Could CO2 have lowered the rate of natural warming?

Lets say you have a pot of water that is warming, but you can’t see underneath it. There is a thermometer in the pot, and intermittently you write down the temperature.

And at some point some people come up with a theory that suggests a 2nd candle is now adding its energy to the pot of water. So what are you going to do?

Well, one way is to take the temperature data and graph it and calculate the trend before and after the supposed appearance of the 2nd candle. The change in trend is possibly the extra energy added by the 2nd candle.

Of course the analogy is really about CO2. So lets pick say … 1945 as the supposed appearance of the 2nd candle (CO2).

Why 1945? That is when CO2 really took off. Here is the CDIAC data in million metric tons of CO2.

CDIAC-co2

 

And here is the data graphed. 1900 to 1945 in red. And 1945 to 2014 in blue. With trends.  I used Woodfortrees for the graph and here is the url.

Candle_1945_2014

 

So … what are the trends.

1900 to 1945 = 0.0110866C / Year

1945 to 2014 = 0.00954579 / Year

 

I conclude the 2nd candle actually changed the trend downward by 0.00154081C / Year.

Maybe it wasn’t a candle? Maybe it was an ice cube.

I think only conspiracy theorists could come up with a 2nd candle theory when the trend actually went down.

 

 

 

USA NOAA March 2014 – 43rd Coldest – Colder Than 1898,1900,1901,1902,1903,1904,1905,1907 …

According to the NOAA March 2014 was 43rd coldest out of 120 March’s.

That is the 2nd March in a row colder than the 1901-2000 average.

This is a partial list of the March’s warmer than 2014: 1898,1900,1901,1902,1903,1904,1905,1907,1908,1910,1911,1914,1916,1918,1919,1921,1925,1927,1928,1929,1933,1934,1935,1936,1938,1939 … 

NOAA_Mar_2014

 

AGW Cult: “We Messed Up the Currents” So No One Can Find MH370

I think Mother Jones is trying for the top of the list for stupid claims about “Global Warming”.

“Scientists say man-made climate change has fundamentally altered the currents of the vast, deep oceans where investigators are currently scouring for the missing Malaysian Airlines flight, setting a complex stage for the ongoing search for MH370. If the Boeing 777 did plunge into the ocean somewhere in the vicinity of where the Indian Ocean meets the Southern Ocean, the location where its debris finally ends up, if found at all, may be vastly different from where investigators could have anticipated 30 years ago. “

I’m laughing too hard to write any more.

 

 

XKCD and Global Warming and St Louis

XKCD is a funny geeky comic that I read quite regularly. The blog Inconvenient Skeptic has a good post about being annoyed with a recent XKCD strip that mocks people for using the recent cold days to “disprove” global warming.

Go ahead, read the blog posting (if you are still interested) and comic and then return here.

I was ticked at XKCD for the obvious reason. The mainstream media always loves to blame global warming for any warm spell but never uses cold spells to mock the concept of global warming. I guess when XKCD followed along I was disappointed.

However, beyond that point I was interested in the St Louis data linked by the blog post here. I was immediately interested in the heatwave data in this Excel spreadsheet. I’ll just show the top twenty rows.

Notice 2012 didn’t make the top of any highlighted lists. It came close.  But 1954, 1963 and 1936 had more days greater than 90F. 1936 topped consecutive days above 90F.

And 1936, 1934 and 1954 topped the list of days over 100F. And 1936 was the year with most consecutive days above 100F.

And the red circled years are the Least number of days above 90F and 100F. Notice there are recent years without any 100F days at all.

And while I didn’t highlight it, notice that in 1954 22 days were above 100F. Only 18 were in Jun/Jul/Aug. The other 4 were int the spring or fall. Now thats hot.

So much for recent “warming”. St Louis had more extreme heat in the past. Even 2012 did not set new records.

StLouis_Heatwave

 

Great Lakes: Earliest the ice had frozen here since the 1930s

It appears “Global Warming” can make ice freeze early too. Ha!

(NEW YORK) — In the midst of record-breaking bitter cold, the U.S. Coast Guard has been relentlessly fighting against ice buildup in the Great Lakes region in an effort to keep important shipping channels open.

“The Coast Guard said it was the earliest the ice had frozen here since the 1930s, and the river connecting Lakes Superior and Huron has been some of the toughest ice they have seen. With cutting through ice, the noise is loud and constant.”

ld_coast_guard_cutter_bristol_bay_ll_140106_16x9_608

http://www.wwgp1050.com/2014/01/07/us-coast-guard-battles-ice-to-keep-shipping-channels-open/