UHI and Tmin Nanaimo

Yesterday I posted a WUWT article about Tmin in the UK rising 1.7C thanks to UHI.

I ive near Nanaimo BC and here is the graphs for Tmin and Tmax since 1947.

Tmax has barely changed. Tmin is up 2C or more. UHI.

Data from Weatherstats and Environment Canada

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Second Coldest February (avg) Nanaimo

It was the second coldest February in Nanaimo , BC , Canada (data from 1948) in terms of average temperature. The average was 0.05C .

The coldest was 1989 when it averaged-0.03C.

2019

1989

The warmest February was 2015 and it looked like:

Data courtesy weatherstats.ca and Environment and Climate Change Canada

Ferries and Killer Whales – Stats

Just an addendum to the post I made about Ferries and Killer Whales. The key paragraph is here.

The study stated “that ferries undoubtedly contribute a large amount of noise due to their size, the large number of monthly ferry trips, and because their routes are widely distributed throughout” the pod’s habitat. To make matters worse, B.C.’s provincial government plans to increase the number of ferry trips in B.C. coastal waters by an enormous 2,700 trips per year — or 225 more trips per month.

TMX will result in 1 extra tanker sailing per day.

BC Ferries make over 26,000 sailings a year (13,000 round trips) on the 4 major routes (which go right through the feeding grounds)

Thats works out to 71 daily trips.

And there are a grand total of 79,000 round trips (156,000 sailings) on all routes.

 

Ferries and whale-watching boats harm killer whales much more than TMX oil tankers

Good article on a subject I touched on a few days ago.

Wanna know what’s really harming B.C’s southern resident killer whale population?

Professional anti-pipeline activists will try to tell you it’s oil tanker traffic. That’s a lie.

According to the National Energy Board’s 674-page report released last week, when it comes to the noise pollution affecting the struggling pod of 74 killer whales, oil tanker traffic is responsible for just one per cent of the pod’s lost foraging time.

The most significant contributors to the noise pollution that negatively impacts the ability of the whales to hunt and feed are other commercial vehicles — mostly passenger ferries, tug boats, deep-sea fishing vehicles and in the summer, whale-watching boats, says the report which gave the green light to the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion.

So much for the moniker eco-tourism. Those of us who pay to get close to these magnificent creatures may actually be killing them with our love.

According to the NEB report, the Department of Fisheries and Oceans said that commercial whale watching in the Canadian and U.S. portions of the Salish Sea increased from a few boats in the 1970s to about 100 boats in 2016.

The NEB refers to a 2017 report in the scientific journal Nature, called Evaluating Anthropogenic Threats to Endangered Killer Whales. It states that “from the perspective of a foraging killer whale that emits high-frequency (18-32 kHz) echolocation clicks to detect and capture salmon, high-frequency noise from small, outboard vessels that follow whales might cause a greater reduction in a killer whale’s foraging success than low-frequency (<1 kHz) background noise from commercial shipping.”

These endangered whales are being chased virtually every moment of daylight from May to September. Is it any wonder they’re losing weight and are having troubles catching their food — something they do by using sound waves? If people want to watch whales, they should go out in sailboats or kayaks.

The NEB refers to another report that says the foraging time for the orca pod as a result of noise is reduced by up to 5.5 hours per day. B.C. Ferries account for 52 to 67 per cent of lost foraging time due to noise and tug boats account for 12 to 27 per cent. And, oil tankers make up just one per cent of that lost foraging time.

The study stated “that ferries undoubtedly contribute a large amount of noise due to their size, the large number of monthly ferry trips, and because their routes are widely distributed throughout” the pod’s habitat. To make matters worse, B.C.’s provincial government plans to increase the number of ferry trips in B.C. coastal waters by an enormous 2,700 trips per year — or 225 more trips per month.

Meanwhile, the number of added tanker trips caused by the proposed expansion of Trans Mountain Pipeline is just 29 more ships per month for a total of 35 per month, or about one per day.

So there you have it. Tourism isn’t so green after all. It contributes significant greenhouse gases and makes hunting, for at least this one pod of killer whales, very difficult.

An aerial view of the Trans Mountain marine terminal in Burnaby on May 29, 2018. JONATHAN HAYWARD /THE CANADIAN PRESS

Despite what you have already read about the Trans Mountain pipeline causing “significant” problems for the endangered killer whale pod in question — something that critics are already saying — that is not what experts actually say.

What the NEB report actually says is this: “While the effects from Project-related marine shipping will be a small fraction of the total cumulative effects, and the level of traffic is expected to increase with or without the Project, the increase in marine vessels associated with the Project would further contribute to cumulative effects that are already jeopardizing the recovery of SRKW (southern resident killer whales.)”

Resident Killer Whales in BC and Transmountain Pipeline

One of the arguments used against the twinning of the Transmountain (TMX) pipeline in BC is that it threatens Southern Resident Killer Whales (SRKW) with more ship noise. I have my doubts about ship noise being the problem since Orcas (non-SRKW ) are doing ok elsewhere.

The SRKW  are a small pod (79?) and are not doing well at all and may go extinct. But they may have reached an evolutionary dead end because they eat fish unlike other Orcas that eat seals etc. And humans are eating the fish.

Resident orcas [SRKW ] eat exclusively fish with salmon (primarily Chinook) the majority of their diet. Transient orcas prefer to eat other marine mammals like seals, sea lions, and other whales.”

The TMX expansion will result in about 400 addition ship movements per year through the are the Residents feed. About 1 per day. That 400 is a small number compared to all ship movements in the region, but usually the numbers are only mentioned for tankers.

The National Energy Board released a report with recomendations like:

“Trans Mountain must file with the NEB, at least 3 months prior to commencing operations, a Marine Mammal Protection Program that focuses on mitigating effects from the Project and associated cumulative effects, and on fulfilling Trans Mountain’s commitments as a terminal operator with regard to Project-related marine shipping.”

I think there are something 23,000+ ships movements per year in the SRKW territory.

Pretty much the day after the report came out, the current NDP (socialist) government (and their Green allies)  announced that they were expanding ferry sailings by  2,700 sailings, many of which are in the SRKW territory.

Amazing.

On top of that, the NEB report had this gem:

“Based on its 2016 analysis, Vancouver Fraser Port Authority forecasts the number of vessel calls to the Port of Vancouver may increase to about 12 ships per day by 2026.”

The big green machine are pulling out the stops. I don’t doubt that a few of them care about the SRKW. But for the most part it is all part of the plan to kill the oilsands in Alberta.

A very interesting blog post on the same subject.

 

 

 

A Little Natural Gas Math For British Columbians

Natural gas seems to be the target of the new Clean BC plan concocted by the NDP and Greens.

I wondered what would happen if BC got rid of natural gas for heating and industrial use.

I was inspired by a graph in this article.

BC consumes about .75 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day (2017). Thats about 8% of Canada’s NG consumption.

750,000,000cf = 219.8GWh per day of electricity according to this site.

That is 80,227GWh per year.

Site C, a very “constroversial” hydro dam in BC, will produce 5,100GWh.

That means BC needs to build 15.73 (lets round to 16) Site C dams just to eliminate natural gas consumption. And that ignores the fact that peak consumption might be a lot more. And I don’t have peak consumption data. It would be alot higher.

As I said, a graph inspired me. It shows the same idea for the UK. And the red is heat demand for UK. I don’t think it includes industrial demand.

image

 

They Promised Me More Heatwaves

The Climate Change believers claim there will be more heatwaves.

“Global climate change is likely to be accompanied by an increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves … “

Five years ago (omg) I did a post about how the number of days over 20/25/30C isn’t increasing in my hometown on the westcoast of British Columbia.

This post uses actual days in a heatwave. Lets arbitrarily say a heatwave is consecutive days at or above a certain temperature (I’ll do 25C and 30C).

This is not perfect process because the data from Envornment Canada can be spotty.

I’m only looking at data from 1947 on (which is when a major station move occurred). And I have this caveat: If there is missing data I ignore it.

So, for 25C cutoff, 1977 had 31 days total above 25C and a 22 day stretch above 25C.

Year Days Total Longest Start End
1977 31 22 1977-07-30 1977-08-20
1971 37 20 1971-07-14 1971-08-02
1958 73 17 1958-08-09 1958-08-25
1961 62 17 1961-07-30 1961-08-15
1969 54 15 1969-07-17 1969-07-31
2015 53 15 2015-06-25 2015-07-09
2017 57 15 2017-07-28 2017-08-11
1974 51 14 1974-09-12 1974-09-25
1981 34 14 1981-08-05 1981-08-18
1972 48 13 1972-07-28 1972-08-09
1978 37 13 1978-07-28 1978-08-09
2004 52 13 2004-08-08 2004-08-20
1967 62 12 1967-08-08 1967-08-19
1968 35 12 1968-07-23 1968-08-03
1975 46 12 1975-06-30 1975-07-11
1990 43 12 1990-08-03 1990-08-14
1962 21 11 1962-07-21 1962-07-31
1985 40 11 1985-07-13 1985-07-23
1998 51 11 1998-07-20 1998-07-30
2009 46 11 2009-07-24 2009-08-03

For 30C the longest heatwave is in 1977. No other year comes close.

If you are interested this is the listof temperatures:

30.6,32.4,30.5,33.6,33.2,31.7,30.4,30.8,31.4,33.9,33.8,32.5,30.9,31.1,32.3,34.5,34.5

Year Days Total Longest  Start End
1977 18 17 1977-08-01 1977-08-17
1968 15 8 1968-07-26 1968-08-02
1974 14 8 1974-08-27 1974-09-03
2009 17 8 2009-07-26 2009-08-02
2018 19 8 2018-07-23 2018-07-30
1959 9 7 1959-07-16 1959-07-22
1962 7 7 1962-07-22 1962-07-28
1958 27 6 1958-07-23 1958-07-28
1967 18 6 1967-08-12 1967-08-17
1971 17 6 1971-07-25 1971-07-30
1981 9 6 1981-08-06 1981-08-11
2004 16 6 2004-06-17 2004-06-22
2014 17 6 2014-07-11 2014-07-16
1969 8 5 1969-06-15 1969-06-19
1972 18 5 1972-07-17 1972-07-21
1996 11 5 1996-07-23 1996-07-27
2010 7 5 2010-08-13 2010-08-17
2015 19 5 2015-07-01 2015-07-05
1950 8 4 1950-07-21 1950-07-24
1952 12 4 1952-07-08 1952-07-11

Note that 1958 clobbers the other years when it comes to days total. But they were broken up.

1977 also happens to have occurred as the Great Pacific Climate Shift started.

Where are the heatwaves they promised me?