Antarctic Sea Ice Extent

Only 9 years in the satellite era have seen Antarctic Sea Ice Extent hit 19 million sq km.  2006 had 30 days. In the last 2 days  2012 has trend up again over 19 million and put it within 2 days of tying the all time record. Aside from 1980, all of those years have been since 1998 which some people claim have been the hottest years in the history of human beings. Antarctic Sea Ice Extent disagrees.

Year Days Above 19 million Last Day Above 19 million
2006 30 283
2012 28 281
1998 21 281
2005 13 278
2009 11 271
2007 9 275
2004 6 254
2000 5 274
1980 3 269

Click for larger …

USCRN vs NOAA August 2012

USCRN vs NOAA August 2012 update. (I’m late because USCRN didn’t post August monthly temperatures until October 3rd after they posted September data).

The USCRN is a new ‘state of the art’ United States Climate Reference Network. The USCRN “consists of 114 stations developed, deployed, managed, and maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the continental United States for the express purpose of detecting the national signal of climate change.”

This is the monthly Mean from both NOAA and USCRN for August 2012 for the 48 continental states.

14 states show USCRN stations warmer than NOAA (bold) and 34 show NOAA warmer than USCRN.

NOAA – USCRN = NOAA state temperature average minus USCRN state temperature average.

Ignoring area weighting, the NOAA temperature averaged 0.83F warmer than USCRN.

State NOAA USCRN NOAA – USCRN
Alabama 78.3 77.37 0.93
Arizona 80.8 81.62 -0.82
Arkansas 80 78.44 1.56
California 77.5 75.56 1.94
Colorado 67.9 68.57 -0.67
Florida 81.6 82.04 -0.44
Georgia 78.3 78.75 -0.45
Idaho 68.5 71.24 -2.74
Illinois 73.5 69.62 3.88
Indiana 71.8 74.3 -2.5
Iowa 70.9 71.24 -0.34
Kansas 76.2 75.38 0.82
Kentucky 74.3 74.66 -0.36
Louisiana 81.8 81.14 0.66
Maine 68 67.37 0.63
Michigan 67.5 64.94 2.56
Minnesota 66.5 64.04 2.46
Mississippi 79.3 77.63 1.67
Missouri 76.4 75.08 1.32
Montana 67.2 64.26 2.94
Nebraska 72.6 72.09 0.51
Nevada 73.9 74.9 -1
New Hampshire 68.8 70.25 -1.45
New Mexico 73.9 72.19 1.71
New York 68.7 68.36 0.34
North Carolina 75.7 71.96 3.74
North Dakota 66.8 66.62 0.18
Ohio 71.6 71.42 0.18
Oklahoma 81.3 79.97 1.33
Oregon 67.6 66.74 0.86
Pennsylvania 70.2 72.86 -2.66
Rhode Island 71.8 70.34 1.46
South Carolina 77.9 77.54 0.36
South Dakota 70.9 69.84 1.06
Tennessee 75.5 69.98 5.52
Texas 83.7 83.82 -0.12
Utah 74.1 73.26 0.84
Virginia 74.3 75.65 -1.35
Washington 67.8 64.46 3.34
West Virginia 70.9 63.68 7.22
Wisconsin 67.3 68.36 -1.06
Wyoming 67.6 66.62 0.98

2012 Highest September Average Antarctic Sea Ice of All Time!

Antarctic Sea Ice Extent for September 2012 averaged 19.1702 million sq km.

That is the highest September average of ALL TIME!!!! (during the satellite era).

Year Average for September (million sq km)
2012 19.1702
2006 19.0932
2009 18.9596
2004 18.9184
1998 18.9027
2000 18.8872
2007 18.8599
1980 18.817
2005 18.8036
2010 18.7979
1985 18.7061
1999 18.6957
2011 18.6937
1996 18.6308
1994 18.6144
1981 18.5972
1997 18.5955
1983 18.5864
1993 18.5438
1995 18.4147
1982 18.3555
1991 18.3121
1988 18.3064
2003 18.299
1987 18.2454
1979 18.1968
1990 18.1924
2001 18.1742
1984 18.166
1992 18.1474
2008 18.1443
1989 18.1194
2002 17.8866
1986 17.6925

Warmist Trying to Blame Roman Warming on Man and Firewood

A new paper is out attempting to blame the Roman Optimum warming on man. The argument is that they found a lot of methane in the ice cores. And when the C12 C13 isotope ratio was studied they found a lot of C13 which means (according to the authors) the methane came from wood burning. Keep in mind that the number one methane source today is in fact agriculture, with rice farming being #1.

“At between 50 and 100 million tonnes of methane a year, rice agriculture is a big source of atmospheric methane, possibly the biggest of man-made methane sources. The warm, waterlogged soil of rice paddies provides ideal conditions for methanogenesis, and though some of the methane produced is usually oxidized by methanotrophs in the shallow overlying water, the vast majority is released into the atmosphere.”

I know Romans burnt a lot of wood for their baths and for heating. But I also know from The Cheefio that not all plants treat C12 and C13 the same.

“C4 metabolism plants absorb more C13 than do C3 metabolism plants.”

The main C4 metabolism plants are maize, sugar cane, millet, and sorghum and about 7600 other plants.

So could Romans have been eating more C4 plants changing the C13 isotope ratio of methane?

Why yes some people in Roman times ate a lot millet and millet is a C4 metabolism plant:
.

“Just a few days ago, only the second isotope study of millet consumption in the Roman Empire was published, by Pollard and colleagues in the American Journal of Physical Anthropology. In a small Romano-British cemetery in Kent (late 3rd-early 4th century AD), a salvage archaeology project uncovered a dozen burials that were simple in nature: only coffin nails and hobnails from boots were found in most graves. Among these simple farmers, though, was an individual with a surprisingly high carbon isotope value, so Pollard and colleagues undertook a dietary (C/N) and migration (Sr/O) study of the individuals.

.

The anomalous partially complete skeleton was that of a male over the age of 45 buried wearing hobnail boots. The individual’s nitrogen isotope ratio was a bit high (11.2 permil), indicating aquatic resource consumption, but was not higher than average for Roman Britain. His carbon isotope ratio from collagen, however, came in at -15.2 permil, in stark comparison to the average of the other individuals of -19.8 permil (see below). This difference may not seem dramatic until you factor in the standard deviation – variation within the d13C ratios of the others from the site was only 0.3! This person was therefore eating a whole bunch of C4 resources – millet, sorghum, or animals foddered on those grains.”

Nothing I’ve said proves it wasn’t firewood. But people and scientists should know the C12/C13 C3/C4 ration issues and should deal with them properly.