July USA – 1936, 1934 and 1901 (tied with 2012) Are Still the Hottest in USA

July USA – 1936, 1934 and 1901 (tied with 2012) Are Still the Hottest (Maximum) in USA.

Correction: 2017 is 15th. 2017 is tied for 14th.

Clarification: I’m using Maximum Temperature. Not Average.

 

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Woodstock Ontario – Coldest July Tmax in 142 Years

Using Environment Canada monthly summaries, Woodstock Ontario had the coldest average Tmax for July since 1872 (which is when the data starts).

Warm July’s seem kind of cyclic too on this graph.

This graph is just July’s monthly anomaly from the 1981-2010 average.

Coldest5_ONT - WOODSTOCK Anomaly July as of 2014

USHCN Infilling – A rebuttal to Nick Stokes

Nick Stoke and Zeke Hausfather don’t like my graphs showing a difference between Estimated (infilled) and non-Estimated (not infilled)  USHCN data

Nick said:

“The difference between average estimated and average non-estimated, doesn’t reflect estimation. It just reflects changes in the kind of stations that were being estimated.

For some reason, they were more likely to be warmer. I don’t know why, but they were. It’s just the wrong way to do it.”

I’m not sure I believe in coincidences.

I believe Nick and Zeke both created an anomaly baseline for each month for each station. Nick used 1900 to 2013. Zeke said he used 1961-1990.

Neither of them added trend lines.

I believe both used all the data (infilled and non-infilled). (As of my posting this they had not confirmed). I disagree with that. Infilled data should not be used in the baseline.

As an example of what infilling does using the difference by station from the 1895-2013 baseline here is Dec 1998 to 2013 Tmax.

In this case, the real data had a downwards trend of -0.82C/decade and the infilled data was -0.64C/decade which is .18C/decade higher not because infilled data was hotter, but because it was less cold.

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1998-2013) Dec (Diff From non-Estimated 1895-2013) Climatology

From 1895 to 2013 the infilled trend is consistently .02C/decade to .03C/decade higher than the non-infilled trend.

The red dots are higher on the 1980 and later side of the graph while they are lower on the pre-1960 part of the graph.

Cooling the past, warming the present.

 

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1895-2013) Jul (Diff From non-Estimated 1895-2013) Climatology

 

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1895-2013) Dec (Diff From non-Estimated 1895-2013) Climatology

 

 

Misleading Information About USHCN At Judith Curry’s Blog

Zeke has an post over at Judith Curry’s blog where he makes a claim that “infill has no effect on CONUS-wide trends” (among other claims).

Zeke_Infilling_Curry

 

I disagree. Here are the 12 months comparing Estimated and Non-Estimated and then all the data. Blue = Final data (non-Estimated) Red = Final Data Estimated Green = All Final Data.

Infilling does change the trend. For example, Estimating changed the trend in Dec from .06C per decade to .07C per decade because the Estimated data had a trend of .15C/decade.

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1895-2013) Dec

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1895-2013) Nov

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1895-2013) Oct

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1895-2013) Sep

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1895-2013) Aug

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1895-2013) Jul

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1895-2013) Jun

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1895-2013) May

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1895-2013) Apr

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1895-2013) Mar

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1895-2013) Feb

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1895-2013) Jan

USHCN Tmax – Hottest July Histogram – Raw vs Adjusted

Yesterday I did a post looking at every station and finding out which year had the hottest July. Today I am showing you what effect the adjustments have.

I am using USHCN Final Tmax monthly data and comparing it to the raw data . From the file v2.5.0.20140627. (This is not necessarily all the data NOAA uses)

The format is a little different, but it is designed to allow easy comparison. Red is the raw data. Green is Final and muddy green is where raw and final overlap.

As you can see, the number of years near the present have a lot green. Which means the adjustments created more record hot years.

The 1910s to 1980s have red at the top which indicates raw data. Translation: More record July’s occurred in the past using raw data.

For the Coldest July data, the results are the opposite. Adjusting creates more colder July’s in the past and takes away cold July’s from the present.

 

USHCN Tmax - raw and Final - Hottest July

USHCN Tmax - raw and Final - Coldest July

USHCN Tmax – Coldest and Hottest July Histogram Will Surprise You!

The other day I noted that NOAA had July 1936 back on top. Now don’t take this post as an endorsement of the adjustments and infilling, but I thought I would check which years did stations set their hottest July and coldest July.

I am using USHCN Final Tmax monhtly data . From the file v2.5.0.20140627. (This is not necessarily all the data NOAA uses)

I don’t think the histogram of the hottest July will actually be a surprise. 216 stations had their hottest July in 1936.

But the coldest July histogram will surprise you. 1992 and 1993 tied with 148 stations each having the coldest July. A small subset of the stations at bottom.

USHCN Tmax Final Hottest July

USHCN Tmax Final Coldest July

I just picked the top 15 stations with the coldest July in 1992 and the hottest July in 1936. There are 92. The temperatures are in Celsius.

STATE Station NAME Coldest_Year Coldest_July Hottest_Year Hottest_July
IA USH00130133 ALGONA 3 W 1992 23.22 1936 35.98
IA USH00131402 CHARLES CITY 1992 24.18 1936 34.5
IA USH00132724 ESTHERVILLE 2 N 1992 23.06 1936 35.82
IA USH00132977 FOREST CITY 2 NNE 1992 23.69 1936 35.72
IA USH00132999 FORT DODGE 5NNW 1992 24.73 1936 36.1
IA USH00134063 INDIANOLA 2W 1992 26.57 1936 37.13
IA USH00134894 LOGAN 1992 26.56 1936 39.88
IA USH00135952 NEW HAMPTON 1992 23.38 1936 35.31
IA USH00137147 ROCK RAPIDS 1992 23.96 1936 37.48
IA USH00137161 ROCKWELL CITY 1992 24.81 1936 36.69
IA USH00137979 STORM LAKE 2 E 1992 23.85 1936 36.54
IA USH00138296 TOLEDO 3N 1992 24.82 1936 35.34
IL USH00115326 MARENGO 1992 24.66 1936 33.89
IL USH00118916 WALNUT 1992 24.94 1936 36.2
IN USH00122149 DELPHI 2 N 1992 26.5 1936 36.38

Here are a sample of 15 that have neither.

STATE Station NAME Coldest_Year Coldest_July Hottest_Year Hottest_July
AL USH00011084 BREWTON 3 SSE 1989 30.77 1902 36.71
AL USH00012813 FAIRHOPE 2 NE 1928 30.05 2000 34.93
AL USH00013160 GAINESVILLE LOCK 1916 30.25 1952 37.26
AL USH00013511 GREENSBORO 1967 28.49 1901 35.09
AL USH00015749 MUSCLE SHOALS AP 1967 29.59 1930 36.57
AL USH00017157 SAINT BERNARD 1967 27.33 1952 35.2
AL USH00017304 SCOTTSBORO 1906 29.21 1980 35.86
AL USH00017366 SELMA 1916 28.1 2000 36.65
AL USH00018178 THOMASVILLE 1916 29.87 1930 36.35
AL USH00018380 TUSCALOOSA ACFD 1889 29.5 1930 37.77
AL USH00018469 VALLEY HEAD 1967 28.31 1930 36.48
AR USH00031596 CONWAY 1989 27.83 1954 38.96
AR USH00031632 CORNING 1905 29.14 1930 38.45
AR USH00032356 EUREKA SPRINGS 3 WNW 1950 27.51 1980 38.65
AR USH00032444 FAYETTEVILLE EXP STN 1950 27.86 1954 38.03