July 2018 USA – 1936, 1934 and 1901 (tied with 2012) Are Still the Hottest in USA

July 2018 USA – 1936, 1934 and 1901 (tied with 2012) Are Still the Hottest (Maximum) in USA.

2018 is 19th. I’m using Maximum Temperature. Not Average.

 

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Alberta Average July Tmax By Decade

I posted some data about temperatures in Edmonton and Alberta. I wanted to visualize it. So I’ve made a grid.

The source of the data is Environment Canadas monthly summaries.

I’m using Tmax, not Tmean. (The logic being that max temps are the problem)

And I’m starting with the July only average for the decade. (I’ll expand in later posts).

There are 1087 stations with July data in Alberta.

I’m narrowing it down to stations with 25 years of data and data all the way up to 2017 and 80% complate.

Things to note:

Only 29 stations make the cut. Only 1 station has the 2010s as the decade with the hottest July average Tmax.

Only 2 stations have data from the 1940s (none before that).

So … AGW ain’t going to kill Albertans in July. They already survived July in the 2000s.

And there isn’t any stations with old and new data. (By that I mean the 30s).

 

Station
Station No
Records Min Year Max Year pct of data 2010s 2000s 1990s 1980s 1970s 1960s 1950s 1940s 1930s 1920s 1910s 1900s 1890s 1880s
KANANASKIS 3053600 77 1940 2017 98.7 30.4 31.1 28.3 30.1 29.3 28.8 29.3 29.9
CAMROSE 3011240 70 1946 2017 97.2 29.9 31.6 28.7 30 29.1 31.1 31.2 30.9
COLD LAKE A 3081680 65 1953 2017 100 30.2 31.2 29.8 30 29.3 31.4 30.9
FORT SASKATCHEWAN 3012710 58 1958 2017 96.7 31.4 32 29 30.3 29.9 31.6 33.9
CRAIGMYLE 3021940 52 1960 2017 89.7 31.8 33.5 30.3 32.8 32.6 32.7
EDMONTON STONY PLAIN 301222F 52 1966 2017 100 29.8 30.8 27.8 29.2 28.4 28.6
QUEENSTOWN 3035340 51 1967 2017 100 31.9 33.3 31.4 33.8 34.2 32.2
FORESTBURG PLANT SITE 3012652 50 1968 2017 100 31.7 34 30.9 32.6 31.8 31.7
HIGH LEVEL A 3073146 47 1971 2017 100 30.9 29.9 29.7 29.8 29.2
SIMONETTE 3075937 44 1974 2017 100 28.9 30 29.1 29.3 28.6
VEGREVILLE 3016GF0 37 1981 2017 100 30.7 31.3 29.7 30.3
FABYAN 3012515 36 1981 2017 97.3 29.9 32.2 29.7 31.9
LLOYDMINSTER A 3013961 36 1982 2017 100 29.4 31.6 29.6 31.7
ELK ISLAND NAT PARK 3012275 33 1982 2017 91.7 30.8 31.3 29.9 29.4
BRULE BLACK CAT 3060903 31 1987 2017 100 30.7 31 28.8 29.8
PICTURE BUTTE WEST 303N1G3 31 1987 2017 100 33.6 34.6 31.3 33.2
ENTWISTLE 3062451 30 1988 2017 100 29.9 31.3 29.1 29.8
UNIVERSITY OF ALBERTA METABOLIC CENTRE 301FFNJ 30 1987 2017 96.8 31.8 32.2 29.5 30.8
OKOTOKS 303M9JM 28 1990 2017 100 32.8 33.3 29.9
BROOKS 3030QLP 26 1989 2017 89.7 33.3 35 33.2 34
BOW ISLAND 3030768 25 1993 2017 100 33.7 34.3 31.6
BOW VALLEY 3050778 25 1993 2017 100 32.1 32.2 29.1
COP UPPER 3031875 25 1993 2017 100 31.1 31.3 28.5
CROWSNEST 3051R4R 25 1993 2017 100 31 32 29.1
ESTHER 1 301B460 25 1993 2017 100 32.9 34.8 32.3
LACOMBE CDA 2 3023722 25 1993 2017 100 30.1 31.3 28.4
SUNDRE A 3026KNQ 25 1993 2017 100 30.6 31.1 28.5
THREE HILLS 3026479 25 1993 2017 100 30.7 32.5 29.9
VAUXHALL CDA CS 3036682 25 1993 2017 100 33.6 34.8 32.8

USHCN Infilling – A rebuttal to Nick Stokes

Nick Stoke and Zeke Hausfather don’t like my graphs showing a difference between Estimated (infilled) and non-Estimated (not infilled)  USHCN data

Nick said:

“The difference between average estimated and average non-estimated, doesn’t reflect estimation. It just reflects changes in the kind of stations that were being estimated.

For some reason, they were more likely to be warmer. I don’t know why, but they were. It’s just the wrong way to do it.”

I’m not sure I believe in coincidences.

I believe Nick and Zeke both created an anomaly baseline for each month for each station. Nick used 1900 to 2013. Zeke said he used 1961-1990.

Neither of them added trend lines.

I believe both used all the data (infilled and non-infilled). (As of my posting this they had not confirmed). I disagree with that. Infilled data should not be used in the baseline.

As an example of what infilling does using the difference by station from the 1895-2013 baseline here is Dec 1998 to 2013 Tmax.

In this case, the real data had a downwards trend of -0.82C/decade and the infilled data was -0.64C/decade which is .18C/decade higher not because infilled data was hotter, but because it was less cold.

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1998-2013) Dec (Diff From non-Estimated 1895-2013) Climatology

From 1895 to 2013 the infilled trend is consistently .02C/decade to .03C/decade higher than the non-infilled trend.

The red dots are higher on the 1980 and later side of the graph while they are lower on the pre-1960 part of the graph.

Cooling the past, warming the present.

 

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1895-2013) Jul (Diff From non-Estimated 1895-2013) Climatology

 

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1895-2013) Dec (Diff From non-Estimated 1895-2013) Climatology

 

 

Misleading Information About USHCN At Judith Curry’s Blog

Zeke has an post over at Judith Curry’s blog where he makes a claim that “infill has no effect on CONUS-wide trends” (among other claims).

Zeke_Infilling_Curry

 

I disagree. Here are the 12 months comparing Estimated and Non-Estimated and then all the data. Blue = Final data (non-Estimated) Red = Final Data Estimated Green = All Final Data.

Infilling does change the trend. For example, Estimating changed the trend in Dec from .06C per decade to .07C per decade because the Estimated data had a trend of .15C/decade.

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1895-2013) Dec

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1895-2013) Nov

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1895-2013) Oct

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1895-2013) Sep

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1895-2013) Aug

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1895-2013) Jul

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1895-2013) Jun

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1895-2013) May

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1895-2013) Apr

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1895-2013) Mar

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1895-2013) Feb

USA USHCN Final v2.5.0.20140627 - tmax - FLs.52i (from 1895-2013) Jan