Sea Ice Extent (Global Antarctic and Arctic) – Day 277 – 2017

 

2017 is on track for the lowest Antarctic maximum. But there is a bit of a late surge.

It is unlikely that another 79,000 sq km of ice will appear. But you never know.

 

South / North

Antarctic Ozone Depletion Caused By Volcano

Erebus Volcano and Ozone Depletion

“Erebus volcano eruptions are of the Strombolian type, which volcanic ejecta and gases are known to reach heights of 1–2 km above the volcano summit and, therefore, cannot directly reach the stratosphere (Boichu et al., 2010, 2011; Dibble et al., 2008). However, according to aircraft observations in 1989 at a height of 8 km over Antarctica, the detected aerosol particles were identified as volcanic ejecta of Erebus (Chuan, 1994). Together with HCl and H2SO4 high concentrations in the Antarctic stratosphere, it is indicative of delivery mechanisms of Erebus volcanic gases into the Antarctic stratosphere.

Erebus volcano gas emissions can ascend to the Antarctic stratosphere via high-latitude cyclones which are coupled to the stratospheric polar vortex in cold seasons.”

“Thus, for more than 40 years, Erebus volcano, which activity restarted in 1972, has been a natural source of chemical species destroying the Antarctic ozone. The extremely high Erebus volcanic activity in the early 1980s definitely made a major contribution to the increase of the ozone hole along with man-made chlorofluorocarbons. Regular observations of Erebus volcano gas emissions can help to predict the total ozone content dynamics and, therefore, the ozone hole area.”

 

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231015304246

Antarctica – Return to mid-70s conditions?

Cycles.

After 40 years, a large ice-free area appears again in the Southern Ocean in mid-winter

US-American scientists have calculated that the Weddell Polynya would probably not occur again because of climate change.

Higher precipitation levels in the region and melting ice would decouple the surface from the deeper water layers.

However, in several studies applying the “Kiel Climate Model” and other computer models, the research group in Kiel described the polynya as part of long-term natural variability, which would occur again sooner or later. “The fact that now a large, ice-free area can be observed in the Weddell Sea confirms our theory and gives us another data point for further model studies,” says Dr. Martin.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/09/170929093337.htm

 

South / North

Sea Ice Extent (Global Antarctic and Arctic) – Day 271 – 2017

I haven’t called the Antarctic maximum yet because it isn’t unusual for the day of max to be later than 271.

Plus there is a bit of a surge going on.

However, if things don’t change it would be the lowest maximum by about 40,000 sq km. (which occurred in 1986).

South / North

The New Coal – Burning wood pellets creates more global warming pollution than coal, not less

The new coal. More CO2 than coal. Yet biomass is called green by the AGW cult and the Eu and the other cult leaders .

“A controversy with reverberations across the Atlantic Ocean is brewing in Hamlet, North Carolina – a literal hamlet 120 miles northwest of Wilmington – where a new wood-pellet facility is already in the initial stages of construction.

The mill would become the fourth in North Carolina and the seventh in the Southeast built and operated by Maryland-based Enviva, the largest producer of wood pellets in the world.

The dried and compressed bits of wood produced at the plant would be shipped from Wilmington to a power company in the United Kingdom, who plans to burn them instead of coal as part of the country’s effort to slash greenhouse gas emissions 20 percent by the end of the decade.

The problem, according to many energy analysts, is that burning pellets creates more global warming pollution than coal, not less. One prominent research ecologist even calls wood biomass “the new coal.”

At the same time, environmental advocates say the new mill will further the destruction of deciduous forests in the Southeast – especially in wetlands – and disproportionately harm public health in Dobbins Heights, an overwhelmingly African-American town two miles northeast of the facility.”

“A 2015 analysis for the Southern Environmental Law Center examining the loss of forests found that Enviva wood pellets supplied to Drax would create two and a half times more greenhouse gas emissions than coal over 40 years.

A 2014 study by the U.K.’s environmental agency also factored in drying and transportation costs; it found climate pollution from southeastern U.S. wood pellets to be three times that of coal.”

 

 

PDO AMO Arctic Antarctic

The graphs start from 1950 to show a full 66 year cycle of the PDO and AMO.

I’m graphing anomalies from the mean for all. Sea Ice is in millions of sq km.

PDO versus Arctic Extent  – note that the satellite record for sea ice starts at peak of PDO

AMO versus Antarctic Extent

Everything

Arctic Recovers – 2017 is 8th Lowest Arctic Minimum

If things hold (and 110,000 sq km of ice would have to melt), day 255 (five days ago) will be the day of Arctic minimum for 2017.

That would still be only the 8th lowest.

South / North