They Promised Me More Heatwaves

The Climate Change believers claim there will be more heatwaves.

“Global climate change is likely to be accompanied by an increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves … “

Five years ago (omg) I did a post about how the number of days over 20/25/30C isn’t increasing in my hometown on the westcoast of British Columbia.

This post uses actual days in a heatwave. Lets arbitrarily say a heatwave is consecutive days at or above a certain temperature (I’ll do 25C and 30C).

This is not perfect process because the data from Envornment Canada can be spotty.

I’m only looking at data from 1947 on (which is when a major station move occurred). And I have this caveat: If there is missing data I ignore it.

So, for 25C cutoff, 1977 had 31 days total above 25C and a 22 day stretch above 25C.

Year Days Total Longest Start End
1977 31 22 1977-07-30 1977-08-20
1971 37 20 1971-07-14 1971-08-02
1958 73 17 1958-08-09 1958-08-25
1961 62 17 1961-07-30 1961-08-15
1969 54 15 1969-07-17 1969-07-31
2015 53 15 2015-06-25 2015-07-09
2017 57 15 2017-07-28 2017-08-11
1974 51 14 1974-09-12 1974-09-25
1981 34 14 1981-08-05 1981-08-18
1972 48 13 1972-07-28 1972-08-09
1978 37 13 1978-07-28 1978-08-09
2004 52 13 2004-08-08 2004-08-20
1967 62 12 1967-08-08 1967-08-19
1968 35 12 1968-07-23 1968-08-03
1975 46 12 1975-06-30 1975-07-11
1990 43 12 1990-08-03 1990-08-14
1962 21 11 1962-07-21 1962-07-31
1985 40 11 1985-07-13 1985-07-23
1998 51 11 1998-07-20 1998-07-30
2009 46 11 2009-07-24 2009-08-03

For 30C the longest heatwave is in 1977. No other year comes close.

If you are interested this is the listof temperatures:

30.6,32.4,30.5,33.6,33.2,31.7,30.4,30.8,31.4,33.9,33.8,32.5,30.9,31.1,32.3,34.5,34.5

Year Days Total Longest  Start End
1977 18 17 1977-08-01 1977-08-17
1968 15 8 1968-07-26 1968-08-02
1974 14 8 1974-08-27 1974-09-03
2009 17 8 2009-07-26 2009-08-02
2018 19 8 2018-07-23 2018-07-30
1959 9 7 1959-07-16 1959-07-22
1962 7 7 1962-07-22 1962-07-28
1958 27 6 1958-07-23 1958-07-28
1967 18 6 1967-08-12 1967-08-17
1971 17 6 1971-07-25 1971-07-30
1981 9 6 1981-08-06 1981-08-11
2004 16 6 2004-06-17 2004-06-22
2014 17 6 2014-07-11 2014-07-16
1969 8 5 1969-06-15 1969-06-19
1972 18 5 1972-07-17 1972-07-21
1996 11 5 1996-07-23 1996-07-27
2010 7 5 2010-08-13 2010-08-17
2015 19 5 2015-07-01 2015-07-05
1950 8 4 1950-07-21 1950-07-24
1952 12 4 1952-07-08 1952-07-11

Note that 1958 clobbers the other years when it comes to days total. But they were broken up.

1977 also happens to have occurred as the Great Pacific Climate Shift started.

Where are the heatwaves they promised me?

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Toronto Airport A Little Cool This Year – Zero Days Over 30C So Far

Wow

““If Toronto’s Pearson International Airport weather station doesn’t hit 30.0ºC before the end of August — and it’s not looking like it will — this will be the first consecutive July and August that Pearson has not hit 30.0ºC+ since records began at Pearson in 1938 — that’s 76 years of data,” says Weather Network meteorologist Dayna Vettese.”

http://iceagenow.info/2014/08/summer-toronto-verge-setting-record/

 

Here is a histogram collection showing that there have been 1371 days over 30C at the airport. But 2014 could be blank.

Note that “global warming” hasn’t caused any increase in “heat waves”.

HotDay_Histogram_TORONTO LESTER B. PEARSON INTL A - Hot Day Histogram

 

XKCD and Global Warming and St Louis

XKCD is a funny geeky comic that I read quite regularly. The blog Inconvenient Skeptic has a good post about being annoyed with a recent XKCD strip that mocks people for using the recent cold days to “disprove” global warming.

Go ahead, read the blog posting (if you are still interested) and comic and then return here.

I was ticked at XKCD for the obvious reason. The mainstream media always loves to blame global warming for any warm spell but never uses cold spells to mock the concept of global warming. I guess when XKCD followed along I was disappointed.

However, beyond that point I was interested in the St Louis data linked by the blog post here. I was immediately interested in the heatwave data in this Excel spreadsheet. I’ll just show the top twenty rows.

Notice 2012 didn’t make the top of any highlighted lists. It came close.  But 1954, 1963 and 1936 had more days greater than 90F. 1936 topped consecutive days above 90F.

And 1936, 1934 and 1954 topped the list of days over 100F. And 1936 was the year with most consecutive days above 100F.

And the red circled years are the Least number of days above 90F and 100F. Notice there are recent years without any 100F days at all.

And while I didn’t highlight it, notice that in 1954 22 days were above 100F. Only 18 were in Jun/Jul/Aug. The other 4 were int the spring or fall. Now thats hot.

So much for recent “warming”. St Louis had more extreme heat in the past. Even 2012 did not set new records.

StLouis_Heatwave