Tag: climate

Impact of more Antarctic Sea Ice

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What is the impact of more Antarctic Sea Ice? Many warmists claim that less Arctic Sea Ice will have a more dramatic effect on earth’s albedo than increasing Antarctic Sea Ice.

Poster RACookPE1978 at WUWT disagrees and I hope he does not mind me reblogging  his comment here.

“The Antarctic Sea Ice at its 16.5 million km^2 maximum near the equinox in mid-September is a near crown-shape: A circular ring whose edge is between 62 south and 60 south latitude. During its mid-winter GROWTH range – that period BEFORE its maximum extent when its will reflect the most solar energy – it will have about 50% of its area between 66.5 south (the Antarctic Circle) and 60 south latitude.

Now, at that latitude, EVEN AT MID NH SUMMER (darkest time of the year for the Antarctic continent in mid-winter) the Antarctic sea ice WILL be reflecting light energy … for the simple reason that the Antarctic sea ice is exposed to southern hemisphere sunlight every day – even at the shortest day if the winter at June 22.

BUT … Antarctic Sea Ice is NOT at its maximum at mid-winter (the darkest days), but rather, Antarctic Sea Ice is at its maximum at the equinox when there IS sunlight for 12 hours per every latitude on the planet. Further, Antarctic Sea Ice at its maximum IS exposed to strongly absorbed sunlight at solar incidence angle between 15 and 30 degrees for 10 of those 12 hours. Worse, from a cooling world standpoint, a DECREASE in Arctic Sea ice from its present “circular cap” up between 81 north latitude and the pole DOES NOT result in increased solar absorption into the exposed sea surface, but rather an increased LOSS of heat energy from the exposed water due to evaporation and radiation.

The difference? The angle of the incidence sunlight. In the Antarctic, the light is inbound on the newly freezing sea ice at 30 degrees angle: At 30-25 degrees incidence angle, open water absorbs 90-95% of the inbound energy, sea ice reflects about 98 percent of the incident energy.

in the Arctic, at 4-8 degrees incidence angle, open (rough) water reflects 95% of the solar energy. Ice reflects about 98% of the incoming solar energy. Open water loses another 117 watts/m^2 compared to ice-covered water.

Thus, “simple” physics and geography shows that an increase in Antarctic Sea by 1.5 million km^2 ABOVE its previous “average” of 15.0 million km^2 SIGNIFICANTLY increases heat loss from the planet. An (potential) loss even of the entire remaining sea ice of 3.4 million km^2 increases heat loss from the planet.

And NO IPCC report nor ANY climate model predicts ANY increase in Antarctic sea ice at the same time as a Arctic Sea Ice decline. They only predict sea ice declines due to “a warming world” and “prove” a warming world by that same sea ice decline.”

 

HADSST2 Southern Hemisphere Aug 2012 – Cooling For 15 Years

Published on by sunshinehours14 Comments

Using data from the Climate Research Unit of the UEA , it appears sea surface temperatures may explain Antarctic Sea Ice at record levels.

SST in the southern hemisphere have a cooling trend of -0.068C / decade.over the last 15 years.

Save The Coal – Burn a Forest!

Published on by sunshinehours17 Comments

“Drax Group Plc (DRX) will spend $1 billion to turn the U.K.’s biggest coal-fired plant into western Europe’s largest clean- energy producer. The utility plans to convert one of the site’s six units to burn wood pellets by June, said Chief Executive Officer Dorothy Thompson. It intends to switch two more units to wood at a later date, investments that if completed will see it harvest a forest four times the size of Rhode Island each year“

“While burning biomass releases carbon dioxide, the EU deems the technology carbon-neutral because trees absorb emissions in a similar proportion to what they release in burning. Opponents argue that it’s hard to ensure enough is being planted to compensate for what is burned.”

Opponents? By opponents do they mean sane people? Or do they mean greenies who are slightly less insane than the average greenie?

“Wood pellets are bulkier than coal, need to be kept dry and handled more gently. They can create dust if stored in the open. To deal with this, Drax is building silos out of plastics, foam, steel and concrete, with conveyor floors and capable of holding 700,000 metric tons of biomass.”

This is great … all those jobs and all that plastic and foam and steel and concrete (did you know concrete produces a lot of CO2?)

Green policies are saving the poor unfortunate coal and killing off four forests the size of Rhode Island (which is actually quite small but it sounds scary).

I like trees. I have no objection to trees being cut down to provide useful things like houses and paper.

But to burn vast quantities of trees and to build up a huge new infrastructure to burn wood instead of burning coal (or preferably natural gas) is insane. But thats what green policies do. They distort the market. They rewards people for doing insane things … like burning forests instead of coal or building wind turbines (and backup power plants) instead of reliable natural gas power plants.

Imagine … power plants burning forests will act as the backup power for unreliable wind turbines!

 

 

British Columbia cooling at -0.501C per decade for last 15 years

Published on by sunshinehours16 Comments

British Columbia, Canada (BC)  is north of Washington/Idaho/Montana.

I download monthly data from the Environment Canada (EC) websites. EC treats some stations as special and calculates anomalies against what they call Normals. As of today the Normals are calculated for 1971-2000 and I am using those special stations. This data is in anomalies in Celsius, not Fahrenheit. Here, for example, is data for all of Canada for Aug 2012 (I am just looking at BC today).

British Columbia has been cooling at -0.501C per decade for last 15 years.

Click on the graph for full size.

Another way to look at the data is to calculate 5 year means going backwards from the most recent data.

The most recent 5 year period in BC is -0.01C colder than the 1971 – 2000 Normals.

More importantly it is .79C colder than the previous 5 year period. That also puts the last 5 years colder than ~1925-1930, and colder than ~1940 and the same temperature as ~1960 and ~ 1990.

 

Killing Sea Urchins To Make Money Carbon Trading

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A pair of biologists have a plan to make hundreds of millions of dollar trading carbon credits in Europe.

“”An alluring idea,” they write, would be to sell the carbon indirectly sequestered by the sea otter protected kelp forest “as a way to pay for their reintroduction and management or to compensate losses to shell fisheries from sea otter predation.””

“They estimate that the CO2 removed from the atmosphere via the otter-kelp link could be worth between $205 million and $408 million on the European Carbon Exchange.”

How are they going to do this? By increasing the number of sea otters so the otters eat a lot more sea urchins and therefore the sea urchins won’t eat as much kelp. Sure, otters are cute. But why are the biologists taking sides?

To make a lot of money.

Notice the loaded language in the article:

” ravenous sea urchins”

” sea urchins graze voraciously on living kelp” !!!

Living kelp? Does anyone ever attack cows for “grazing voraciously on living grass”?

You can see how climate change and carbon credits have corrupted the thinking of those poor biologists who are now choosing sides to make big money.

NOAA July 2012 – Lowest Precipitation per Month by State / Region

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This is a table of the lowest precipitation for each month using NOAA data (regional data at bottom) using data up to July 2012.

Blue are records set in the last 12 months. Yellow are records set before 2000.

No state recorded a low precipitation for July 2012.

State Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Alabama 1927 1947 1918 1915 1941 1902 1983 1925 1984 1963 1924 1980
Arizona 1972 1972 1959 1989 2002 1951 1993 1962 1953 1952 1999 1917
Arkansas 1986 1895 1966 1987 1911 1952 1930 2000 2004 1963 1949 2005
California 1984 1964 1956 1909 2001 1901 1940 2002 1974 1995 1929 1989
Colorado 1931 1954 2012 2002 1974 1924 1939 1960 1956 1952 1904 1976
Connecticut 1970 1987 1915 1942 1903 1949 1968 1981 1914 1924 1976 1955
Delaware 1981 2012 2006 1985 1964 1988 1974 2008 1941 1963 1917 1988
Florida 1950 1911 2006 1967 1927 1931 1932 1938 1921 2010 1931 1933
Georgia 1927 1898 2004 1915 2007 1990 1980 1925 2005 1963 1931 1955
Idaho 1985 1920 1965 1977 1924 1919 1953 1940 1987 1978 1936 1986
Illinois 1986 1947 1910 1971 1934 1988 1930 1953 1979 1964 1904 1976
Indiana 1981 1947 1910 1962 1934 1988 1901 1897 1897 1908 1904 1958
Iowa 1981 1970 1994 1926 1934 1933 1936 1984 1939 1952 1976 2002
Kansas 1986 2006 1936 1989 1966 1911 1935 1913 1956 1952 1989 1976
Kentucky 1981 1947 1910 1915 1941 1936 1930 1925 1897 1963 1976 1965
Louisiana 2003 2000 1910 1965 1998 1936 1924 1980 1953 1952 1903 1958
Maine 1970 1987 1915 1966 1903 1913 1952 2002 1948 1947 1939 1943
Maryland 1981 2009 2006 1985 1964 1988 1983 1930 1941 1963 1917 1955
Massachusetts 1955 1987 1915 1999 1903 1912 1968 1907 1914 1924 1917 1943
Michigan 1961 1987 1910 1946 1925 1988 1936 1930 1979 1924 1904 1913
Minnesota 1931 1968 1910 1987 1900 1910 1936 1930 1952 1952 1939 1913
Mississippi 1914 1947 1910 1915 1951 1930 1924 1954 1897 1963 1924 1896
Missouri 1986 1947 1910 2000 1911 1933 1930 1909 1897 1964 1904 1955
Montana 1944 2005 1926 1977 1937 1919 1917 2001 1990 1987 1939 1913
Nebraska 1986 1996 1994 1928 1966 1933 1936 1947 1899 1933 1939 1905
Nevada 1919 1896 1956 2008 1924 1974 1963 1944 1922 1952 1929 1976
New Hampshire 1981 1987 1915 1941 1903 1913 1955 1996 1914 1924 1939 1943
New Jersey 1981 2009 2006 1963 1903 1949 1955 1964 1941 1924 1917 1955
New Mexico 1928 1999 1956 1972 1998 2011 2003 1962 1956 1952 1945 1950
New York 1981 1987 1915 2001 1903 1912 1983 1907 1964 1963 1904 1943
North Carolina 1907 1968 2006 1976 1936 1990 1983 1997 1990 2000 1922 1965
North Dakota 1973 1934 1930 1987 1901 1974 1936 1961 1897 1952 1939 1944
Ohio 1981 1978 1910 1971 1934 1988 1930 1951 1908 1924 1904 1955
Oklahoma 1986 1996 1971 1989 1988 1933 1980 2000 1956 1952 1910 1950
Oregon 1985 1920 1965 1939 1924 2003 1953 1955 1999 1895 1936 1976
Pennsylvania 1981 1968 1910 1946 1903 1966 1909 1930 1943 1963 1917 1955
Rhode Island 1955 1987 1915 1942 1939 1949 1952 1984 1941 1946 1917 1955
South Carolina 1907 1947 2004 1986 1941 1905 1980 1925 2005 2000 1931 1955
South Dakota 1942 1985 1926 1926 1924 1936 1936 2001 1952 1952 1939 1986
Tennessee 1986 1941 1910 1915 1941 1988 1902 1953 1897 1963 1917 1965
Texas 1971 1916 1971 1984 1998 1933 2000 2000 1931 1952 1949 1917
Utah 1919 1964 1956 1977 1972 1935 1900 1985 1979 1952 1904 1976
Vermont 1981 1987 1915 1941 1903 1995 1959 1957 1908 1963 1939 1943
Virginia 1981 1968 2006 1942 1911 1986 1983 1930 2005 2000 2001 1965
Washington 1985 1920 1965 1956 1924 1922 1960 1967 1975 1987 1936 1985
West Virginia 1981 1968 1910 1900 1911 1988 1930 1957 1985 1963 1904 1965
Wisconsin 1981 1958 1910 1946 1925 1910 1936 1930 1952 1952 1904 1943
Wyoming 1961 1970 2004 1987 1934 2012 2003 1944 1979 1952 1939 1986
Northeast Region 1981 1987 1915 1896 1903 1988 1968 1957 1914 1924 1917 1955
East North CentralRegion 1961 1987 1910 1946 1934 1910 1936 1930 1952 1952 1904 1943
Central Region 1981 1947 1910 1915 1934 1988 1930 1953 1897 1963 1904 1958
Southeast Region 1927 1898 2006 1986 1941 1931 1983 1930 1919 1963 1931 1955
West North Central Region 1961 1973 1994 1926 1934 1933 1917 1967 1952 1952 1939 1905
South Region 1914 1916 1966 1987 1998 1933 1980 2000 1956 1952 1949 1917
Southwest Region 2003 1972 1956 1989 1974 2012 2003 1962 1956 1952 1904 1976
Northwest Region 1985 1920 1965 1977 1924 1919 1953 1967 1975 1987 1936 1976
West Region 1984 1964 1956 1909 1924 1935 1963 1956 1974 1995 1929 1989
USA Contiguous 48 States 1981 1947 1910 1987 1934 1933 1930 1929 1956 1952 1917 1958

BEST minus NOAA – WOW – BEST has cooled the pre-1960 data and warmed the post-1960 data for Alabama

Published on by sunshinehours14 Comments

I thought I would compare TAVG data from the new BEST release to the NOAA data for the state of Alabama.

I got the BEST data here. I got the NOAA data here. The BEST anomalies are as of 1951 to 1980. So I calculated the NOAA anomalies for Alabama using the same time frame. Then I convert NOAA anomalies from Fahrenheit to Celsius.

So, for example, 1950 and 2010 (temperatures are anomalies from the 1951-1980 average):

Year Month NOAA_F NOAA_C BEST_C BEST minus NOAA
661 1950.00 1.00 16.00 8.89 6.83 -2.06
665 1950.00 2.00 7.00 3.89 2.70 -1.19
666 1950.00 3.00 -1.30 -0.72 -1.05 -0.33
667 1950.00 4.00 -3.50 -1.94 -1.77 0.17
668 1950.00 5.00 3.80 2.11 1.51 -0.60
669 1950.00 6.00 1.30 0.72 0.39 -0.34
670 1950.00 7.00 -1.50 -0.83 -1.10 -0.27
671 1950.00 8.00 -1.40 -0.78 -0.99 -0.21
672 1950.00 9.00 -1.60 -0.89 -0.81 0.07
662 1950.00 10.00 3.60 2.00 1.33 -0.67
663 1950.00 11.00 -3.70 -2.06 -2.32 -0.27
664 1950.00 12.00 -4.40 -2.44 -2.48 -0.03
1381 2010.00 1.00 -4.50 -2.50 -2.54 -0.04
1385 2010.00 2.00 -7.30 -4.06 -4.13 -0.08
1386 2010.00 3.00 -3.60 -2.00 -1.59 0.41
1387 2010.00 4.00 0.70 0.39 1.28 0.89
1388 2010.00 5.00 2.80 1.56 1.77 0.22
1389 2010.00 6.00 3.80 2.11 2.52 0.41
1390 2010.00 7.00 3.00 1.67 1.82 0.15
1391 2010.00 8.00 4.10 2.28 2.51 0.23
1392 2010.00 9.00 2.80 1.56 2.15 0.59
1382 2010.00 10.00 1.30 0.72 0.65 -0.07
1383 2010.00 11.00 2.30 1.28 1.44 0.16
1384 2010.00 12.00 -6.40 -3.56 -2.98 0.58

Hmmm. They don’t look too similar. So I double checked. 16 for Jan 1950? Yes, Jan 1950 was the warmest January in Alabama history according to the NOAA. It averaged 60F, which is 16F above the 1951-1980 average.

So, lets graph BEST minus NOAA_C. Whaaatttt! No wonder BEST can claim warming occurred after 1960.

They cooled all the pre-1960 data and warmed all the post-1960 data (compared to NOAA)!!

UK Sunshine Hours versus Tmax

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You can download climate data from the UK Met here.

If you graph the difference between the median sunshine hours against the difference  between the median maximum temperature (Tmax) you see sunshine on the rise and tmax on the rise.

Don’t forget to ask the AGW side whether climate variables other than CO2 have changed recently.