Tag: USA

USHCN 2.5 – Estimated Warming By Year and Month

Published on by sunshinehours11 Comment

This is the 3rd or 4th post on USHCN warming. You can read more here.

Today I have taken the Final data from 1895 to 2013 and am comparing the average for each month Estimated to Real in Celsius.

As you can see, in all cases the Estimated data is warmer. What a shock! (Not really).

Month Estimated Real Estimated minus Real
Jan 0.17 -1.02 1.19
Feb 1.95 0.8 1.15
Mar 6.39 5.42 0.97
Apr 11.53 10.85 0.68
May 16.45 15.96 0.49
Jun 21.05 20.54 0.51
Jul 23.61 23.21 0.4
Aug 22.86 22.37 0.49
Sep 18.94 18.42 0.52
Oct 12.97 12.45 0.52
Nov 6.5 5.82 0.68
Dec 1.5 0.54 0.96

The next table is just the difference for each year and month. If Estimated is larger than Real, then the color will be red, otherwise blue. If the difference is more than 1 or -1, then bold will emphasize.

Red means the Estimated data is hotter than the non-estimated for that year and month.

Blue is much rarer than red. And bold blue is very rare indeed.

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1895 0.12 -0.29 0.04 0.06 -0.38 0.22 -0.2 -0.21 -0.31 0.09 0.26 0.67
1896 0.78 0.9 1.08 1.21 0.84 0.54 0.15 0.29 0.39 0.43 0.4 0.1
1897 -0.24 0.48 0.66 0.23 -0.14 -0.07 0.03 -0.11 0.44 -0.11 -0.19 0.9
1898 -0.27 0.16 -0.24 0.16 -0.41 -0.05 0 0.23 0.03 -0.82 -0.93 -0.35
1899 0.17 -0.03 0.39 -0.37 -0.33 -0.54 -0.28 -0.23 0.14 -0.47 0.18 0.26
1900 0.89 0.97 1.35 0.56 -0.35 -0.05 -0.11 -0.22 -0.34 -0.74 -0.23 0.48
1901 1.57 1.74 1.16 0.43 0.24 -0.07 0.16 0.26 -0.22 -0.05 0.17 0.42
1902 1.25 0.74 -0.3 0.37 0.25 -0.1 0.09 0.18 0.01 -0.25 -0.6 0.87
1903 0.26 0.58 0.17 0.68 -0.27 0.45 0.44 0.69 0.38 0.6 0.53 1.15
1904 1.16 2.62 2.11 1.34 0.67 0.92 0.39 0.92 0.34 0.29 0.7 0.72
1905 0.84 1.04 0.67 -0.12 -0.07 -0.3 0.04 0.21 0.02 -0.99 -0.05 -0.09
1906 -0.59 0.19 -0.05 0.05 -0.43 0.06 0.39 0.45 0.22 0.03 -0.27 0.69
1907 -0.59 0.76 -0.06 0.16 -0.05 -0.34 -0.56 -0.55 -0.55 0.05 -0.19 -0.5
1908 0.6 1.07 1.28 0.34 -0.38 -0.63 -0.21 -0.25 -0.4 -0.58 -0.04 -0.34
1909 -0.14 -0.15 0.05 -0.62 -1.05 -0.93 -0.42 -0.63 -0.62 -0.2 -0.81 -0.28
1910 0.45 0.01 -0.19 -0.14 0.18 0.26 0.16 0.04 0.41 -0.71 -0.45 0.86
1911 -0.29 -0.92 0.64 0.23 -0.73 -0.1 -0.48 -0.48 -0.59 -1.21 -0.93 -1.71
1912 0.52 0.77 -0.39 -1.29 -0.63 -0.29 -0.21 0.11 -0.8 -1.14 -0.63 -1.13
1913 -0.49 0.49 0.01 -0.33 0.13 0.1 0.35 0.11 0.11 0.05 -0.23 -0.81
1914 0.3 -0.11 0.46 -0.09 -0.24 0.02 0.35 0.51 0.03 -0.25 0.53 0.33
1915 0.32 0.27 0.92 -0.3 -0.32 -0.81 -0.32 0.4 -0.19 -0.2 0.21 0.87
1916 -0.95 1.24 1.12 0.31 -0.29 0.34 -0.04 0.15 0.11 -0.18 -0.07 -0.13
1917 -0.26 1.36 0.54 0.37 0.52 0.84 0.39 0.42 0.96 1.34 0.75 2.01
1918 1.65 1.44 0.36 0.67 -0.23 0.64 0.4 0.48 0.65 0.89 0.26 0.45
1919 0.38 0.68 0.44 0.33 0.26 0.25 0.06 0.27 0.32 0.06 -0.15 0.11
1920 -0.23 0 0.04 -0.12 0.35 0.35 0.36 -0.03 -0.31 -0.24 -1.1 -1.55
1921 -0.48 0.04 -0.06 -0.22 0.16 0.07 0.24 0.49 1.12 0.9 1.9 1.18
1922 0.74 1.04 0.84 0.06 0.24 0.96 1 0.29 -0.28 -0.31 -0.52 0.79
1923 1.07 0.4 0.58 0.63 0.44 0.57 0.64 0.43 0.57 -0.28 0.35 0.61
1924 1.11 0.85 0.35 0.55 0.4 0.72 -0.13 0.17 0.21 0.08 0.78 1.65
1925 1.15 1.3 0.76 0.57 0.84 0.72 0.54 -0.03 0.1 1.05 0.39 0.56
1926 0.62 0.8 0.26 0.37 0.12 0.05 -0.19 0.18 0.13 0.11 0.68 0.87
1927 0.66 1.66 1.22 1.51 1.05 0.39 0.3 0.39 0.75 0.72 0.56 1.4
1928 1.72 1.14 0.81 0.82 0.23 0.48 -0.13 0.52 0.33 0.75 0.16 0.79
1929 1.2 1.5 1.22 0.28 0.4 0.32 0.56 0.33 1.16 0.81 0.71 0.9
1930 1.6 1.2 1.13 1.28 0.41 0.44 0.42 0.18 0.71 0.38 0.9 1.29
1931 0.72 1.08 0.95 1 1 1.09 1.11 1.02 0.71 0.89 1.55 2.38
1932 2.79 3.21 2.77 0.53 0.34 0.07 0.08 -0.3 0.02 0.64 1.28 1.63
1933 0.5 1.75 0.86 0.16 0.35 0.15 0.17 -0.39 0.27 0.81 0.81 1.63
1934 0.72 0.89 0.46 0.32 0.33 0.65 0.26 0.35 0.35 0.27 -0.09 0.07
1935 1.64 1.13 1.69 0.54 0.41 0.23 0.19 0.38 0.29 0.4 -0.41 0.98
1936 1.35 0.82 0.89 0.12 -0.08 0.03 -0.12 0.82 0.31 0.39 -0.11 0.94
1937 -1.3 0.45 1.19 0.47 0.35 0.17 0.21 0.71 1 1.11 0.74 1.24
1938 1.14 0.36 -0.11 0.11 0.35 0.45 0.52 0.63 0.61 0.71 2.21 1.6
1939 2.08 2.43 1.33 1.17 0.59 0.91 0.39 0.04 1.17 0.95 1 1.01
1940 2.19 1.81 2.04 1.62 1.01 0.94 0.65 0.96 0.9 0.83 1.36 1
1941 1.98 1.7 1.58 0.55 0.33 0.68 0.31 0.76 0.63 0.8 0.75 0.99
1942 1.53 1.4 1.28 0.6 1.13 1.01 0.65 0.73 0.52 0.81 1.12 1.96
1943 2.79 2.13 2.21 1.56 1.28 0.86 0.74 1.49 1.44 1.31 1.83 2.08
1944 1.86 3.17 2.79 2.1 1.24 1.75 1.66 1.47 1.37 0.97 0.62 1.64
1945 2.6 1.55 0.5 1.36 1.42 1.22 1.12 0.81 1.41 1.34 1.29 1.8
1946 1.31 1.42 0.78 0.69 0.85 0.64 0.35 0.53 0.46 1.09 1.63 1.11
1947 1.74 1.8 1.67 1.74 1.46 1.74 0.69 0.94 1.15 0.95 1.7 1.24
1948 1.74 1.75 2.07 1.99 1.39 1.58 1.42 1.2 1.15 1.41 1.58 2.71
1949 3.09 2.72 2.35 1.18 1.07 1.23 1.26 1.09 0.95 1.21 1.12 1.58
1950 2.17 1.89 1.21 1.02 0.96 0.61 0.48 0.18 0.42 0.39 0.19 -0.22
1951 0.1 0.24 -0.1 0.11 0.53 0.86 0.83 0.98 1.05 0.39 0.94 1.45
1952 1.74 1.23 1.03 0.49 0.87 1.05 0.57 0.88 1.18 1.36 1.27 1.84
1953 2.57 2.28 1.89 1.42 1.54 1.23 1.07 1.05 1.05 1.23 1.3 2.37
1954 3.03 1.96 1.8 1.71 1.14 1 0.98 1.3 1.56 1.55 1.07 1.56
1955 2.4 2.56 2.84 1.47 1.44 0.89 0.53 0.56 0.73 1.07 2.66 2.38
1956 2.34 2.75 2.63 2.04 1.64 0.94 0.8 0.99 1.35 0.9 0.89 1.51
1957 2.08 1.76 0.49 0.71 0.67 0.82 0.23 0.81 1.06 0.76 0.64 0.99
1958 1.26 1.86 0.85 0.66 0.8 0.91 0.49 0.23 0.34 0.51 1.05 1.97
1959 1.71 1.83 1.35 1.03 0.5 0.41 0.48 0.23 0.93 1.37 1.87 1.03
1960 1.63 1.78 1.47 1.58 1.6 1.22 0.62 1.09 1.09 1.07 1.2 0.73
1961 0.49 1.19 1.12 1.15 0.97 0.6 0.76 0.49 0.44 0.66 1.3 1.82
1962 2.18 2.52 1.54 1.73 2.17 1.69 1.39 1.52 1.58 1.67 1.54 1.83
1963 2.97 2.51 1.71 1.53 1.51 0.88 0.69 0.99 1.1 0.9 1.32 2.04
1964 1.83 1.6 2 1.69 1.12 1.32 0.59 0.73 1.34 0.82 1.69 2.19
1965 2.19 2.71 2.31 2.27 1.35 1.15 0.95 1.06 1.98 1.16 1.98 1.28
1966 1.9 1.88 1.31 1.23 0.77 0.31 0.4 0.6 0.48 0.55 1.27 1.16
1967 1.9 2.34 2.17 1.23 0.92 0.35 0.62 0.92 0.69 0.7 0.78 0.62
1968 2.15 2.09 1.05 0.98 0.35 0.16 0.44 0.32 0.07 0.59 0.06 0.38
1969 1.2 0.12 0.42 0.02 0.14 0.44 -0.02 0.43 0.16 -0.12 0.04 -0.31
1970 0.61 0.1 0.39 0.06 -0.03 -0.4 -0.28 -0.37 -0.24 -0.07 0.57 0.81
1971 0.61 -0.16 0.34 -0.45 -0.37 -0.25 -0.54 -0.32 -0.37 -1.2 -0.15 -0.25
1972 0.54 0.3 0.29 -0.46 -0.11 0.12 0.66 0.05 0.6 0.97 0.67 1.59
1973 0.97 1.11 0.38 0.35 0.47 -0.01 -0.28 0.31 -0.33 -0.02 0.53 0.92
1974 1.64 0.14 1.1 1.02 1.64 0.84 0.26 1 1.16 0.67 0.15 0.7
1975 2.37 1.31 0.6 0.76 0.69 0.95 0.51 0.8 1.21 0.78 0.9 1.61
1976 2.12 1.92 1.16 1.12 0.65 0.57 0.81 0.71 0.79 0.43 1.05 1
1977 2.2 1.74 0.42 0.29 -0.14 0.6 0.18 0.55 0.32 0.39 0.14 1.96
1978 2.17 2.74 1.95 0.79 0.33 0.32 0.58 0.6 1.02 1.25 1.09 1.57
1979 2.13 2.65 1.21 1.24 0.65 0.53 0.57 0.73 0.79 0.68 0.28 0.05
1980 -0.13 0.89 0.32 0.28 0.41 1.01 1.3 0.62 0.44 0.59 0.33 0.88
1981 0.91 0.81 0.4 0.72 0.05 0.43 0.51 0.57 0.67 0.8 1.03 1.76
1982 3.21 2.28 1.64 1.23 0.59 0.57 0.39 1.14 1.49 1.42 2.14 2.52
1983 1.18 1.55 1.46 1.44 1.45 1.44 1.46 0.99 1.3 1.18 1.04 1.53
1984 1.56 1.75 1.82 1.23 1.24 1.03 0.73 0.6 1.22 1.37 0.91 1.72
1985 2.37 1.79 1.2 0.64 0.51 0.5 0.14 0.11 0.13 0.37 -0.62 -0.18
1986 0.22 0.82 0.45 0.1 -0.06 0.22 0.38 0.07 0.19 -0.23 0.19 0.12
1987 -0.03 -0.03 -0.06 0.21 -0.38 0.02 0.33 0.21 0.24 0.8 0.19 0.5
1988 0.16 0.84 0.53 0.42 -0.14 0.48 0.27 0.21 0.53 1.23 0.87 1.19
1989 1.3 1.43 1.7 1.43 0.76 0.45 0.61 0.46 0.96 0.33 0.65 0.85
1990 0.6 1.47 1.06 0.71 0.89 0.23 0.31 0.29 0.13 0.52 0.54 0.53
1991 0.2 0.43 -0.87 -0.35 -0.11 -0.55 -0.22 -0.15 0.66 -0.31 0.72 -0.14
1992 -0.31 -0.15 -0.29 0.34 0.13 0 0.24 0.3 0.02 -0.07 -0.69 -0.15
1993 -0.78 0.22 0.13 -0.41 -0.05 -0.46 0.05 -0.06 0.04 0.34 0.6 0.75
1994 1.62 1.72 1.15 0.88 0.45 0.34 0.48 0.31 0.37 0.74 1.25 0.81
1995 1.36 0.96 0.67 0.06 -0.14 0.36 -0.05 -0.33 0.09 -0.08 0.94 1.04
1996 1.23 1.51 0.81 0.66 -0.12 -0.02 0.44 0.14 -0.01 -0.28 0.68 0.19
1997 0.43 0.7 0.1 0.42 0.73 -0.22 0.16 0.47 0.04 0.61 0.84 0.44
1998 0.76 -0.3 0.62 0.23 -0.39 -0.34 -0.13 -0.17 -0.43 0.31 1.3 0.54
1999 0.65 1.02 0.27 0.69 0.46 0.48 0.2 0.77 0.6 0.44 0.49 0.43
2000 1.46 1.21 0.3 0.8 0.16 0.42 0.39 0.84 0.51 0.89 1.11 1.13
2001 1.69 1.95 1.58 1.16 0.53 1.21 1.28 0.81 1.21 1.1 1.56 1.36
2002 1 1.19 1.1 1.45 1.06 1.28 1.28 1.33 0.82 2.34 1.58 1.46
2003 2.79 2.3 1.38 1.1 1.24 1.19 1.57 1.19 0.86 1.23 0.87 1.95
2004 2.17 1.21 2 1.3 0.97 1.6 1.12 1.4 0.83 1.03 0.71 1.55
2005 2.55 1.57 2.26 0.74 1.36 0.32 0.74 1.3 0.52 0.95 0.61 1.22
2006 -0.1 1.36 1.29 0.17 0.5 0.26 -0.05 0.21 0.52 0.54 0.54 0.35
2007 0.37 1.33 0.96 0.86 0.58 0.45 0.05 0.29 0.03 0.14 1.04 1.63
2008 1.17 1.8 1.6 -0.1 -0.18 0.48 0.19 0.28 0.22 0.37 0.6 1.99
2009 2.74 1.54 1.3 0.67 0.26 0.84 0.93 0.7 0.86 0.6 1.15 1.07
2010 2.51 1.8 1.06 0.51 0.51 0.99 0.36 0.87 0.28 0.62 0.47 1.59
2011 2.17 1.84 1.87 0.96 -0.12 0.82 0.79 1.02 1.27 1.38 1.19 1.29
2012 2.1 2.83 0.95 1.39 0.96 1.33 0.63 1.2 1.13 1.63 1.56 1.56
2013 1.64 1.56 2.02 1.36 0.69 0.97 0.7 0.85 1.04 1.04 2.05 2.56

More Sunshine in North America From 1982 – 2012

Published on by sunshinehours11 Comment

Well … technically they say 4.2% less clouds. But that does mean more sunshine (except at night).

The emergence of satellite-based cloud records of climate-length and quality hold tremendous potential for climate model development, climate monitoring, and studies on global water cycling and its subsequent energetics. This article examines the more than thirty-year PATMOS-x AVHRR cloudiness record over North America and assesses its suitability as a climate-quality data record. A loss of ~4.2% total cloudiness is observed between 1982 and 2012 over a North American domain centered over the contiguous United States.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00068.1?af=R&

 

As you know, land base sunshine monitoring is atrocious in North America. Once upon a time Canada had over 300 stations collecting sunshine data. How do we know whether major ups and downs in climate aren’t because of more or less clouds?

 

(h/t Hockey Schtick)

 

USHCN 2.5 – How Much Of The Data is Estimated?

Published on by sunshinehours13 Comments

I’ve been dabbling in the USHCN data to see how much is Estimated and how much is Real. You can read more here.

This is California (Nevada is there because of the shape of California) for the 12 months of 2013. The red stations (with name and elevation) are Estimated. The blue stations (no name to save space) are “real“.

For just California December 2013, 18 out of 43 are Estimated. The Estimated stations average 8.12C and the “Real” stations average 7.02.  Click image for full size.

USHCN_CA_2013

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USHCN 2.5 – Estimated Data Is Warming Data – Arizona

Published on by sunshinehours12 Comments

An addendum to yesterdays post about “Estimated” data.

These are the 9 months in Arizona with the biggest change due to Estimated data. I’ll focus on December (the top graph). Remember, this is the Final data after all the other adjustments.

About 15% of the data is Estimated from neighboring stations.

The trend of REAL data is negative -.04C/decade.

Then they add in about 15% Estimated data with a trend of  +0.43C/decade.

The net result is a new trend of +0.02C/decade.

Presto. Magic. A downward trend is now an upward trend. (Click on graph for larger)

AZ USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) Dec

AZ USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) Feb

AZ USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) Jan

AZ USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) Mar

AZ USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) May

AZ USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) Jul

AZ USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) Nov

AZ USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) Oct

AZ USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) Apr

USHCN 2.5 – Estimated Data Is Warming Data

Published on by sunshinehours16 Comments

Over at Steven Goddard’s blog he is trying to point out how much USHCN data is “Estimated”.

From the readme.txt file: " 'E' indicates the data value is an estimate from surrounding values; no original value is available;"

So I had a copy of the data from last month because of a previous post.

So I thought … take the Final data and graph each month comparing data with an E flag to all the data without an E flag.

Surprise. Estimated data is Warming Data. And that is ignoring all the manipulation in going from Raw to Final data.

USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) Jan

USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) Feb

USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) Mar

USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) Apr

USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) May

USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) Jun

USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) Jul

USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) Aug

USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) Oct

USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) Sep

USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) Nov

USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) Dec

Whitehouse Admits Warmer Weather Best For Economy

Published on by sunshinehours1Leave a comment

The White House admitted yesterday that warmer weather is better for the US GDP. (A very slight exaggeration on my part)

“3. The first quarter of 2014 was marked by unusually severe winter weather, including record cold temperatures and snowstorms, which explains part of the difference in GDP growth relative to previous quarters. The left chart shows the quarterly deviation in heating degree days from its average for the same quarter over the previous five years. By this measure, the first quarter of 2014 was the third most unusually cold quarter over the last sixty years, behind only the first quarter of 1978 and the fourth quarter of 1976. “

There is some question whether there numbers are correct as this blog post discusses.

The NOAA suggests Q1 had the 9th lowest heating degree days (not the asserted 3rd)

 

Heating Degree Days 2014 Q1

But I think we can all agree that if more “Heating Degree Days” is bad for the GDP as the White House assets, then fewer “Heating Degree Days” would be better for the economy.

And therefore “Global Warming” is better for the US GDP.

We certainly don’t want to damage the economy by returning to the late 1970’s when “Heating Degree Days” went through the roof!  That would be a disaster for the US economy.

Hurrah!

USA NOAA April 2014 – 3.01F Colder Than April 1925

Published on by sunshinehours1Leave a comment

According to the NOAA April 2014 was ranked 75th out of 120 April’s (120 = warmest) . It was only .66F above the 1901-2000 average.

The 3rd warmest April in US history was in 1925 when it was 3.67F above the 1901-2000 average.

Other April’s warmer than 2014:  1895,1896,1906,1908,1910,1915,1925,1930,1934,1938,1941,1942,1943,1946,1948,1949 ….

NOAA_Apr_2014_Lower_48

 

USHCN 2.5 Adjustments (Final – Raw)

Published on by sunshinehours12 Comments

Over at Nick Stokes blog they are trying to tear down a graph used by WUWT and Steven Goddard. They have made a valid point that the last few skyrocketing points may be because of late data.

But I thought I would take a look at monthly adjustments to tavg, tmin and tmax. Each of these 3 graph sets show the Final Temperature  minus the  Raw Temperature.

1) As you can see the USHN adjustments cool the past (especially the warm 20s/30s/40s).

2) I don’t know why they adjust tmax so much.

3) I really, really want to know why Dec/Jan/Feb (and to a lesser degree Nov and Mar) are so heavily manipulated. The adjustments can change by .5C from year to year. Bizarre.

Click for bigger.

 

v2.5.0.20140509_tavg_final-raw_ushcn v2.5.0.20140509_tmin_final-raw_ushcn v2.5.0.20140509_tmax_final-raw_ushcn

 

 

The Streak – 1933/1934 and 2011/2012

Published on by sunshinehours11 Comment

The Hockey Schtick blog brought a recent paper to my attention.

The abstract says:

“A recent observation in NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center’s monthly assessment of the state of the climate was that contiguous US average monthly temperatures were in the top third of monthly ranked historical temperatures for thirteen straight months from June 2011 — June 2012. The chance of such a streak occurring randomly was quoted as (1/3)13, or about one in 1.6 million.”

I’m not going to discuss the “chances”. But I am going to simply note the following.

The NOAA ranks months temperature and precipitation based on the number of months from 1895. So 2012 was the 118th year. If a month is ranked 118 (as of 2012) then it was the warmest month from 1895 to 2012.

Using the same 12 month June to June time frame and using data from October 2012 ( before NOAA’s recent update) it took me about 10 minutes to find out a similar streak.

From June 1933 to to June 1934 8 months were ranked 100 and above. 2 of them were ranked 118.

From June 2011 to June 2012 8 months were ranked 100 and above. 1 of them was ranked 118.

 

year Month Rank
1933 6 118
1933 7 104
1933 9 116
1933 12 115
1934 1 114
1934 4 107
1934 5 118
1934 6 108

 

year Month Rank
2011 7 114
2011 8 117
2012 1 115
2012 2 104
2012 3 118
2012 4 116
2012 5 117
2012 6 107

What are the odds of that occurring 80 years apart!