A quick update for sea ice extent for day 190 of 2014
NOAA Data here and here here. Graphs below. Click for bigger.
Nick Stoke and Zeke Hausfather don’t like my graphs showing a difference between Estimated (infilled) and non-Estimated (not infilled) USHCN data
Nick said:
“The difference between average estimated and average non-estimated, doesn’t reflect estimation. It just reflects changes in the kind of stations that were being estimated.
For some reason, they were more likely to be warmer. I don’t know why, but they were. It’s just the wrong way to do it.”
I’m not sure I believe in coincidences.
I believe Nick and Zeke both created an anomaly baseline for each month for each station. Nick used 1900 to 2013. Zeke said he used 1961-1990.
Neither of them added trend lines.
I believe both used all the data (infilled and non-infilled). (As of my posting this they had not confirmed). I disagree with that. Infilled data should not be used in the baseline.
As an example of what infilling does using the difference by station from the 1895-2013 baseline here is Dec 1998 to 2013 Tmax.
In this case, the real data had a downwards trend of -0.82C/decade and the infilled data was -0.64C/decade which is .18C/decade higher not because infilled data was hotter, but because it was less cold.
From 1895 to 2013 the infilled trend is consistently .02C/decade to .03C/decade higher than the non-infilled trend.
The red dots are higher on the 1980 and later side of the graph while they are lower on the pre-1960 part of the graph.
Cooling the past, warming the present.
July 9 2014 MASIE Update – Some regions froze a little.
Data here.
| Region | Start | End | Last 101 | Last 28 | Last 14 | Last 7 | Last 3 | Last 1 |
| Baffin Bay Gulf of St. Lawrence | 1,688,530 | 250,737 | -1,437,793 | -658,605 | -448,500 | -236,619 | -43,837 | 0 |
| Hudson Bay | 1,260,903 | 610,879 | -650,024 | -559,498 | -305,907 | -167,272 | -14,816 | 521 |
| Greenland Sea | 603,416 | 432,155 | -171,260 | -193,575 | -118,708 | -78,874 | -48,210 | -11,684 |
| Laptev Sea | 897,845 | 472,313 | -425,531 | -213,717 | -202,093 | -78,786 | -40,053 | -16,419 |
| Barents Sea | 645,917 | 109,185 | -536,732 | -155,345 | -61,750 | -68,561 | -7,746 | -924 |
| Kara Sea | 933,859 | 731,000 | -202,859 | -119,773 | -130,822 | -39,214 | 9,242 | 37,568 |
| Chukchi Sea | 966,006 | 709,240 | -256,766 | -157,563 | -39,239 | -35,027 | 3,907 | -475 |
| Beaufort Sea | 1,070,445 | 891,689 | -178,756 | -144,715 | -59,571 | -7,929 | 11,996 | 14,254 |
| Canadian Archipelago | 853,214 | 743,808 | -109,406 | -43,908 | -14,390 | -3,476 | 6,530 | 6,940 |
| Bering Sea | 697,324 | 8,943 | -688,380 | -72,766 | -23,812 | -2,371 | -4,462 | -468 |
| East Siberian Sea | 1,087,137 | 1,012,983 | -74,154 | -998 | -21,951 | -2,352 | -46 | 37 |
| Central Arctic | 3,221,921 | 3,227,093 | 5,172 | -15,005 | -15,714 | -2,067 | -4,366 | 2,275 |
| Baltic Sea | 15,337 | 0 | -15,337 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sea of Okhotsk | 853,240 | 0 | -853,240 | -20,538 | -32 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yellow Sea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Northern Hemisphere (Total) | 14,805,115 | 9,201,538 | -5,603,577 | -2,355,637 | -1,442,505 | -722,563 | -131,861 | 31,624 |
| NH (Average Loss per Day) | -54,937 | -84,130 | -103,036 | -103,223 | -43,954 | 31,624 |
A quick update for sea ice extent for day 188 of 2014
This is a chart of the number of daily records and 2nd,3rd etc. 2014 now has more daily records (First) than any other year.
2014 is in 3rd place for top 5 … but it is only July 8. 180 days to go in the year.
There are no daily records from before 2007!
| Year | First | Second | Third | Fourth | Fifth | Top 5 |
| 2014 |
121 |
25 | 13 | 28 | 1 | 188 |
| 2013 | 113 | 101 | 60 | 42 | 12 | 328 |
| 2008 | 59 | 82 | 29 | 19 | 19 | 208 |
| 2010 | 47 | 81 | 26 | 16 | 8 | 178 |
| 2007 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 36 |
| 2012 | 5 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 29 | 80 |
| 2009 | 0 | 6 | 41 | 43 | 34 | 124 |
| 2003 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 36 | 43 | 105 |
| 2006 | 0 | 27 | 29 | 21 | 12 | 89 |
| 2000 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 10 | 48 |
| 2005 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 8 | 14 | 46 |
| 1998 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 11 | 14 | 45 |
| 1996 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 8 | 16 | 43 |
| 1995 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 29 | 41 |
| 2001 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 38 |
| 1979 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 36 |
| 2004 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 36 |
| 1994 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 32 |
| 1988 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 | 27 |
| 1982 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 21 |
| 1985 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 19 |
| 1980 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 18 |
| 1984 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 |
| 1999 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 |
| 2011 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| 1981 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 1986 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 1991 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
NOAA Data here and here here. Graphs below. Click for bigger.
Have you ever read a paper on climate science and seen a sentence like this:
“We would like to emphasise that this study does not question the existence of a long-term anthropogenic warming trend during the 20th century.”
Guess what. That means the paper has probably been censored by the climate gatekeepers running the journals.
GWPF has the story from The Times:
“Research that questioned the accuracy of computer models used to predict global warming was “censored” by climate scientists, it was alleged yesterday.
One academic reviewer said that a section should not be published because it “would lead to unnecessary confusion in the climate science community”. Another wrote: “This entire discussion has to disappear.”
The paper suggested that the computer models used by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were flawed, resulting in human influence on the climate being exaggerated and the impact of natural variability being underplayed.”
A third reviewer was much more supportive of the paper, saying its “very provocative” suggestion that climate models were flawed was “so interesting that it needs to be discussed more fully”.
However, almost the entire paragraph was deleted, along with the conclusion that “the average sensitivity of the IPCC models may be too high”.
The journal chose to publish only the opening sentence: “We would like to emphasise that this study does not question the existence of a long-term anthropogenic warming trend during the 20th century.”
Zeke has an post over at Judith Curry’s blog where he makes a claim that “infill has no effect on CONUS-wide trends” (among other claims).
I disagree. Here are the 12 months comparing Estimated and Non-Estimated and then all the data. Blue = Final data (non-Estimated) Red = Final Data Estimated Green = All Final Data.
Infilling does change the trend. For example, Estimating changed the trend in Dec from .06C per decade to .07C per decade because the Estimated data had a trend of .15C/decade.
You all know that the AGW cult likes to go on and on about “Extreme Weather” because the warming stopped in 1998 and they like to think the world is coming to an end and only they can save us. Just another end of the world cult.
So I thought I would look at the same data for the weather station closest to my hometown on the west coast of Canada. The data only starts in the late 1940s so there is no extreme’s from the 1930s and 1940s.
One thing to remember. The 2361 Days Over 25C number (for example) includes the 506 Days Over 30C etc.
I don’t see any increase in extreme hot days. I don’t see any increase in extreme cold days.
Aside from 2 hot days in July 2009 (matched by the 3 days in the 1960s) and 1 cold day in 2008 matched by a day in 1968 it seems to have been getting less extreme.
A quick update for sea ice extent for day 185 of 2014
NOAA Data here and here here. Graphs below. Click for bigger.
sunshine hours 