If I was an alarmists I would suggest that at the current rate of increase, by 2100 Antarctica will be completely inaccessible by ship.
But I’m not. I do wonder if the the spike in 1979 is an artifact of the satellite at that time, or if it is where we are now (remember the area to the left of 1979 just wasn’t recorded so we don’t know what it really looks like) and once the AMO cools Antarctica Sea Ice Extent will shrink and the Arctic will grow.
UPDATE: I am adding the following means:
1936 raw / tobs / final mean = 101.47 / 100.83 / 100.32
2012 raw / tobs/ final mean = 99.57 / 99.66 / 99.48
Original Start of post:
I’ve been doing posts about USCHN and Estimated data. I wanted to visualize.
This is the USHCN July 1936 and 2012 TMAX data for Kansas.
Form the most part, in July 1936 the red data (Final) is colder than the raw temperatures (black) and in 2012 it is the other way around.
The data is in F (originally in C so there may be very slight conversion issues).
Black temperatures are raw, blue are TOBS and red are Final adjusted. Stations with just a red have no raw data. The data is just ‘E’stimated.
Click for full size.
I’ve been posting on USHCN and the effect of “estimating” or “Infilling” on the Final data.
Earlier today I showed that Estimating/Infilling made the 1980-2014 trend steeper upwards.
Now I will show the opposite: When the trend is down, infilling makes the trend steeper downwards.
I repeat … this is the Final data after all the other adjustments. About 15% of the data is Estimated from neighboring stations.
I will post all the monthly graphs … but just discuss the first – January.
The data is 1945 to 1980. So it covers a period of cooling.
The trend of REAL data is –0.58C/decade. That’s the 39,766 values referenced in the legend.
Then they add in about 15% Estimated data with a trend of -0.79C/decade. That’s the 3987 values.
The net result is a new trend of -0.61C/decade.
Presto. Magic. A -0.58C trend is now a -0.61C trend.
Not a big change. But it is always there. But the red line is almost always well above the others. Sometimes by 2C.
(Click on graphs for larger).
I’ve been posting on USHCN and the effect of “estimating” or “Infilling” on the Final data. I did Arizona earlier.
I repeat … this is the Final data after all the other adjustments. About 15% of the data is Estimated from neighboring stations.
I will post all the monthly graphs … but just discuss the first – January.
The data is 1980 to 2014. So it has the 1980-1990 warming trend in it.
The trend of REAL data is 0.23C/decade. That’s the 35,854 values referenced in the legend.
Then they add in about 15% Estimated data with a trend of +0.66C/decade. That’s the 4516 values.
The net result is a new trend of +0.33C/decade.
Presto. Magic. A .23C trend is now a .33C trend. (Click on graphs for larger).
Update: I added a few other states
I’ve been doing posts about USCHN and Estimated data. I wanted to visualize.
This is the USHCN May 2014 TMAX data for Illinois.
The data is in F (originally in C so there may be very slight conversion issues).
Black temperatures are raw, blue are TOBS and red are Final adjusted. Stations with just a red have no raw data. The data is just ‘E’stimated.
Click for full size.
A few other states:
What a shame.
The Shiloh IV Wind Project LLC, 60 miles east of San Francisco, will receive a special permit allowing up to five golden eagles to be accidentally killed over five years. Previously, such a violation could potentially draw criminal charges and discourage private investment in wind farms known for catching birds in their rotors.
It’s not an accident.
“Michael Hutchins of the American Bird Conservancy said he believes the five-year permit for the California wind farm is reasonable … ”
He should resign in shame.
“An Associated Press investigation in 2013 found that the Obama administration has charged oil companies for drowning birds in their waste pits, and power companies for electrocuting birds on power lines, but it has taken little if any action against wind-energy companies, shielding them from liability.”
A quick update for sea ice extent for day 178 of 2014
NOAA Data here and here here. Graphs below. Click for bigger.
UPDATE: I got a request for a histogram by Decade for the differences. I have attached them at the bottom.
A few days ago I did a post about the USHCN data changing every day. I focused on one month of one year,
So this is a stats update. From Jun 21 2014 to Jun 22 2014 the TAVG data had 22,996 temperature values changed (out of 138136)
The changes were spread out through the years. And the change was predominantly to warm the data.
This is a histogram of the Year.
This is a histogram of the change. (The right side of 0 says the data got warmer)
A quick update for sea ice extent for day 176 of 2014
NOAA Data here and here here. Graphs below. Click for bigger.
June 26 2014 MASIE Update – After a week of big melt, a one day unmelt. (Data here)
| Region | Start | End | Last88 | Last28 | Last14 | Last7 | Last3 | Last1 |
| Hudson Bay | 1,260,903 | 914,911 | -345,992 | -315,160 | -255,235 | -226,752 | -142,208 | -1,874 |
| Baffin Bay Gulf of St. Lawrence | 1,688,530 | 713,609 | -974,922 | -398,793 | -190,431 | -127,501 | -86,078 | 14,372 |
| Barents Sea | 645,917 | 197,320 | -448,597 | -242,870 | -74,119 | -84,660 | 24,228 | 26,384 |
| Greenland Sea | 603,416 | 573,394 | -30,022 | -80,812 | -53,118 | -72,180 | -51,166 | 22,530 |
| Chukchi Sea | 966,006 | 754,956 | -211,050 | -173,488 | -109,672 | -70,456 | -26,210 | 6,477 |
| Beaufort Sea | 1,070,445 | 947,843 | -122,602 | -118,262 | -87,326 | -67,417 | -24,142 | -3,417 |
| Laptev Sea | 897,845 | 659,614 | -238,231 | -166,966 | -25,600 | -41,957 | -30,884 | -14,793 |
| Canadian Archipelago | 853,214 | 756,012 | -97,202 | -58,464 | -30,644 | -26,186 | -7,726 | -2,185 |
| Bering Sea | 697,324 | 27,938 | -669,385 | -80,948 | -49,091 | -23,549 | -8,879 | -4,817 |
| Sea of Okhotsk | 853,240 | 32 | -853,208 | -71,193 | -22,011 | -16,241 | 0 | 0 |
| Central Arctic | 3,221,921 | 3,239,458 | 17,537 | -2,233 | -2,240 | -2,837 | -2,561 | -3,349 |
| East Siberian Sea | 1,087,137 | 1,032,748 | -54,389 | 5,487 | 20,213 | -1,725 | -13,390 | -2,186 |
| Baltic Sea | 15,337 | 0 | -15,337 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yellow Sea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kara Sea | 933,859 | 870,981 | -62,878 | -7,856 | 30,044 | 20,909 | 15,870 | 9,160 |
| Northern Hemisphere (Total) | 14,805,115 | 10,690,343 | -4,114,771 | -1,711,510 | -849,231 | -740,551 | -353,146 | 46,301 |
| NH (Average Loss per Day) | -46,233 | -61,125 | -60,659 | -105,793 | -117,715 | 46,301 |
sunshine hours 
