USA – Page 10 – sunshine hours

USHCN 2.5 – 1998 Keeps Getting Warmer

Published on June 21, 2014June 21, 2014 by sunshinehours11 Comment

This is another post on USHCN warming. You can read more here.

USHCN puts out a monthly dataset every day. For the last month or so I was using the data I downloaded on on 20140509. I have been using the Final tavg data.

Today I downloaded the 20140621 version from here: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/v2.5

I thought … why not map both sets and compare the average temperature for the USA in Jan 1998 between the two sets of data.

In the legend I placed the count of Real versus Estimated and the average.

I was shocked. They are still warming 1998!

On May 9 the mean of the Estimated data was 2.5C and the mean of the Real Data was 1.74 … which is a .76C spread.

On June 21 the mean of the Estimated data was 2.72C and the mean of the Real Data was 1.7 … which is a 1.02C spread.

OMG. They keep changing the data. And they are still warming 1998!!!

USA NOAA First 5 Months (Jan-May) Were Only Ranked 56 out of 120

Published on June 12, 2014 by sunshinehours11 Comment

According to the NOAA the first 5 months (Jan-May) 2014 was ranked 56th out of 120 (120 = warmest) .

The cooling trend for Jan-May dates back to 1990. 2012 was the hot aberration.

These are the anomalies from the Jan-May average. It has been a cold start to the year for the East while warmer in the south west.

USHCN 2.5 – Estimated Warming By Year and Month

Published on June 11, 2014June 11, 2014 by sunshinehours11 Comment

This is the 3rd or 4th post on USHCN warming. You can read more here.

Today I have taken the Final data from 1895 to 2013 and am comparing the average for each month Estimated to Real in Celsius.

As you can see, in all cases the Estimated data is warmer. What a shock! (Not really).

Month	Estimated	Real	Estimated minus Real
Jan	0.17	-1.02	1.19
Feb	1.95	0.8	1.15
Mar	6.39	5.42	0.97
Apr	11.53	10.85	0.68
May	16.45	15.96	0.49
Jun	21.05	20.54	0.51
Jul	23.61	23.21	0.4
Aug	22.86	22.37	0.49
Sep	18.94	18.42	0.52
Oct	12.97	12.45	0.52
Nov	6.5	5.82	0.68
Dec	1.5	0.54	0.96

The next table is just the difference for each year and month. If Estimated is larger than Real, then the color will be red, otherwise blue. If the difference is more than 1 or -1, then bold will emphasize.

Red means the Estimated data is hotter than the non-estimated for that year and month.

Blue is much rarer than red. And bold blue is very rare indeed.

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
1895	0.12	-0.29	0.04	0.06	-0.38	0.22	-0.2	-0.21	-0.31	0.09	0.26	0.67
1896	0.78	0.9	1.08	1.21	0.84	0.54	0.15	0.29	0.39	0.43	0.4	0.1
1897	-0.24	0.48	0.66	0.23	-0.14	-0.07	0.03	-0.11	0.44	-0.11	-0.19	0.9
1898	-0.27	0.16	-0.24	0.16	-0.41	-0.05	0	0.23	0.03	-0.82	-0.93	-0.35
1899	0.17	-0.03	0.39	-0.37	-0.33	-0.54	-0.28	-0.23	0.14	-0.47	0.18	0.26
1900	0.89	0.97	1.35	0.56	-0.35	-0.05	-0.11	-0.22	-0.34	-0.74	-0.23	0.48
1901	1.57	1.74	1.16	0.43	0.24	-0.07	0.16	0.26	-0.22	-0.05	0.17	0.42
1902	1.25	0.74	-0.3	0.37	0.25	-0.1	0.09	0.18	0.01	-0.25	-0.6	0.87
1903	0.26	0.58	0.17	0.68	-0.27	0.45	0.44	0.69	0.38	0.6	0.53	1.15
1904	1.16	2.62	2.11	1.34	0.67	0.92	0.39	0.92	0.34	0.29	0.7	0.72
1905	0.84	1.04	0.67	-0.12	-0.07	-0.3	0.04	0.21	0.02	-0.99	-0.05	-0.09
1906	-0.59	0.19	-0.05	0.05	-0.43	0.06	0.39	0.45	0.22	0.03	-0.27	0.69
1907	-0.59	0.76	-0.06	0.16	-0.05	-0.34	-0.56	-0.55	-0.55	0.05	-0.19	-0.5
1908	0.6	1.07	1.28	0.34	-0.38	-0.63	-0.21	-0.25	-0.4	-0.58	-0.04	-0.34
1909	-0.14	-0.15	0.05	-0.62	-1.05	-0.93	-0.42	-0.63	-0.62	-0.2	-0.81	-0.28
1910	0.45	0.01	-0.19	-0.14	0.18	0.26	0.16	0.04	0.41	-0.71	-0.45	0.86
1911	-0.29	-0.92	0.64	0.23	-0.73	-0.1	-0.48	-0.48	-0.59	-1.21	-0.93	-1.71
1912	0.52	0.77	-0.39	-1.29	-0.63	-0.29	-0.21	0.11	-0.8	-1.14	-0.63	-1.13
1913	-0.49	0.49	0.01	-0.33	0.13	0.1	0.35	0.11	0.11	0.05	-0.23	-0.81
1914	0.3	-0.11	0.46	-0.09	-0.24	0.02	0.35	0.51	0.03	-0.25	0.53	0.33
1915	0.32	0.27	0.92	-0.3	-0.32	-0.81	-0.32	0.4	-0.19	-0.2	0.21	0.87
1916	-0.95	1.24	1.12	0.31	-0.29	0.34	-0.04	0.15	0.11	-0.18	-0.07	-0.13
1917	-0.26	1.36	0.54	0.37	0.52	0.84	0.39	0.42	0.96	1.34	0.75	2.01
1918	1.65	1.44	0.36	0.67	-0.23	0.64	0.4	0.48	0.65	0.89	0.26	0.45
1919	0.38	0.68	0.44	0.33	0.26	0.25	0.06	0.27	0.32	0.06	-0.15	0.11
1920	-0.23	0	0.04	-0.12	0.35	0.35	0.36	-0.03	-0.31	-0.24	-1.1	-1.55
1921	-0.48	0.04	-0.06	-0.22	0.16	0.07	0.24	0.49	1.12	0.9	1.9	1.18
1922	0.74	1.04	0.84	0.06	0.24	0.96	1	0.29	-0.28	-0.31	-0.52	0.79
1923	1.07	0.4	0.58	0.63	0.44	0.57	0.64	0.43	0.57	-0.28	0.35	0.61
1924	1.11	0.85	0.35	0.55	0.4	0.72	-0.13	0.17	0.21	0.08	0.78	1.65
1925	1.15	1.3	0.76	0.57	0.84	0.72	0.54	-0.03	0.1	1.05	0.39	0.56
1926	0.62	0.8	0.26	0.37	0.12	0.05	-0.19	0.18	0.13	0.11	0.68	0.87
1927	0.66	1.66	1.22	1.51	1.05	0.39	0.3	0.39	0.75	0.72	0.56	1.4
1928	1.72	1.14	0.81	0.82	0.23	0.48	-0.13	0.52	0.33	0.75	0.16	0.79
1929	1.2	1.5	1.22	0.28	0.4	0.32	0.56	0.33	1.16	0.81	0.71	0.9
1930	1.6	1.2	1.13	1.28	0.41	0.44	0.42	0.18	0.71	0.38	0.9	1.29
1931	0.72	1.08	0.95	1	1	1.09	1.11	1.02	0.71	0.89	1.55	2.38
1932	2.79	3.21	2.77	0.53	0.34	0.07	0.08	-0.3	0.02	0.64	1.28	1.63
1933	0.5	1.75	0.86	0.16	0.35	0.15	0.17	-0.39	0.27	0.81	0.81	1.63
1934	0.72	0.89	0.46	0.32	0.33	0.65	0.26	0.35	0.35	0.27	-0.09	0.07
1935	1.64	1.13	1.69	0.54	0.41	0.23	0.19	0.38	0.29	0.4	-0.41	0.98
1936	1.35	0.82	0.89	0.12	-0.08	0.03	-0.12	0.82	0.31	0.39	-0.11	0.94
1937	-1.3	0.45	1.19	0.47	0.35	0.17	0.21	0.71	1	1.11	0.74	1.24
1938	1.14	0.36	-0.11	0.11	0.35	0.45	0.52	0.63	0.61	0.71	2.21	1.6
1939	2.08	2.43	1.33	1.17	0.59	0.91	0.39	0.04	1.17	0.95	1	1.01
1940	2.19	1.81	2.04	1.62	1.01	0.94	0.65	0.96	0.9	0.83	1.36	1
1941	1.98	1.7	1.58	0.55	0.33	0.68	0.31	0.76	0.63	0.8	0.75	0.99
1942	1.53	1.4	1.28	0.6	1.13	1.01	0.65	0.73	0.52	0.81	1.12	1.96
1943	2.79	2.13	2.21	1.56	1.28	0.86	0.74	1.49	1.44	1.31	1.83	2.08
1944	1.86	3.17	2.79	2.1	1.24	1.75	1.66	1.47	1.37	0.97	0.62	1.64
1945	2.6	1.55	0.5	1.36	1.42	1.22	1.12	0.81	1.41	1.34	1.29	1.8
1946	1.31	1.42	0.78	0.69	0.85	0.64	0.35	0.53	0.46	1.09	1.63	1.11
1947	1.74	1.8	1.67	1.74	1.46	1.74	0.69	0.94	1.15	0.95	1.7	1.24
1948	1.74	1.75	2.07	1.99	1.39	1.58	1.42	1.2	1.15	1.41	1.58	2.71
1949	3.09	2.72	2.35	1.18	1.07	1.23	1.26	1.09	0.95	1.21	1.12	1.58
1950	2.17	1.89	1.21	1.02	0.96	0.61	0.48	0.18	0.42	0.39	0.19	-0.22
1951	0.1	0.24	-0.1	0.11	0.53	0.86	0.83	0.98	1.05	0.39	0.94	1.45
1952	1.74	1.23	1.03	0.49	0.87	1.05	0.57	0.88	1.18	1.36	1.27	1.84
1953	2.57	2.28	1.89	1.42	1.54	1.23	1.07	1.05	1.05	1.23	1.3	2.37
1954	3.03	1.96	1.8	1.71	1.14	1	0.98	1.3	1.56	1.55	1.07	1.56
1955	2.4	2.56	2.84	1.47	1.44	0.89	0.53	0.56	0.73	1.07	2.66	2.38
1956	2.34	2.75	2.63	2.04	1.64	0.94	0.8	0.99	1.35	0.9	0.89	1.51
1957	2.08	1.76	0.49	0.71	0.67	0.82	0.23	0.81	1.06	0.76	0.64	0.99
1958	1.26	1.86	0.85	0.66	0.8	0.91	0.49	0.23	0.34	0.51	1.05	1.97
1959	1.71	1.83	1.35	1.03	0.5	0.41	0.48	0.23	0.93	1.37	1.87	1.03
1960	1.63	1.78	1.47	1.58	1.6	1.22	0.62	1.09	1.09	1.07	1.2	0.73
1961	0.49	1.19	1.12	1.15	0.97	0.6	0.76	0.49	0.44	0.66	1.3	1.82
1962	2.18	2.52	1.54	1.73	2.17	1.69	1.39	1.52	1.58	1.67	1.54	1.83
1963	2.97	2.51	1.71	1.53	1.51	0.88	0.69	0.99	1.1	0.9	1.32	2.04
1964	1.83	1.6	2	1.69	1.12	1.32	0.59	0.73	1.34	0.82	1.69	2.19
1965	2.19	2.71	2.31	2.27	1.35	1.15	0.95	1.06	1.98	1.16	1.98	1.28
1966	1.9	1.88	1.31	1.23	0.77	0.31	0.4	0.6	0.48	0.55	1.27	1.16
1967	1.9	2.34	2.17	1.23	0.92	0.35	0.62	0.92	0.69	0.7	0.78	0.62
1968	2.15	2.09	1.05	0.98	0.35	0.16	0.44	0.32	0.07	0.59	0.06	0.38
1969	1.2	0.12	0.42	0.02	0.14	0.44	-0.02	0.43	0.16	-0.12	0.04	-0.31
1970	0.61	0.1	0.39	0.06	-0.03	-0.4	-0.28	-0.37	-0.24	-0.07	0.57	0.81
1971	0.61	-0.16	0.34	-0.45	-0.37	-0.25	-0.54	-0.32	-0.37	-1.2	-0.15	-0.25
1972	0.54	0.3	0.29	-0.46	-0.11	0.12	0.66	0.05	0.6	0.97	0.67	1.59
1973	0.97	1.11	0.38	0.35	0.47	-0.01	-0.28	0.31	-0.33	-0.02	0.53	0.92
1974	1.64	0.14	1.1	1.02	1.64	0.84	0.26	1	1.16	0.67	0.15	0.7
1975	2.37	1.31	0.6	0.76	0.69	0.95	0.51	0.8	1.21	0.78	0.9	1.61
1976	2.12	1.92	1.16	1.12	0.65	0.57	0.81	0.71	0.79	0.43	1.05	1
1977	2.2	1.74	0.42	0.29	-0.14	0.6	0.18	0.55	0.32	0.39	0.14	1.96
1978	2.17	2.74	1.95	0.79	0.33	0.32	0.58	0.6	1.02	1.25	1.09	1.57
1979	2.13	2.65	1.21	1.24	0.65	0.53	0.57	0.73	0.79	0.68	0.28	0.05
1980	-0.13	0.89	0.32	0.28	0.41	1.01	1.3	0.62	0.44	0.59	0.33	0.88
1981	0.91	0.81	0.4	0.72	0.05	0.43	0.51	0.57	0.67	0.8	1.03	1.76
1982	3.21	2.28	1.64	1.23	0.59	0.57	0.39	1.14	1.49	1.42	2.14	2.52
1983	1.18	1.55	1.46	1.44	1.45	1.44	1.46	0.99	1.3	1.18	1.04	1.53
1984	1.56	1.75	1.82	1.23	1.24	1.03	0.73	0.6	1.22	1.37	0.91	1.72
1985	2.37	1.79	1.2	0.64	0.51	0.5	0.14	0.11	0.13	0.37	-0.62	-0.18
1986	0.22	0.82	0.45	0.1	-0.06	0.22	0.38	0.07	0.19	-0.23	0.19	0.12
1987	-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.21	-0.38	0.02	0.33	0.21	0.24	0.8	0.19	0.5
1988	0.16	0.84	0.53	0.42	-0.14	0.48	0.27	0.21	0.53	1.23	0.87	1.19
1989	1.3	1.43	1.7	1.43	0.76	0.45	0.61	0.46	0.96	0.33	0.65	0.85
1990	0.6	1.47	1.06	0.71	0.89	0.23	0.31	0.29	0.13	0.52	0.54	0.53
1991	0.2	0.43	-0.87	-0.35	-0.11	-0.55	-0.22	-0.15	0.66	-0.31	0.72	-0.14
1992	-0.31	-0.15	-0.29	0.34	0.13	0	0.24	0.3	0.02	-0.07	-0.69	-0.15
1993	-0.78	0.22	0.13	-0.41	-0.05	-0.46	0.05	-0.06	0.04	0.34	0.6	0.75
1994	1.62	1.72	1.15	0.88	0.45	0.34	0.48	0.31	0.37	0.74	1.25	0.81
1995	1.36	0.96	0.67	0.06	-0.14	0.36	-0.05	-0.33	0.09	-0.08	0.94	1.04
1996	1.23	1.51	0.81	0.66	-0.12	-0.02	0.44	0.14	-0.01	-0.28	0.68	0.19
1997	0.43	0.7	0.1	0.42	0.73	-0.22	0.16	0.47	0.04	0.61	0.84	0.44
1998	0.76	-0.3	0.62	0.23	-0.39	-0.34	-0.13	-0.17	-0.43	0.31	1.3	0.54
1999	0.65	1.02	0.27	0.69	0.46	0.48	0.2	0.77	0.6	0.44	0.49	0.43
2000	1.46	1.21	0.3	0.8	0.16	0.42	0.39	0.84	0.51	0.89	1.11	1.13
2001	1.69	1.95	1.58	1.16	0.53	1.21	1.28	0.81	1.21	1.1	1.56	1.36
2002	1	1.19	1.1	1.45	1.06	1.28	1.28	1.33	0.82	2.34	1.58	1.46
2003	2.79	2.3	1.38	1.1	1.24	1.19	1.57	1.19	0.86	1.23	0.87	1.95
2004	2.17	1.21	2	1.3	0.97	1.6	1.12	1.4	0.83	1.03	0.71	1.55
2005	2.55	1.57	2.26	0.74	1.36	0.32	0.74	1.3	0.52	0.95	0.61	1.22
2006	-0.1	1.36	1.29	0.17	0.5	0.26	-0.05	0.21	0.52	0.54	0.54	0.35
2007	0.37	1.33	0.96	0.86	0.58	0.45	0.05	0.29	0.03	0.14	1.04	1.63
2008	1.17	1.8	1.6	-0.1	-0.18	0.48	0.19	0.28	0.22	0.37	0.6	1.99
2009	2.74	1.54	1.3	0.67	0.26	0.84	0.93	0.7	0.86	0.6	1.15	1.07
2010	2.51	1.8	1.06	0.51	0.51	0.99	0.36	0.87	0.28	0.62	0.47	1.59
2011	2.17	1.84	1.87	0.96	-0.12	0.82	0.79	1.02	1.27	1.38	1.19	1.29
2012	2.1	2.83	0.95	1.39	0.96	1.33	0.63	1.2	1.13	1.63	1.56	1.56
2013	1.64	1.56	2.02	1.36	0.69	0.97	0.7	0.85	1.04	1.04	2.05	2.56

More Sunshine in North America From 1982 – 2012

Published on June 10, 2014June 10, 2014 by sunshinehours11 Comment

Well … technically they say 4.2% less clouds. But that does mean more sunshine (except at night).

The emergence of satellite-based cloud records of climate-length and quality hold tremendous potential for climate model development, climate monitoring, and studies on global water cycling and its subsequent energetics. This article examines the more than thirty-year PATMOS-x AVHRR cloudiness record over North America and assesses its suitability as a climate-quality data record. A loss of ~4.2% total cloudiness is observed between 1982 and 2012 over a North American domain centered over the contiguous United States.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00068.1?af=R&

As you know, land base sunshine monitoring is atrocious in North America. Once upon a time Canada had over 300 stations collecting sunshine data. How do we know whether major ups and downs in climate aren’t because of more or less clouds?

(h/t Hockey Schtick)

USHCN 2.5 – How Much Of The Data is Estimated?

Published on June 7, 2014 by sunshinehours13 Comments

I’ve been dabbling in the USHCN data to see how much is Estimated and how much is Real. You can read more here.

This is California (Nevada is there because of the shape of California) for the 12 months of 2013. The red stations (with name and elevation) are Estimated. The blue stations (no name to save space) are “real“.

For just California December 2013, 18 out of 43 are Estimated. The Estimated stations average 8.12C and the “Real” stations average 7.02. Click image for full size.

USHCN 2.5 – Estimated Data Is Warming Data – Arizona

Published on June 5, 2014 by sunshinehours12 Comments

An addendum to yesterdays post about “Estimated” data.

These are the 9 months in Arizona with the biggest change due to Estimated data. I’ll focus on December (the top graph). Remember, this is the Final data after all the other adjustments.

About 15% of the data is Estimated from neighboring stations.

The trend of REAL data is negative -.04C/decade.

Then they add in about 15% Estimated data with a trend of +0.43C/decade.

The net result is a new trend of +0.02C/decade.

Presto. Magic. A downward trend is now an upward trend. (Click on graph for larger)

USHCN 2.5 – Estimated Data Is Warming Data

Published on June 4, 2014June 4, 2014 by sunshinehours16 Comments

Over at Steven Goddard’s blog he is trying to point out how much USHCN data is “Estimated”.

From the readme.txt file: " 'E' indicates the data value is an estimate from surrounding values; no original value is available;"

So I had a copy of the data from last month because of a previous post.

So I thought … take the Final data and graph each month comparing data with an E flag to all the data without an E flag.

Surprise. Estimated data is Warming Data. And that is ignoring all the manipulation in going from Raw to Final data.

Whitehouse Admits Warmer Weather Best For Economy

Published on May 30, 2014May 30, 2014 by sunshinehours1Leave a comment

The White House admitted yesterday that warmer weather is better for the US GDP. (A very slight exaggeration on my part)

“3. The first quarter of 2014 was marked by unusually severe winter weather, including record cold temperatures and snowstorms, which explains part of the difference in GDP growth relative to previous quarters. The left chart shows the quarterly deviation in heating degree days from its average for the same quarter over the previous five years. By this measure, the first quarter of 2014 was the third most unusually cold quarter over the last sixty years, behind only the first quarter of 1978 and the fourth quarter of 1976. “

There is some question whether there numbers are correct as this blog post discusses.

The NOAA suggests Q1 had the 9th lowest heating degree days (not the asserted 3rd)

But I think we can all agree that if more “Heating Degree Days” is bad for the GDP as the White House assets, then fewer “Heating Degree Days” would be better for the economy.

And therefore “Global Warming” is better for the US GDP.

We certainly don’t want to damage the economy by returning to the late 1970’s when “Heating Degree Days” went through the roof! That would be a disaster for the US economy.

Hurrah!